Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen
The headliner for UFC 148 is one of the most anticipated fights in UFC history. The first title fight between Anderson Silva and Chael Sonnen was a classic and the storylines have only continued to grow since then. Sonnen has served as the provocateur for the rivalry between these two with his constant verbal attack through any media outlet that will broadcast or print his increasingly impressive arsenal of trash talk. Until recently, Silva has played the role of the professional fighter remaining calm and promising to do his talking in the octagon. But that changed in the last few weeks as Silva has either joined into to the promotion efforts or genuinely snapped after two years of listening to Chael’s undeniably creative ranting. Either way, the entertainment value leading up to this fight is the best since Chuck Liddell and Tito Ortiz set the standard for MMA rivalries.
When breaking down a rematch, the most important thing to look at is the first fight. The first fight between Sonnen and Silva was one of the greatest in UFC history and probably was the greatest come from behind victory in UFC history considering the stakes. It cannot be understated how significant Sonnen’s control of the fight was up until the moment Silva locked up the triangle that saved his belt late in the fifth round. Every round played out exactly the same with Sonnen aggressively closing the distance on Silva with punches and pushing him up against the cage before landing a takedown. I’m not often shocked by what I see in a fight but I will never forget having to admit to myself in about the third round that Chael Sonnen was outstriking Anderson Silva. Silva obviously has the advantage in technique and the margin is about equal to the length of the wall in China. But Sonnen was relentless and never gave Silva a chance to settle into a rhythm, which resulted in Silva maybe landing one or two off balance shots as Sonnen was rushing him and landing combinations. Sonnen then used that pressure to get Silva off balance and put him on his back. From there, Sonnen focused more on maintaining control rather than finishing and hammer fisted his way to an unquestionable four round to zero lead. The fifth round started exactly the same as the others. By this time, I was actually squatting on my haunches six inches in front of the TV because I couldn’t believe what I was seeing. And then, out of nowhere, Silva slipped his legs around Sonnen’s neck. Sonnen seemed caught off guard and failed to defend until it was too late. Even more surprisingly, he panic tapped almost immediately and never gave himself a chance to escape. He tapped like it was a training session. He seemed to suddenly realize that he was minutes away from the most important victory of his career and tried to pretend he didn’t tap but he had and in a span of about ten seconds, Anderson Silva went from a certain defeat to one of the most unbelievable victories in UFC history. If Silva was trying to crush Sonnen’s soul as pay back for all the trash talk, he couldn’t have come up with a better way to do it.
That leads us to this fight. Anderson Silva is a smart fighter and he trains at one of the best camps in the world. He will learn from his mistakes in the first fight. But Sonnen is also a smart fighter and he also trains at one of the best camps in the world. The pressure is on him to come up with a strategy that will be as successful as the one he employed in the first fight. If he employs the same strategy, he will likely find himself hurt by Silva’s pinpoint counterstriking ability, which he will have undoubtedly been honing in his camp for this fight. Sonnen’s aggression caught the champion by surprise in the first fight but he will be prepared for it this time. Sonnen will likely have to come up with a new way to set up his takedowns if he wants to achieve a similar level of success as he did in the first fight. And if he does, expect Silva to be more aggressive with submission attempts in the earlier rounds. Sonnen has been susceptible to triangles and armbars throughout his career and Silva has the jiu-jitsu skills to lock up Sonnen if he leaves an opening. But Sonnen should be drilling those fundamental defensive grappling skills hard in his camp so Silva may have to work harder if he wants to find that opening.
The odds on this fight currently have Silva favored at -290 with Sonnen the underdog at +240. Silva is clearly the favorite and the line is appropriate but the possibility exists that Sonnen’s skill set is the kryptonite for the middleweight champion. Most people thought Frankie Edgar’s split decision victory over BJ Penn was a fluke and that Penn would dominate in the rematch. It took ten full rounds for Edgar to convince the MMA world that he was better than the legend. That’s probably not an entirely fair analogy because Chael Sonnen is much more of a known entity now than Frankie Edgar was heading into his fights with BJ Penn. But the point remains that no one should be completely stunned if Sonnen is able to do exactly what he did in the first fight and then continue that for the three minutes it would have taken to earn a victory the first time around. He has proven that he can beat Anderson Silva and if he does, it can’t be considered a fluke. But the more likely outcome is that Silva harnesses all the energy and motivation he has displayed in the last week and releases it in one devastatingly accurate strike on Sonnen’s face. Either way, if this fight can find a way to live up to all of the hype, the MMA community will be in for an exciting and possible even historic night.
Tito Ortiz vs. Forrest Griffin
Fight fans love trilogies and as the warm up for the night’s main event, the UFC is giving us a third fight between veterans Forrest Griffin and Tito Ortiz. Realistically, this is probably not going to be a great fight. But this is the type of fight that makes enough sense from a historical perspective to outweigh what the actual quality of the fight might be. Both of these fighters have earned their place in the history of the UFC. Tito Ortiz is one of the original stars of MMA and has done as much to increase its popularity as any other individual fighter. Forrest Griffin took part in the critical mass moment for the UFC when he fought Stephan Bonnar on the original Ultimate Fighter finale. Both are former champions in the 205 pound division. They have fought each other twice before with each earning a split decision victory. Both men might retire after the fight. For all of those reasons, this fight makes sense and deserves second billing on a major card.
As far as the actual fight analysis, we’ve already seen this fight twice. Tito Ortiz is a solid wrestler whose striking and jiu-jitsu have improved greatly over the course of his career. His greatest asset has always been his ground and pound and he will look to utilize it in this fight. Forrest Griffin generally prefers to keep his fights standing but he too is capable on the ground. Expect to see all areas of the game explored in this fight. Expect to see both fighters on their backs at some point. Expect to see both fighters land strikes on the feet. Basically, expect more of what we saw in their first two fights. The fight will likely be decided by who can gain an advantage in where the fight takes place. If Ortiz can land enough takedowns and do some damage from top position, he’ll earn the victory. If Griffin can keep the fight standing, he will have the striking advantage and he’ll earn the victory. This is a classic “who can impose his will” type of situation.
Forrest Griffin comes into this fight as the significant favorite at -320 and Ortiz is the underdog at +260. Griffin deserves to be the favorite but I’m not sure why the line is so far in his favor. Ortiz is perfectly capable of winning this fight. These two men have fought a total of six rounds and three of those have been scored for Ortiz so he’s capable of taking two out of three on Saturday night. That said, Griffin should be able to use his defensive wrestling to keep the fight standing and strike his way to a decision victory. But if Ortiz can land his takedowns, the complexion of this fight will change drastically.
