As much as Conor McGregor vs. Nate Diaz is a battle between two of the UFC’s biggest trash talkers, it’s also a clash of styles. McGregor—who is jumping two weight classes to face Diaz—has promised to finish his opponent inside the first round.
It’s certainly possible. Here’s what McGregor must do to accomplish his goal, and what Diaz has to do to upset the Notorious One’s plans at UFC 196 on Saturday:
McGregor’s Keys to Victory
Keep It Standing
According to EA Sports, McGregor is the premier stand-up fighter in the UFC today:
You’d have to agree with the game developers. McGregor has captured 17 of his 19 wins via TKO/KO. While Diaz has a three-inch height and two-inch reach advantage, per FightMetric.com, McGregor is quicker with a more diverse array of strikes.
If he can keep the fight upright, McGregor has a great chance to win by stoppage.
End It Early
Only one man has ever gone the distance with McGregor. That was Max Holloway back in August 2013.
McGregor isn’t used to being dragged deep into fights. He had enough reserves in the tank to beat Chad Mendes at the end of the second round in July 2015. However, had the American survived the frame, who knows what would have happened in the third?
McGregor would be much better off ending this fight early rather than allowing Diaz to stick around.
Diaz’s Keys to Victory
Get the Fight to the Ground
Few have a Brazilian jiu-jitsu game that can rival Diaz’s. His long arms and skill level make him one of the most dangerous submission artists in the UFC.
Getting the fight to the ground could prove to be problematic. Diaz only has a 30 percent takedown accuracy rating. If he struggles to make this a ground fight, it’s going to be a tough night for Diaz.
Take McGregor Deep
While McGregor looks to be carrying the newfound weight well, Diaz is still more used to carrying 170 pounds, as he previously campaigned at welterweight. He too came up in weight class this time, but a 15-pound jump from lightweight is nothing compared to the 25-pound jump McGregor had. Diaz probably weighs close to 170 pounds normally.
Because of that, he may have a deeper gas tank. That’s all the more reason to take McGregor into the championship rounds. Facing a potentially weary and discouraged McGregor late in the fight would be the best-case scenario for Diaz.
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