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UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Mir staff picks and predictions
Check out who the Bloody Elbow staff is picking to win on tomorrow’s UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Mir card in Brisbane, Australia.
The majority of Bloody Elbow staff sees Mark Hunt getting the win over Frank Mir, although Artem Safarov, Tim Bissell, and Stephie Haynes are going with Mir. Only Artem and Tim Burke like Hector Lombard to beat Neil Magny in the UFC Brisbane co-main event. Come to think of it, Artem went against the grain for several of his predictions, as you’ll soon find out.
Note: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected on Friday. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Phil Mackenzie entered all of his predictions on Tuesday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he’s going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.
Mark Hunt vs. Frank Mir
Mookie Alexander: If it’s not a Hunt KO then it’s a Mir submission inside 2 minutes. I will not accept a world where Mir KOs Hunt or Hunt submits Mir. Hunt eventually lands his vaunted left hook and Mir will crumble, but who am I to say such a thing? I haven’t picked a Mir fight correctly in two years. Mark Hunt by KO, round 2.
Artem: I suppose that most of the team will probably choose Mark Hunt, because of his punching power and Frank’s weak chin. But for me, Frank Mir is a long-time personal hero. Who knows what he could have achieved if not for that unfortunate motorcycle accident. Frank’s first fight with lBrock Lesnar was so hyped and the submission he did was beyond the amazing – I still watch it from time to time. I know he is way beyond his prime, he’s old, and has taken too much damage. But for me it’s still the same Frank Mir who broke Nogueira’s arm, knocked out Todd Duffee and Bigfoot Silva. I will root for Mir in this fight, despite him meeting someone as dangerous as Mark Hunt. My pick is Frank Mir via TKO.
Tim Bis: I keep flip-flopping on this one. It feels very likely that Hunt will crack Mir inside the first five minutes, and then step back to watch as Mir falls to the canvas in what feels like bullet-time. However, I fear this fight might go ‘almost’ the distance and that the fifth round will look like the first round of Kimbo v. Dada. If that happens, I see both men going down in a heap against the cage and Hunt landing in some esoteric hold. Frank Mir by Tech. Submission (key lock), Round 5.
Fraser Coffeen: I just don’t know on this one to be honest. These are two guys who I really respect and generally like to pick even when the odds are stacked against them (who’s the only staff member to pick Hunt over Rothwell? That’s right) Against each other? That’s tough. The path to a Mir victory is crystal clear – make it a grappling game and get the submission. Hunt has vastly improved his sub defense, but this is Mir, and if Mir can get a good hold of him on the mat in the first round, he ends it. But I worry that Mir will opt to stand, and if he does, he’ll ultimately get overwhelmed. I don’t feel confident here. Mark Hunt, KO, R1
Zane Simon: It’s a heavyweight bout which means there are two options. On the one-side there’s all the sense and analysis. On the other there’s the fact that these are heavyweights. Mark Hunt no longer has the gear change or the dynamic snap to be the amazing standup force he once was, but he still has all the mechanics of a great striker and a ton of power to go with it. Mir has recently styled himself as something of a boxer. And he’s not a terrible one. But he’s still in the shallow end of a pool that Hunt has been swimming in for years when it comes to punching prowess. Add to it that Hunt seems to be putting himself into better and better shape, while Mir seems to be slowly dad-bodding his way into the twilight of his career and it’s hard not to imagine this as a long drawn out staring contest where Mir eventually tries something and gets cracked. Mark Hunt via KO, Round 3.
Staff picking Hunt: Nick, Mookie, Phil, Fraser, Zane, Tim Staff picking Mir: Artem, Tim Bis, Stephie
Hector Lombard vs. Neil Magny
Mookie Alexander: I’m concerned about Magny’s tendency to be quite hittable to the point of considerable trouble in stand-up exchanges (see: Gastelum and Lim fights), especially since Lombard hits really hard, but I can’t really see Lombard being creative enough to not just bumrush his way through his massive reach disadvantage. Under any circumstances, Magny is a really good and underrated wrestler, and it’ll be interesting to see how he fends off Lombard’s judo game (if he needs to at all). At this stage in their respective careers, Magny is the more well-rounded fighter and arguably more dynamic. Lombard has 1 round to win this or else Magny will have his way with him and just outwork the Cuban. Neil Magny by unanimous decision.
Tim Bis: Lombard has age and inactivity going against him, and despite having forty fights, I feel as if Magny has had the more valuable experiences. I see Magny being disciplined and sticking to his game plan (utilizing his nine-inch reach advantage) and frustrating Lombard for two rounds. If Lombard goes into panic mode to try and win this thing in the third, I see him charging into a clinch. Once Lombard locks up with Magny, I think he’ll be surprised by Magny’s strength and will elect to throw him on his head. On the ground, I like Magny’s chances to squirm for a choke. Neil Magny by Submission (RNC), Round 3.
Zane Simon: Lombard looks increasingly less like a killer waiting to pounce and more and more like a fighter with a very few powerful tools hoping he gets just the right chance to use them. He’s not in Hendo territory yet, but that’s the feeling I have going into this. That says nothing of his failed drug test, but more about his recent fight with Josh Burkman, where Lombard got very very little done, as Burkman largely kept moving. Not only can Magny move, but unlike Burkman, he puts out a steady stream of offense as he does it. His reach is cartoonishly long enough that I can see him just frustrating Lombard round after round as he plods along trying to cut off the cage in some meaningful way. Neil Magny by decision.
Staff picking Lombard: Artem, Tim Staff picking Magny: Nick, Tim Bis, Mookie, Phil, Fraser, Stephie, Zane
Johnny Case vs. Jake Matthews
Mookie Alexander: Case is a pretty solid all-around fighter who isn’t near contention right now, but is good enough to keep the Matthews prospect train halted a little longer. The last two fights for Matthews have been cause for concern in my view, and I think Case may be too much of a step up in competition, which mostly says a lot about Akbarh Arreola more than anything. Johnny Case by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: I like Jake Matthews a lot, he’s a good young prospect who could develop into a very good fighter. But right now he’s the guy that just barely survived a round against Akbarh Arreola and now gets a huge jump in competition. Johnny Case by decision.
Phil Mackenzie: That Arreola fight wasn’t a great one for Matthews because he needed to be completely reliant on his core abilities (grappling / pure athleticism) to get it done. As Scoggins-Borg shows, focusing just on grappling hits a wall at some point. I think that wall is here. Case isn’t the safest fighter in these situations- he’s happy to scramble and expose himself to danger, as in the Cabral fight, but he’s also capable of getting out of said danger and is a much much better striker, unless Matthews has magically improved. Feel like if Matthews gets this one done it’ll be a wacky sub which has Case supporters palming their foreheads. Johnny Case by unanimous decision.
Staff picking Case: Nick, Artem, Tim Bis, Mookie, Phil, Fraser, Stephie, Zane Staff picking Matthews: Tim
Antonio Carlos Junior vs. Daniel Kelly
Mookie Alexander: Wait, seriously? Why is this fight in Australia? This isn’t competitive whatsoever. Antonio Carlos Junior by knockout, round 2.
Zane Simon: This fight makes no sense and I feel a little bad for Kelly because unless he puts on the performance of his life, he’s not winning here. That said, I’m always down to watch a showcase beating. Antonio Carlos Junior via submission, Round 1.
Staff picking Junior: Nick, Artem, Tim Bis, Mookie, Phil, Fraser, Stephie, Zane, Tim Staff picking Kelly:
Steve Bosse vs. James Te-Huna
Mookie Alexander: I’m surprised this is a sweep for Te-Huna. He’s been objectively not good for a good while and Bosse can crack. That said, it’s a toss-up fight and I’ll go with James here. James Te Huna by KO, round 1.
Tim Bis: I think the first fighter to land a solid punch wins this one. Who’s the hammer and who’s the nail is a coin flip for me. *flips coin Te Huna by KO, Round 1.
Zane Simon: In a tossup slugfest between two guys coming off a loss, I’ll take the one without a billion miles on him and whose only KO losses are from gassing badly and from a clean head kick. I love Te Huna as much as the next guy for his great entrances and brawling style, but I’m not picking him against an equal athlete with a lot less miles and big power. Steve Bosse via KO, Round 1.
Tim Burke: THE BOSS IS BACK. Steve Bosse, epic KO, round 1
Phil Mackenzie: I don’t have all that much faith in Jimmy Tuna’s ability to win a brawl, but I do think he can hit takedowns on Bosse. When he fought Jimmo, for example, he won using a fairly consistent power takedown and top control game. Think he probably does the same here unless he decides to be very silly. James Te Huna by TKO, round 2.
Staff picking Bosse: Zane, Tim Staff picking Te-Huna: Nick, Artem, Tim Bis, Mookie, Phil, Fraser, Stephie
Seo Hee Ham vs. Bec Rawlings
Mookie Alexander: I’ve gone back-and-forth on this and feel like this is a fight Ham should win, but Rawlings is training at Alliance MMA and while I’d be surprised if Hamderlei is outstruck by Rowdy Bec, there is the chance that Rawlings is able to blend all facets of her game, as well as her physical advantages into a close victory. It’s not a terribly confident pick, though. Bec Rawlings by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: Here’s the thing with Bec Rawlings… She’s only won one decision in her career, it came with 3 minute rounds, and it as a majority decision. Beyond that she’s only won one fight outside of the first round. She has great aggression and a real size advantage here, but she doesn’t seem to know how to channel that into consistent round winning advantages. She’s also not a good range striker, but gets stuck there a lot. I just can’t trust her to beat a better athlete, with a more technical style, just because she’s big, tough, and aggressive. It hasn’t worked for her in the past. Seo Hee Ham via UD.
Phil Mackenzie: Hamderlei sold me on her ability to compete with big, sloppy, aggressive fighters last time out, and I think Casey is probably a better fighter than Rawlings (or at least has a higher ceiling). Hamderlei actually has some decent counterpunching craft so Seo Hee Ham by unanimous decision.
Mookie Alexander: This is probably another rout. O’Reilly isn’t particularly quick, agile, or good enough to go strike-for-strike with Jouban. Alan has his limitations, but he’s got heavy hands and I think he can put O’Reilly out early. Alan Jouban via KO, round 1.
Zane Simon: Speaking of sacrificial Australians. O’Reilly is a short, heavily muscled, but not overly powerful welterweight, who tends to win fights via cardio and aggression. Alan Jouban is more athletic, a better striker, a better grappler, and probably a pretty equal wrestler. I don’t see O’Reilly out-anything-ing Jouban. Alan Jouban via KO, Round 1.
Phil Mackenzie: What is with the bookings on this card. Did people only agree to go to Australia if they got fights where they were near-locks? O’Reilly is the lesser version of Walsh, and Jouban dusted Walsh in one round. So. Alan Jouban by KO, round 1.
Staff picking Jouban: Nick, Tim Bis, Mookie, Phil, Fraser, Stephie, Zane, Tim Staff picking O’Reilly: Artem
Mark Eddiva vs. Daniel Hooker
Mookie Alexander: Recent outcomes have changed my tune on Daniel. I am finally comfortable enough to trust Hookers! I certainly would trust one more than a Diva. Daniel Hooker by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: This is actually a really close fight. Both guys are interesting technical fighters and underwhelming physical fighters. Eddiva is a solid technical range kickboxer, who doesn’t keep range very well and can get dominated inside, especially since he’s willing to try and work there rather than get out. Hooker is an underwhelming range striker that works well in the clinch and on the mat, but doesn’t have the physical presence to keep anyone there. Still I think Eddiva’s inability to stay outside will play right into what Hooker does best. Daniel Hooker via submission.
Phil Mackenzie: Dan Hooker reminds me of no-one so much as Travis Browne with the toughness and cardio sliders turned up and the athleticism turned down. Essentially he’s just a random collection of weird finishing techniques. I have zero memories of him consistently winning exchanges in literally any of his UFC fights, but he’s super tough and he can do weird things like finishing Entwhistle from a leglock position, or booting Hioki in the head midway through a fight in which, let’s not forget, he was getting tuned up basically everywhere. Eddiva’s no technical marvel, particularly with respect to his grappling, but I feel like Hooker’s game has been backwards engineered around his striking and, uh, he’s not actually that good there. Anton hasn’t picked, so I’ll do it for him. Mark Eddiva by unanimous decision
Staff picking Eddiva: Artem, Phil Staff picking Hooker: Nick, Tim Bis, Mookie, Fraser, Stephie, Zane, Tim
Rin Nakai vs. Leslie Smith
Mookie Alexander: Unless Nakai grinds out Smith for 3 rounds, there’s not much reason to believe Rin Nakai beats many 135ers in the UFC. I mean, Smith is 5’9″ and Nakai is 5’1″!!! And Nakai’s striking is bad offensively. Smith isn’t a world-beater by any means, but I just can’t pick Nakai to win a UFC fight. Leslie Smith via unanimous decision.
Phil Mackenzie: Nakai’s fight against Tate was one of those ones where she competed more than you might have expected, while simultaneously not actually winning any of it. She’s incredibly short, a clunky striker but has a decent aggressive grappling game. Smith’s problems are largely defensive in nature, but she throws so damn much and Nakai will constantly be wading through punches. Leslie Smith by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: You have to pick Smith for this fight (I have no idea why the odds are so damn wonky), but I’m gonna go ahead and say I won’t be at all surprised if Nakai wins. Nakai is incredibly hard to move and is so safety-first at range, she doesn’t eat a lot of shots. Mostly, she just waits for her moment to duck in under a punch and land a takedown. Smith’s takedown D (especially when she’s swinging away) isn’t great. It’s not unreasonable to think that Nakai could just blanket Smith for three rounds. Still, Smith will work off her back and go for subs and strikes, she will work constantly on her feet and she will do so round after round after round. I have to pick Smith to win, but stranger things have happened. Leslie Smith via UD.
Staff picking Nakai: Staff picking Smith: Nick, Artem, Tim Bis, Mookie, Phil, Fraser, Stephie, Zane, Tim
Viscardi Andrade vs. Rich Walsh
Mookie Alexander: This card is just really not that good. If you want a fun fact out of this fight, Viscardi Andrade once lost by TKO to a welterweight Charles Oliveira back in 2008. Isn’t that amazing? Anyway, “Filthy” Rich Walsh, or “Filthy Dick” as I juvenilely prefer to call him, will get the win in a bit of a slog. Rich Walsh by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: I like Rich Walsh, but his game is absurdly limited. He’s a poor grappler, a poor wrestler, and a poor range striker. He’s footslow too. Basically, he’s a big tough dude who, if he can get a hand on you will dirty box your face off, but if he can’t will get himself in all sorts of weird trouble. Andrade is kind of a mess everywhere, but he’s a huge, athletically gifted welterweight who will keep a reasonable output at range and is willing to get really aggressive on the ground. I think he can take advantage of all the problems in Walsh’s game, while still being big and strong enough to stay out of the clinch for extended periods. Viscardi Andrade via submission, Round 2.
Phil Mackenzie: I flipped on this one a bit. I thought about picking him because he has the better “outer layer” in an acceptable jab and overhand, but I just can’t trust Andrade. I really hate the way he blunders forward into one strike and then blunders backwards covering up. His gas tank is atrocious and he was knackered after a terrible fight with Umalatov. I think people perhaps underrate what a big hitter he’s become though, so I think the basic outcomes are Andrade (T)KO round 1, or he just keeps trying to blunder into single strikes and gets increasingly exhausted over three rounds while Walsh steadily outworks him with kicks to the leg and body and clinch work. I don’t really like early KOs. Richard Walsh by unanimous decision.
Staff picking Andrade: Tim Bis, Zane, Tim Staff picking Walsh: Nick, Artem, Mookie, Fraser, Stephie, Phil
Chad Laprise vs. Ross Pearson
Mookie Alexander: Tough fight to pick. Apparently it’s at lightweight and not welterweight like Pearson and Laprise seemed to agree to on Twitter. Holding pattern for Pearson is Loss-Win-Loss-Win-Loss-Win-Loss-Win, you get the picture. He lost his last fight. I can’t argue with patterns. Ross Pearson by unanimous decision.
Phil Mackenzie: I can’t pick Ross fights for toffee, so I’m going to follow Connor’s lead on Heavy Hands, which is that Pearson has struggled with people who stay consistently on the outside. Beyond this, I thought Laprise’s fight against Trinaldo was more of a classic “getting caught” loss, but Pearson’s genuinely worried me. He’s gone out on his shield before, but he’s never been scared into just giving away a mediocre decision like that. This should be nip-tuck stuff. Chad Laprise by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: This is a good fight and I hate picking it. I have always carried a bit of a candle for Ross Pearson as the chirpy underdog of the UFC lightweight division. I like his pocket boxing style and he’s fun to root for. But he’s also damned perplexing. Laprise has his holes, his kickboxing isn’t as deep as it looks like it is, but if he stays on his back foot and keeps Pearson going forward, I’ll have to pick him to land enough to win rounds… I guess. Chad Laprise by decision.
Staff picking Laprise: Phil, Zane, Tim Staff picking Pearson: Mookie, Fraser, Stephie, Nick
Damien Brown vs. Alan Patrick
Mookie Alexander: There’s not much to suggest that Damien Brown is going to last long in the UFC, if even beyond this fight. He’s got no wins of note on his record and has lost to anyone even semi-notable. Australian MMA is decidedly not too stacked with talent, and I think it’s okay to say that. Alan Patrick by TKO, round 2.
Phil Mackenzie: Alan is huge and awkward and fairly consistent everywhere. Hard to finish or even hurt, and basically just not really the guy to show up against on short notice. Alan Patrick by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: Tough bout for Brown. And not just on short notice, but as a style match, Patrick is poison. Patrick potshots effectively at range against guys who can’t fight at range, grinds in the clinch and on the mat, and is a pretty decent, rangy athlete to boot. Brown does his best striking in the pocket, and doesn’t do it often. He’s a willing wrestler and grappler, but against better athletes he’s regularly gotten outworked on the mat. Patrick probably picks him off at range and works him in the clinch. Alan Patrick via UD.
Staff picking Brown: Artem Staff picking Patrick: Nick, Tim Bis, Mookie, Fraser, Stephie, Zane, Tim
Check out who the Bloody Elbow staff is picking to win on tomorrow’s UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Mir card in Brisbane, Australia.
The majority of Bloody Elbow staff sees Mark Hunt getting the win over Frank Mir, although Artem Safarov, Tim Bissell, and Stephie Haynes are going with Mir. Only Artem and Tim Burke like Hector Lombard to beat Neil Magny in the UFC Brisbane co-main event. Come to think of it, Artem went against the grain for several of his predictions, as you’ll soon find out.
Note: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected on Friday. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Phil Mackenzie entered all of his predictions on Tuesday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he’s going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.
Mark Hunt vs. Frank Mir
Mookie Alexander: If it’s not a Hunt KO then it’s a Mir submission inside 2 minutes. I will not accept a world where Mir KOs Hunt or Hunt submits Mir. Hunt eventually lands his vaunted left hook and Mir will crumble, but who am I to say such a thing? I haven’t picked a Mir fight correctly in two years. Mark Hunt by KO, round 2.
Artem: I suppose that most of the team will probably choose Mark Hunt, because of his punching power and Frank’s weak chin. But for me, Frank Mir is a long-time personal hero. Who knows what he could have achieved if not for that unfortunate motorcycle accident. Frank’s first fight with lBrock Lesnar was so hyped and the submission he did was beyond the amazing – I still watch it from time to time. I know he is way beyond his prime, he’s old, and has taken too much damage. But for me it’s still the same Frank Mir who broke Nogueira’s arm, knocked out Todd Duffee and Bigfoot Silva. I will root for Mir in this fight, despite him meeting someone as dangerous as Mark Hunt. My pick is Frank Mir via TKO.
Tim Bis: I keep flip-flopping on this one. It feels very likely that Hunt will crack Mir inside the first five minutes, and then step back to watch as Mir falls to the canvas in what feels like bullet-time. However, I fear this fight might go ‘almost’ the distance and that the fifth round will look like the first round of Kimbo v. Dada. If that happens, I see both men going down in a heap against the cage and Hunt landing in some esoteric hold. Frank Mir by Tech. Submission (key lock), Round 5.
Fraser Coffeen: I just don’t know on this one to be honest. These are two guys who I really respect and generally like to pick even when the odds are stacked against them (who’s the only staff member to pick Hunt over Rothwell? That’s right) Against each other? That’s tough. The path to a Mir victory is crystal clear – make it a grappling game and get the submission. Hunt has vastly improved his sub defense, but this is Mir, and if Mir can get a good hold of him on the mat in the first round, he ends it. But I worry that Mir will opt to stand, and if he does, he’ll ultimately get overwhelmed. I don’t feel confident here. Mark Hunt, KO, R1
Zane Simon: It’s a heavyweight bout which means there are two options. On the one-side there’s all the sense and analysis. On the other there’s the fact that these are heavyweights. Mark Hunt no longer has the gear change or the dynamic snap to be the amazing standup force he once was, but he still has all the mechanics of a great striker and a ton of power to go with it. Mir has recently styled himself as something of a boxer. And he’s not a terrible one. But he’s still in the shallow end of a pool that Hunt has been swimming in for years when it comes to punching prowess. Add to it that Hunt seems to be putting himself into better and better shape, while Mir seems to be slowly dad-bodding his way into the twilight of his career and it’s hard not to imagine this as a long drawn out staring contest where Mir eventually tries something and gets cracked. Mark Hunt via KO, Round 3.
Staff picking Hunt: Nick, Mookie, Phil, Fraser, Zane, Tim Staff picking Mir: Artem, Tim Bis, Stephie
Hector Lombard vs. Neil Magny
Mookie Alexander: I’m concerned about Magny’s tendency to be quite hittable to the point of considerable trouble in stand-up exchanges (see: Gastelum and Lim fights), especially since Lombard hits really hard, but I can’t really see Lombard being creative enough to not just bumrush his way through his massive reach disadvantage. Under any circumstances, Magny is a really good and underrated wrestler, and it’ll be interesting to see how he fends off Lombard’s judo game (if he needs to at all). At this stage in their respective careers, Magny is the more well-rounded fighter and arguably more dynamic. Lombard has 1 round to win this or else Magny will have his way with him and just outwork the Cuban. Neil Magny by unanimous decision.
Tim Bis: Lombard has age and inactivity going against him, and despite having forty fights, I feel as if Magny has had the more valuable experiences. I see Magny being disciplined and sticking to his game plan (utilizing his nine-inch reach advantage) and frustrating Lombard for two rounds. If Lombard goes into panic mode to try and win this thing in the third, I see him charging into a clinch. Once Lombard locks up with Magny, I think he’ll be surprised by Magny’s strength and will elect to throw him on his head. On the ground, I like Magny’s chances to squirm for a choke. Neil Magny by Submission (RNC), Round 3.
Zane Simon: Lombard looks increasingly less like a killer waiting to pounce and more and more like a fighter with a very few powerful tools hoping he gets just the right chance to use them. He’s not in Hendo territory yet, but that’s the feeling I have going into this. That says nothing of his failed drug test, but more about his recent fight with Josh Burkman, where Lombard got very very little done, as Burkman largely kept moving. Not only can Magny move, but unlike Burkman, he puts out a steady stream of offense as he does it. His reach is cartoonishly long enough that I can see him just frustrating Lombard round after round as he plods along trying to cut off the cage in some meaningful way. Neil Magny by decision.
Staff picking Lombard: Artem, Tim Staff picking Magny: Nick, Tim Bis, Mookie, Phil, Fraser, Stephie, Zane
Johnny Case vs. Jake Matthews
Mookie Alexander: Case is a pretty solid all-around fighter who isn’t near contention right now, but is good enough to keep the Matthews prospect train halted a little longer. The last two fights for Matthews have been cause for concern in my view, and I think Case may be too much of a step up in competition, which mostly says a lot about Akbarh Arreola more than anything. Johnny Case by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: I like Jake Matthews a lot, he’s a good young prospect who could develop into a very good fighter. But right now he’s the guy that just barely survived a round against Akbarh Arreola and now gets a huge jump in competition. Johnny Case by decision.
Phil Mackenzie: That Arreola fight wasn’t a great one for Matthews because he needed to be completely reliant on his core abilities (grappling / pure athleticism) to get it done. As Scoggins-Borg shows, focusing just on grappling hits a wall at some point. I think that wall is here. Case isn’t the safest fighter in these situations- he’s happy to scramble and expose himself to danger, as in the Cabral fight, but he’s also capable of getting out of said danger and is a much much better striker, unless Matthews has magically improved. Feel like if Matthews gets this one done it’ll be a wacky sub which has Case supporters palming their foreheads. Johnny Case by unanimous decision.
Staff picking Case: Nick, Artem, Tim Bis, Mookie, Phil, Fraser, Stephie, Zane Staff picking Matthews: Tim
Antonio Carlos Junior vs. Daniel Kelly
Mookie Alexander: Wait, seriously? Why is this fight in Australia? This isn’t competitive whatsoever. Antonio Carlos Junior by knockout, round 2.
Zane Simon: This fight makes no sense and I feel a little bad for Kelly because unless he puts on the performance of his life, he’s not winning here. That said, I’m always down to watch a showcase beating. Antonio Carlos Junior via submission, Round 1.
Staff picking Junior: Nick, Artem, Tim Bis, Mookie, Phil, Fraser, Stephie, Zane, Tim Staff picking Kelly:
Steve Bosse vs. James Te-Huna
Mookie Alexander: I’m surprised this is a sweep for Te-Huna. He’s been objectively not good for a good while and Bosse can crack. That said, it’s a toss-up fight and I’ll go with James here. James Te Huna by KO, round 1.
Tim Bis: I think the first fighter to land a solid punch wins this one. Who’s the hammer and who’s the nail is a coin flip for me. *flips coin Te Huna by KO, Round 1.
Zane Simon: In a tossup slugfest between two guys coming off a loss, I’ll take the one without a billion miles on him and whose only KO losses are from gassing badly and from a clean head kick. I love Te Huna as much as the next guy for his great entrances and brawling style, but I’m not picking him against an equal athlete with a lot less miles and big power. Steve Bosse via KO, Round 1.
Tim Burke: THE BOSS IS BACK. Steve Bosse, epic KO, round 1
Phil Mackenzie: I don’t have all that much faith in Jimmy Tuna’s ability to win a brawl, but I do think he can hit takedowns on Bosse. When he fought Jimmo, for example, he won using a fairly consistent power takedown and top control game. Think he probably does the same here unless he decides to be very silly. James Te Huna by TKO, round 2.
Staff picking Bosse: Zane, Tim Staff picking Te-Huna: Nick, Artem, Tim Bis, Mookie, Phil, Fraser, Stephie
Seo Hee Ham vs. Bec Rawlings
Mookie Alexander: I’ve gone back-and-forth on this and feel like this is a fight Ham should win, but Rawlings is training at Alliance MMA and while I’d be surprised if Hamderlei is outstruck by Rowdy Bec, there is the chance that Rawlings is able to blend all facets of her game, as well as her physical advantages into a close victory. It’s not a terribly confident pick, though. Bec Rawlings by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: Here’s the thing with Bec Rawlings… She’s only won one decision in her career, it came with 3 minute rounds, and it as a majority decision. Beyond that she’s only won one fight outside of the first round. She has great aggression and a real size advantage here, but she doesn’t seem to know how to channel that into consistent round winning advantages. She’s also not a good range striker, but gets stuck there a lot. I just can’t trust her to beat a better athlete, with a more technical style, just because she’s big, tough, and aggressive. It hasn’t worked for her in the past. Seo Hee Ham via UD.
Phil Mackenzie: Hamderlei sold me on her ability to compete with big, sloppy, aggressive fighters last time out, and I think Casey is probably a better fighter than Rawlings (or at least has a higher ceiling). Hamderlei actually has some decent counterpunching craft so Seo Hee Ham by unanimous decision.
Mookie Alexander: This is probably another rout. O’Reilly isn’t particularly quick, agile, or good enough to go strike-for-strike with Jouban. Alan has his limitations, but he’s got heavy hands and I think he can put O’Reilly out early. Alan Jouban via KO, round 1.
Zane Simon: Speaking of sacrificial Australians. O’Reilly is a short, heavily muscled, but not overly powerful welterweight, who tends to win fights via cardio and aggression. Alan Jouban is more athletic, a better striker, a better grappler, and probably a pretty equal wrestler. I don’t see O’Reilly out-anything-ing Jouban. Alan Jouban via KO, Round 1.
Phil Mackenzie: What is with the bookings on this card. Did people only agree to go to Australia if they got fights where they were near-locks? O’Reilly is the lesser version of Walsh, and Jouban dusted Walsh in one round. So. Alan Jouban by KO, round 1.
Staff picking Jouban: Nick, Tim Bis, Mookie, Phil, Fraser, Stephie, Zane, Tim Staff picking O’Reilly: Artem
Mark Eddiva vs. Daniel Hooker
Mookie Alexander: Recent outcomes have changed my tune on Daniel. I am finally comfortable enough to trust Hookers! I certainly would trust one more than a Diva. Daniel Hooker by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: This is actually a really close fight. Both guys are interesting technical fighters and underwhelming physical fighters. Eddiva is a solid technical range kickboxer, who doesn’t keep range very well and can get dominated inside, especially since he’s willing to try and work there rather than get out. Hooker is an underwhelming range striker that works well in the clinch and on the mat, but doesn’t have the physical presence to keep anyone there. Still I think Eddiva’s inability to stay outside will play right into what Hooker does best. Daniel Hooker via submission.
Phil Mackenzie: Dan Hooker reminds me of no-one so much as Travis Browne with the toughness and cardio sliders turned up and the athleticism turned down. Essentially he’s just a random collection of weird finishing techniques. I have zero memories of him consistently winning exchanges in literally any of his UFC fights, but he’s super tough and he can do weird things like finishing Entwhistle from a leglock position, or booting Hioki in the head midway through a fight in which, let’s not forget, he was getting tuned up basically everywhere. Eddiva’s no technical marvel, particularly with respect to his grappling, but I feel like Hooker’s game has been backwards engineered around his striking and, uh, he’s not actually that good there. Anton hasn’t picked, so I’ll do it for him. Mark Eddiva by unanimous decision
Staff picking Eddiva: Artem, Phil Staff picking Hooker: Nick, Tim Bis, Mookie, Fraser, Stephie, Zane, Tim
Rin Nakai vs. Leslie Smith
Mookie Alexander: Unless Nakai grinds out Smith for 3 rounds, there’s not much reason to believe Rin Nakai beats many 135ers in the UFC. I mean, Smith is 5’9″ and Nakai is 5’1″!!! And Nakai’s striking is bad offensively. Smith isn’t a world-beater by any means, but I just can’t pick Nakai to win a UFC fight. Leslie Smith via unanimous decision.
Phil Mackenzie: Nakai’s fight against Tate was one of those ones where she competed more than you might have expected, while simultaneously not actually winning any of it. She’s incredibly short, a clunky striker but has a decent aggressive grappling game. Smith’s problems are largely defensive in nature, but she throws so damn much and Nakai will constantly be wading through punches. Leslie Smith by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: You have to pick Smith for this fight (I have no idea why the odds are so damn wonky), but I’m gonna go ahead and say I won’t be at all surprised if Nakai wins. Nakai is incredibly hard to move and is so safety-first at range, she doesn’t eat a lot of shots. Mostly, she just waits for her moment to duck in under a punch and land a takedown. Smith’s takedown D (especially when she’s swinging away) isn’t great. It’s not unreasonable to think that Nakai could just blanket Smith for three rounds. Still, Smith will work off her back and go for subs and strikes, she will work constantly on her feet and she will do so round after round after round. I have to pick Smith to win, but stranger things have happened. Leslie Smith via UD.
Staff picking Nakai: Staff picking Smith: Nick, Artem, Tim Bis, Mookie, Phil, Fraser, Stephie, Zane, Tim
Viscardi Andrade vs. Rich Walsh
Mookie Alexander: This card is just really not that good. If you want a fun fact out of this fight, Viscardi Andrade once lost by TKO to a welterweight Charles Oliveira back in 2008. Isn’t that amazing? Anyway, “Filthy” Rich Walsh, or “Filthy Dick” as I juvenilely prefer to call him, will get the win in a bit of a slog. Rich Walsh by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: I like Rich Walsh, but his game is absurdly limited. He’s a poor grappler, a poor wrestler, and a poor range striker. He’s footslow too. Basically, he’s a big tough dude who, if he can get a hand on you will dirty box your face off, but if he can’t will get himself in all sorts of weird trouble. Andrade is kind of a mess everywhere, but he’s a huge, athletically gifted welterweight who will keep a reasonable output at range and is willing to get really aggressive on the ground. I think he can take advantage of all the problems in Walsh’s game, while still being big and strong enough to stay out of the clinch for extended periods. Viscardi Andrade via submission, Round 2.
Phil Mackenzie: I flipped on this one a bit. I thought about picking him because he has the better “outer layer” in an acceptable jab and overhand, but I just can’t trust Andrade. I really hate the way he blunders forward into one strike and then blunders backwards covering up. His gas tank is atrocious and he was knackered after a terrible fight with Umalatov. I think people perhaps underrate what a big hitter he’s become though, so I think the basic outcomes are Andrade (T)KO round 1, or he just keeps trying to blunder into single strikes and gets increasingly exhausted over three rounds while Walsh steadily outworks him with kicks to the leg and body and clinch work. I don’t really like early KOs. Richard Walsh by unanimous decision.
Staff picking Andrade: Tim Bis, Zane, Tim Staff picking Walsh: Nick, Artem, Mookie, Fraser, Stephie, Phil
Chad Laprise vs. Ross Pearson
Mookie Alexander: Tough fight to pick. Apparently it’s at lightweight and not welterweight like Pearson and Laprise seemed to agree to on Twitter. Holding pattern for Pearson is Loss-Win-Loss-Win-Loss-Win-Loss-Win, you get the picture. He lost his last fight. I can’t argue with patterns. Ross Pearson by unanimous decision.
Phil Mackenzie: I can’t pick Ross fights for toffee, so I’m going to follow Connor’s lead on Heavy Hands, which is that Pearson has struggled with people who stay consistently on the outside. Beyond this, I thought Laprise’s fight against Trinaldo was more of a classic “getting caught” loss, but Pearson’s genuinely worried me. He’s gone out on his shield before, but he’s never been scared into just giving away a mediocre decision like that. This should be nip-tuck stuff. Chad Laprise by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: This is a good fight and I hate picking it. I have always carried a bit of a candle for Ross Pearson as the chirpy underdog of the UFC lightweight division. I like his pocket boxing style and he’s fun to root for. But he’s also damned perplexing. Laprise has his holes, his kickboxing isn’t as deep as it looks like it is, but if he stays on his back foot and keeps Pearson going forward, I’ll have to pick him to land enough to win rounds… I guess. Chad Laprise by decision.
Staff picking Laprise: Phil, Zane, Tim Staff picking Pearson: Mookie, Fraser, Stephie, Nick
Damien Brown vs. Alan Patrick
Mookie Alexander: There’s not much to suggest that Damien Brown is going to last long in the UFC, if even beyond this fight. He’s got no wins of note on his record and has lost to anyone even semi-notable. Australian MMA is decidedly not too stacked with talent, and I think it’s okay to say that. Alan Patrick by TKO, round 2.
Phil Mackenzie: Alan is huge and awkward and fairly consistent everywhere. Hard to finish or even hurt, and basically just not really the guy to show up against on short notice. Alan Patrick by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: Tough bout for Brown. And not just on short notice, but as a style match, Patrick is poison. Patrick potshots effectively at range against guys who can’t fight at range, grinds in the clinch and on the mat, and is a pretty decent, rangy athlete to boot. Brown does his best striking in the pocket, and doesn’t do it often. He’s a willing wrestler and grappler, but against better athletes he’s regularly gotten outworked on the mat. Patrick probably picks him off at range and works him in the clinch. Alan Patrick via UD.
Staff picking Brown: Artem Staff picking Patrick: Nick, Tim Bis, Mookie, Fraser, Stephie, Zane, Tim
