Filed under: UFC
With his win over Jake Shields on Saturday night, Jake Ellenberger vaulted himself into any conversation about future UFC welterweight title contenders. The 53-second destruction carried with it a pointed message about Ellenberger’s style. He is undoubtedly an excellent wrestler, but his powerful striking makes him a serious double-threat. Those attributes will make him a matchup nightmare in the future as he attempts to continue his ascent.
Realistically, there’s still at least a win or two ahead of him until he can demand a shot at gold. That’s because of two things: 1) the win over Shields was his first over a top 10 opponent, and 2) there are still others between him and the top.
The question then is who might be next. On Monday’s edition of The MMA Hour, Ellenberger said that he would like to fight again before the end of the year. One problem with that is nearly all of the division’s key fighters are otherwise occupied.
St-Pierre faces Carlos Condit about one month from now. On the same night, Nick Diaz will fight BJ Penn. Jon Fitch, who might have been the ideal matchup for Ellenberger, fights Johny Hendricks on Dec. 30. Diego Sanchez is out with a broken hand, Josh Koscheck has an upcoming date with Matt Hughes, and Martin Kampmann and Rory MacDonald have November and December bouts, respectively.
We’re not sure what that leaves Ellenberger, but it means either he’ll have to take a non-marquee matchup, or wait a while.
Jake Ellenberger
Fitch makes the most sense for Ellenberger, but with that unlikely, there are two possibilities. The first is that the UFC tells Ellenberger to stay in fighting shape and prepare to replace someone on short notice if an injury crops up. Given all the high-profile divisional fights coming up, that is a real possibility. But with the amount of cards they have to fill in future months, that might not be a luxury they can afford. So Ellenberger might have to settle for someone with top 10 talent, if not ranking.
Prediction: I’m going to hedge my bets here. If Koscheck beats Hughes on Saturday, Ellenberger vs. Koscheck might be the way to go. My backup option is that he faces the winner of October 1’s Anthony Johnson vs. Charlie Brenneman bout.
Jake Shields
The first thing Shields deserves is some time to be with his family after the passing of his father, Jack, just two weeks before his fight. When he’s ready to return, the welterweight division will probably still be the wild jungle it is now. But after losing two in a row, Shields will be in serious need of a win. Regardless of who he matches up with, it’s not going to be an easy fight.
Prediction: Shields either faces BJ Penn if Penn loses to Diaz, or Carlos Condit, if he loses to Georges St-Pierre.
Erik Koch
The Duke Roufus product has wowed many since his first days on the international scene when he entered the WEC. His win over Jonathan Brookins showed that his offensive arsenal continues to grow and his all-around game continues to round out, something you want to see from a 22-year-old. A particularly positive sign was his ability to stuff the takedown, denying all but one of Brookins’ 20 attempts. Given his striking skills, that sustained development can only help him.
Prediction: Koch fights the winner of November’s Dustin Poirier vs. Pablo Garza fight in early 2012.
Alan Belcher
It’s hard to imagine the emotions that ran through Belcher after winning coming off a 16-month layoff due to a serious eye injury. Frankly speaking, it was a bout Belcher was expected to win, but you never quite know if an athlete will return gun-shy until he engages. There were no such problems for Belcher, who steamrolled Jason MacDonald in less than four minutes.
Prediction: Belcher signs to face Rousimar Palhares.
Court McGee
McGee’s win over Dongi Yang on Saturday was a solid step forward in his career, as Yang is a durable if unspectacular opponent. McGee mostly out-struck Yang during the three-rounder but truly shined with his excellent conditioning, taking over the bout in the final minutes to seal the win. That victory moved him to 3-0 in the UFC, meaning it’s time to advance him up a level in competition.
Prediction: Ed Herman has two stoppage wins in 2011 and no currently scheduled bout. That sounds about right for McGee.
Evan Dunham
Dunham needed a win in the worst way, and got one in workmanlike fashion over Shamar Bailey. Once considered a rising contender, Dunham still has some work to do to win back the doubters who were once in his corner. To do that, he’s going to have to beat a name fighter with a solid reputation. Fortunately for him, there’s no shortage of those in his division.
Prediction: A date with Cole Miller is in his future.