Of course we’re all excited for the rematch between Conor McGregor and Nate Diaz. Of course.
But maybe, just maybe, heading into UFC 202 on Saturday, there isn’t quite the same level of heat between these main eventers as there was the first time around. And maybe fans are following that lead.
McGregor-Diaz 2 exemplifies a “moneyweight” fight. These bouts top cards with top stars—usually with no current champ involved and at least one person competing outside their typical weight class—but don’t bring a lot of other ramifications to the table.
But one should never forget: “Money fight” and “amazing fight” are not synonyms. As compelling as the individual matchup might be, the lack of stakes can undercut it if the heat isn’t there.
So as we head into the thick of an August fight week in Las Vegas, is the heat there? And what about the rest of the card, which is pretty darn compelling in its own right?
Here are four key storylines for UFC 202.
Where Does a Loss (or Win) Leave McGregor?
The alibi is there. McGregor writes off his two welterweight fights as a failed experiment and begins the slog back down to featherweight. A teeth-gritting title defense with a motivated Jose Aldo, among others, looms there.
But an alibi isn’t the same as an explanation. Or a justification.
The loss to Diaz forced Conor to shed his shell of glitz and swagger. No more suit shopping in Beverly Hills. No more Lambo riding. How about the indoor sunglasses? Nowhere in sight. Just regular old glasses.
There also appears to be a rededication to that thing. What’s that thing called? Oh, training. Truth be told, McGregor has always been an animal in the gym. It’s just that he has apparently rediscovered his inner animal.
As Chuck Mindenhall recently wrote of McGregor-Diaz 2 for MMA Fighting:
This time it’s a vanity trip with muffled stakes, a thing that has to play out so that we might see what the next thing is.
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McGregor wants to duplicate the setting so that he can avenge his only [UFC] loss without asterisks. If the public has been slow to understand the UFC’s reasoning for allowing one set of matchmaking whims (in a makeshift situation to save an event) grow into a series, McGregor has been patient in explaining it.
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Quite simply, he’s pored over the blueprint and is convinced, within a shadow of a doubt, that he knows better how to handle the situation the next time through. He wants to prove it.
Simply put, there’s a sense of obligation here that stands in opposition to the sense of fun that preceded the first go-around.
Diaz, meanwhile, is playing with house money, just like before. And just like before, there’s a lot of the house’s money on the table. According to MMA Fighting’s Shaun Al-Shatti, Diaz earned $600,000 with bonuses after UFC 196, which is a lot for an MMA fighter.
But beyond the literal, all the pressure is on McGregor and his team—McGregor‘s coach, John Kavanagh, recently upped that particular ante when he wrote: “My own reputation as a coach is at stake.”
The absolute worst-case scenario for Diaz, barring injury, is a rubber match that will present each man a key to the U.S. Bureau of Engraving and Printing.
Diaz is the gamest of game fighters. He’s a proud competitor and wants to win. He certainly deserves these paydays in an industry where big paydays are hard to come by.
But make no mistake: He’s just a passenger on this ride.
It’s pretty clear these two men respect each other a great deal, which, while cool to see, further dampens the sizzle. It’s equally clear how seriously McGregor is taking this chance to clear his record while further enhancing his brand.
Time, and UFC 202, will tell whether this was a scenic route or a dicey detour in his career path.
With Jon Jones Gone, Big Title Implications in Co-Main Event
Mark Hunt. Derrick Lewis. John Lineker. Anthony Johnson.
You can rearrange them how you like, but those are the hardest hitters in the UFC right now.
Among that set, “Rumble” Johnson is probably the most athletic and well-rounded. Just don’t make him run any marathons, and we’re all set.
With 15 of his 21 pro wins coming by knockout—including 11 in the first round—it’s clear your head is his target. And with both hands, both knees and both legs at his disposal, he has plenty of weapons to lock on.
On the other side, Glover Teixeira’s game is not exactly a living tapestry of technical theory made flesh. But he’s still one heck of a tough out in the light heavyweight division. When you can stalk just about anyone back to the fence and your right hand is that potent, why would you ever need to lift your feet off the mat?
Getting back to the light heavyweight division, it’s probably the thinnest weight class in the UFC right now—especially with Jon Jones once again wayward in the Swamps of Sadness.
Try this little stat bundle on for size: Among the top 15 light heavyweights in the official UFC rankings, eight are coming off a loss. Six are age 35 or older. One is 40. Two of them haven’t even fought in 2016. It’s an old, brittle, talent-poor division.
That’s probably why champ Daniel Cormier said in a July press conference: “I think I’ll probably fight the winner of Rumble and Glover Teixeira. It just seems like it makes the most sense.”
With Jones out of the picture for gosh knows how long, this just became the best matchup not including Cormier—or maybe including Cormier—in this division. And with two guys who can close the curtain anytime, paced by the devastating Johnson, fans need to have the popcorn popped before this one jumps off.
Cowboy’s Great Welterweight Experiment Continues
Now this move up to welterweight made all the sense in the world.
So far, so good for Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone, welterweight fighter. After spending the first decade of his career at lightweight, the 33-year-old got manhandled by champ Rafael Dos Anjos last December and decided it was time for a change.
Cerrone‘s coach, Greg Jackson, spoke to Bloody Elbow about the rationale for the change:
I think that we just had to re-evaluate what was going on after [the Dos Anjos fight]. Cowboy is really smart. People see all this jumping out of airplanes and doing all the fun stuff that he loves to do, but he’s actually a really sharp guy. He’s very self-aware and self-reflective, so he was like, “You know, I think I need to move up, I think that these are the reasons why.” They made sense and I was all for it.
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I think that he was getting so light that he was just wasn’t feeling confident. He wouldn’t open up, he was worried about getting gassed out, I think it’s all of these things that moving up a weight class is really going to help him with. I think that he’s going to be stronger, more healthy, his body is going to be able to absorb damage better, [and] I think it’s an all-around good move.
The bigger, more powerful, more durable Cerrone is 2-for-2 at 170 pounds, with a first-round submission, a third-round knockout and two post-fight performance bonuses on the ledger. That’s called filling the stat sheet.
Cerrone (30-7-0, 1 NC) faces the toughest welterweight of his young welterweight career in Rick Story. Story is a tough-as-nails wrestle-boxer who can pressure an opponent for the duration of a fight. That could be trouble for Cerrone, who’s at his best when he has space to launch his muay thai.
If Cerrone can defeat Story, he’s a bona fide welterweight contender after only three fights.
Meet A Bunch of Other Welterweights
Half of the evening’s 12 bouts take place at 170 pounds. Interestingly, though, only three of the 12 welters at UFC 202 appear in the division’s official top 15.
There are a few different reasons for that. A lack of talent is not one of those reasons. So don’t sleep on these guys, guys.
This division is as deep as light heavyweight is shallow.
Take Hyun Gyu Lim, for example. That’s right, I said Hyun Gyu Lim. The Korean (13-5-1) is a wickedly hard hitter with 10 career knockouts to his name and a 3-2 UFC record against surprisingly stiff competition. Lim gets no cakewalk on Saturday when he takes on 24-year-old prospect Mike Perry, who makes his UFC debut after knocking out the first six opponents of his career. Don’t blink for that one.
Don’t blink for Tim Means, either. The wildly aggressive and well-rounded Means has never been in a boring fight, and it’s good to have him back after a doping suspension from the United States Anti-Doping Agency.
And then, of course, we have the great Neil Magny, heading up the UFC Fight Pass portion of the undercard. All Magny has done is go 10-1 over the past two years. That’s a blistering pace and a remarkable record of success.
His reward for that string? A tangle with Dong Hyun Kim, who likes to balance his unbreakable judo with a tendency to be an utterly wild and unpredictable striker. He’s like a knuckleball pitcher who occasionally uncorks a 95-mph heater at your skull. So that’s fun.
Finally, don’t overlook Colby Covington vs. Max “Pain” Griffin, also on Fight Pass.
These are interesting prospects in the division. The 28-year-old Covington (9-1) was a two-time wrestling All-American at Oregon State and is 4-1 since joining the UFC in 2014. The 30-year-old Griffin (12-2) makes his UFC debut after a successful run on the California circuit, punctuated by eight stoppage wins and, most recently, a 43-second knockout of UFC veteran David Mitchell.
No matter what happens in these six welterweight bouts on Saturday, you know you’re getting good product with a division this talent-dense and with so many moving parts.
Plus, you have to learn the new names at welterweight, what with McGregor and Diaz probably dropping down soon and all.
Scott Harris writes about MMA for Bleacher Report. For more stuff like this, follow Scott on Twitter.
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