Filed under: UFC
This season of The Ultimate Fighter didn’t do well in the ratings, but Saturday’s Ultimate Fighter Finale looks like a very good fight card, with an outstanding lightweight fight serving as the main event, and what appears to be a compelling matchup in the finals of the Season 13 tournament.
What: The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesnar vs. Team dos Santos Finale
When: Saturday, the undercard starts around 6 PM ET and the Spike TV card starts at 9 PM ET.
Where: Palms Casino Resort, Las Vegas
Predictions on the five televised fights below.
Clay Guida vs. Anthony Pettis
Pettis burst onto the scene in 2010, going 4-0, getting profiled on MTV’s The World of Jenks and finishing the year by defeating Ben Henderson for the WEC lightweight title and unveiling his incredible “Showtime Kick” in the process. But 2011 hasn’t been as kind to Pettis, as the lightweight title shot he was promised was taken away from him when Gray Maynard and Frankie Edgar fought to a draw.
Now Pettis enters the UFC for a fight with Guida, who’s probably his toughest opponent to date. Guida is on a three-fight winning streak, and if Guida wins this one he’d be close to a title shot of his own. So this is a very relevant fight for the lightweight title picture.
And it’s a fight that I see going to Pettis, whose ability to submit people off his back matches up nicely with Guida’s biggest weakness, which is that he gets sloppy on the ground and leaves himself open to submissions. I’m picking Pettis to tap Guida with a triangle choke.
However, if this fight goes the distance, don’t be surprised if we see a controversial decision in favor of Guida: It’s easy to see this becoming the type of fight where Guida throws more strikes and spends more time on top on the ground, while Pettis lands more strikes and is more active off his back, and the judges rewarding Guida even though Pettis was more effective. That’s why I’m hoping this fight won’t end up in the judges’ hands.
Pick: Pettis
Ramsey Nijem vs. Tony Ferguson
Nijem and Ferguson looked like the two best fighters in the house throughout the 13th season of The Ultimate Fighter, so it’s no surprise to see them here fighting in the Finale. Ferguson has powerful striking and a great instinct for knowing how to finish his opponents, and it’s entirely possible that he could hit Nijem hard and win by TKO. But I like Nijem to use his wrestling background, establish positional control and grind out a decision.
Pick: Nijem
Kyle Kingsbury vs. Fabio Maldonado
Maldonado is on an 11-fight winning streak, including a TKO win over James McSweeney in his UFC debut in October. But Kingsbury, a competitor on Season 8 of The Ultimate Fighter, has very quietly gone on a three-fight winning streak of his own, and I think he’s going to keep it going here.
Pick: Kingsbury
Ed Herman vs. Tim Credeur
Herman has been with the UFC for five years, since competing on Season 3 of The Ultimate Fighter, while Credeur, a veteran of Season 7 of The Ultimate Fighter, has been with the promotion for three years. Unfortunately, the loser of this one is probably going to see his time in the UFC come to an end: Both are coming off losses, injuries and almost two years of inactivity. I think Herman, as the younger of the two, is more likely to make a full recovery and shake off his ring rust.
Pick: Herman
Chris Cope vs. Chuck O’Neill
This is the third-place match for The Ultimate Fighter, as Cope and O’Neill were the semifinalists who lost to Nijem and Ferguson. I was a little surprised this fight made the main televised card, as I’m not sure either of them is quite ready for the big time just yet, but I like Cope to pull out a decision.
Pick: Cope
%VIRTUAL-Gallery-125291%