Author: admin

	MMABettingBlog	WatchKalibRun	MMAConvert	MiddleEasy	MMAAdNet	MMAValor	MMAMafia	Total
Kenny Florian vs. Takanori Gomi	Florian	–	Florian	Florian	Gomi	Florian	Florian	Florian 83%
Roy Nelson vs. Stefan Struve	Nelson	–	Nelson	Nelson	Nelson	Nelson	Nelson	Nelson 100%
Yushin Okami vs. Lucio Linhares	Okami	–	Okami	Linhares	Okami	Okami	Okami	Okami 83%
Gleison Tibau vs. Caol Uno	Tibau	–	Tibau	Tibau	Uno	Tibau	Tibau	Tibau 83%
Nate Quarry vs. Jorge Rivera	Quarry	–	Quarry	Rivera	Quarry	Quarry	Quarry	Quarry 83%
Ross Pearson vs. Dennis Siver	Pearson	–	Pearson	Pearson	Pearson	Pearson	Pearson	Pearson 100%
Jason High vs. Charlie Brenneman	High	–	High	High	High	Brenneman	High	High 83%
Gerald Harris vs. Mario Miranda	Harris	–	Harris	Harris	Harris	Harris	Miranda	Harris 83%
Andre Winner vs. Rafaello Oliveira	Winner	–	Oliveira	Winner	Winner	Winner	Winner	Winner 83%
Rob Emerson vs. Nik Lentz	Lentz	–	Emerson	Emerson	Emerson	Lentz	Lentz	EVEN
Ronnys Torres vs. Jacob Volkmann	Volkmann	–	Torres	Volkmann	Torres	Torres	Torres	Torres 67%
Tiebreak	Florian/UD	–	Florian/UD	Florian/UD	Gomi/KO/2	Florian/TKO/2	Florian/UD	–
Total	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–

UFC 111 – St. Pierre VS. Hardy takes place this Saturday, March 27 in the Garden State.  For those of you who have suffered through the UFC’s recent title fight drought (except for you BJ, thanks!), UFC 111 gives us not one but TWO belt-worthy contests.

The main event features seemingly unstoppable UFC Welterweight champion George “Rush” St. Pierre squaring off against sledgehammer handed Dan “Outlaw” Hardy.  The co-main event is an interim Heavyweight title bout between Frank Mir and Shane Carwin.  Due to Thiago Alves’ last minute health issues, Jon Fitch will now be facing Ben Saunders.

As always, these picks are the opinion of one man.  Follow my betting advice with discretion and only wager as much as you feel comfortable losing.  I will only be writing predictions and betting analysis for those bouts in which I believe have betting value.  If you want more information on the card in its entirety, check out MMAMoneyLine’s “Pros’ Picks” for UFC 111.  Without further adieu, here are MMAMoneyLine’s official picks and betting analysis for UFC 111 – St. Pierre VS. Hardy

Frank Mir VS. Shane Carwin

In what has become a pattern in the UFC’s Heavyweight division, a wily, talented veteran is facing the young, hungry, up and coming contender (see Mir/Lesnar, Nogueira/Velasquez, Gonzaga/Carwin, Gonzaga/dos Santos, Filipovic/dos Santos etc.).  We all know what Frank Mir is capable of:  world class BJJ coupled with improved striking and added strength.  Shane Carwin is a bit more of a wildcard.  Carwin has scary wrestling and ground and pound coupled with the kind of KO power rarely seen in any fighter.  However, because all of his fights have ended via KO in the first round, we don’t have any solid evidence of his stamina or submission defense.  At least the Gonzaga fight showed us he can take a hard shot.

It is going to be difficult to convince me that this fight is going to be any different than Lesnar/Mir II.  No matter how much mass Mir gains, how much strength he adds or how often he drills wrestling, he is still going to be out-muscled and out wrestled by Carwin.

I can’t imagine Frank Mir’s gameplan being anything but utilizing his newly found/possibly overrated striking and reverting to his submission game if the situation presents itself.  Mir will be the more technical striker of the two but as we’ve seen in the Gonzaga fight in particular, Carwin can knock out a big, tough Heavyweight with very short punches.

If you’re betting Mir in this fight, you’re assuming two things:  Mir has the technical striking and defense to outwork Carwin to a five round decision and Mir has the ability to submit Carwin if Shane gets sloppy.  I wholeheartedly agree with the second point, but the first one is very unlikely.  If this fight was three rounds, Mir might have a better shot.  However, Carwin’s extensive wrestling background and training leads me to believe he will have a bigger gas tank than the former champ.

This fight begins and ends on the feet, where Mir uses his striking effectively for a bit but eventually gets caught with a right hand.  Carwin drops Mir and capitalizes with fierce ground and pound, not giving Mir a chance for a submission and eventually rendering him bloody and unconscious.

My pick:  Shane Carwin via TKO in the second

Betting play: I was pretty surprised at this line when it came out, and still am pretty shocked that it hasn’t moved much.  There is a lot of faith in Mir in this contest, and I just don’t see it.  MMAMoneyLine recommends a healthy bet on Carwin at +130 at SportBet.

Kurt Pellegrino VS. Fabricio Camoes

In a newly appointed main card bout, former Lightweight contender Kurt Pellegrino looks to use his wrestling to grind out talented Brazilian Fabricio Camoes.  However, that may be easier said than done.  Camoes is being grossly underrated here judging by his line.  His first and only UFC fight was a draw against veteran Caol Uno, a fight he would have won if it weren’t for a foul resulting in a point deduction.

Both of these fighters are very well rounded and dangerous in any position.  Pellegrino is the more technical striker, but Camoes has more explosive, powerful striking.  Pellegrino has the wrestling edge, but not by much as Camoes is a more than competent grappler.  If this fight hits the mat (which it most certainly will), both of these guys are about dead even.  Camoes is arguably the more accomplished BJJ player, but Pellegrino is also a black belt and has handled BJJ black belts before.

Sound like a coin flip to you?  Sounds like one to me.  The -215/+205 Pellegrino/Camoes line says different, and looks like an edge for us bettors.  I still think Pellegrino wins this fight about 55% of the time, but the smart money is on Camoes.  As a side note, Performify over at MMAJunkie has an interesting story about Fabricio Camoes that may change your opinion of the O-O-1 UFC fighter.

My pick:  Pellegrino via split decision

Betting play: Camoes at +205 is a very good line.  MMAMoneyLine recommends a small play on Morango at Sportsbook.

 

Ricardo Almeida VS. Matt Brown

In one of the most competitive and polarizing fights on the UFC 111 card, BJJ wizard Ricardo Almeida will tangle with consummate bad ass Matt Brown.  This fight will be Almeida’s maiden voyage in the UFC’s Welterweight division against a fellow converted Middleweight in Brown.

There’s two popular schools of thought here:  Almeida is going to turn Brown into a pretzel with his world class BJJ or Brown is going to switch Almeida’s lights off.  Almeida’s BJJ is some of the best in mixed martial arts, and he has the ability to submit anyone on any given day.  However, his wrestling and striking leave a lot to be desired.  Also, one has to wonder how Almeida will handle the weight cut.

While Almeida is a bit of a question mark, we know what to expect from Matt Brown.  Heavy handed, tough as nails and surprisingly well rounded.  Brown has good takedown and submission defense, but how much will that matter against a BJJ player on the level of Almeida?

Cachorrao has one clear cut road to finishing this fight.  However, he is going to have to get through the Immortal’s formidable striking, takedown defense and strength advantage.  I do not fall into either of the previous popular schools of thought, I believe this fight will be competitive for the first round or two with Brown catching Almeida late with a chin blast.  You need more than one tool to make it to the next level, and trying to utilize that one tool when weak and tired is even more difficult.

My pick:  Matt Brown via 3rd round KO

Betting play: Brown’s best odds are +140 at 5Dimes.  MMAMoneyLine likes a bet on Brown at 42% considering he should be at worst even.

 

Rodney Wallace VS. Jared Hamman

Most people think this is a 50/50 fight.  Allow me to make the case on why it isn’t.  In your standard wrestler versus striker fight, Rodney Wallace will be looking to take Jared Hamman down before Hamman gets a chance to put rights and lefts to his face.  While Hamman does have good power and far superior striking, it is extremely difficult to knock a guy out who is constantly shooting in.  Adding the fact that Wallace is very athletic and has an extremely good chin, Hamman’s best bet looks like a knee catching Wallace on the way in.

Wallace’s last fight with Brian Stann was very competitive, but “Sho Nuff the Master”’s gas tank betrayed him late.  Wallace was able to take down Stann with relative ease.  While Stann isn’t the most talented takedown defender, he is a formidable grappler who trains at one of the best wrestling gyms in the country.  Wallace should have little problems getting Hamman to the mat.

Unless Rodney Wallace comes into this fight with the worst gameplan ever or his stamina hasn’t improved, I believe he is a strong favorite here.  Hamman absolutely has the ability to put Wallace in trouble, but it’s hard betting against an explosive, iron chinned wrestler here.

My pick:  Rodney Wallace via TKO (ground and pound) in the 2nd

Betting play: MMAMoneyLine likes a bet on Rodney Wallace at -130 at Bodog.

MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

St. Pierre/SUB/2

Carwin/TKO/2

Fitch/UD

Miller/UD

Pellegrino/SD

Diaz/SUB/1

Brown/TKO/3

Wallace/TKO/2

Palhares/UD

Riddle/UD

 

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

Carwin – 2 u. at +130 on SportBet

Camoes – .5 u at +205 on SportsBook

Brown – .75 u at +140 on 5Dimes

Wallace – .5 u at -130 on Bodog

	MMABettingBlog	WatchKalibRun	MMAConvert	MiddleEasy	MMAAdNet	MMAValor	MMAMafia	Total
Georges St. Pierre vs. Dan Hardy	St. Pierre	St. Pierre	St. Pierre	Hardy	Hardy	St. Pierre	St. Pierre	St. Pierre 71%
Frank Mir vs. Shane Carwin	Mir	Mir	Mir	Carwin	Carwin	Carwin	Carwin	Carwin 57%
Jon Fitch vs. Ben Saunders	Fitch	Fitch	Fitch	Fitch	Saunders	Fitch	Fitch	Fitch 86%
Jim Miller vs. Mark Bocek	Miller	Miller	Miller	Miller	Miller	Miller	Miller	Miller 100%
Kurt Pellegrino vs. Fabricio Camoes	Pellegrino	Pellegrino	Pellegrino	Pellegrino	Pellegrino	Pellegrino	Pellegrino	Pellegrino 100%
Nate Diaz vs. Rory Markham	Diaz	Diaz	Diaz	Diaz	Diaz	Diaz	Markham	Diaz 86%
Ricardo Almeida vs. Matt Brown	Almeida	Brown	Brown	Almeida	Almeida	Brown	Almeida	Almeida 57%
Rodney Wallace vs. Jared Hamman	Hamman	Wallace	Wallace	Wallace	Wallace	Hamman	Wallace	Wallace 71%
Rousimar Palhares vs. Tomasz Drwal	Palhares	Palhares	Palhares	Palhares	Palhares	Palhares	Palhares	Palhares 100%
Matt Riddle vs. Greg Soto	Riddle	Riddle	Riddle	Soto	Riddle	Riddle	Riddle	Riddle 86%
Tiebreak	St. Pierre/TKO/3	St. Pierre/TKO/2	St. Pierre/TKO/4	Hardy/TKO/1	Hardy/KO/3	St. Pierre/TKO/2	St. Pierre/TKO/3	–
Total	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–

Just want to let everyone out there about a new feature on MMAMoneyLine. On the main page, I’ve hyper-linked the best available odds for each card directly to the sports book. You can see the best odds are now underlined as well as highlighted. Although this change is fairly small, it is something to make your browsing experience easier.

Before you ask, yes…these links are affiliate links (some people have a problem with not knowing that beforehand). Since MMAMoneyLine needs funding to operate, affiliate partnerships are major revenue sources.

Going forward, I am going to take steps to make your browsing experience as simple, thorough and helpful as possible. Hopefully when MMAMoneyLine’s 1 year anniversary rolls around this upcoming June, the site will be better than ever!

Due to the reaction on the ‘net of James Irvin’s dramatic weight cut, I decided to do a little side by side comparison. Here is a little collage comparing James Irvin over three weight classes: Heavyweight against Mike Kyle at UFC 51 in 2007, Light Heavyweight against Luiz Cane at UFC 79 and Middleweight against Alessio Sakara at UFC On Versus 1.

Pretty big difference here, especially between 205 and 185. Judging from all the Irvin interviews I’ve seen in the last few weeks, he seems to be taking everything in stride. I still think he’s going to smash Sakara, but he might need a CLIF bar between rounds.

(Pictures courtesy of UFC.com)

The first live UFC event broadcasted on Versus takes place Sunday, March 21st in Broomfield, Colorado.  UFC On Versus 1 features a Light Heavyweight main event pitting Brandon Vera against Jon Jones.  In the co-main event, Brazilian Jiu Jitsu ace Gabriel Gonzaga takes on Brazilian punch you in the face ace Junior dos Santos.

As always, I will only cover which fights have betting value.  UFC On Versus 1 gives us MMA bettors a range of interesting options.  If you have reviewed MMAMoneyLine’s Pros’ Picks for UFC On Versus 1, you already know that this card is a bit lopsided.  7 out of 11 fights are clean sweeps (100% for one fighter).  On the other hand, 3 out of the 4 fights that aren’t clean sweeps are practically coin flips.  Here is where MMAMoneyLine sees the value in UFC On Versus 1:  Vera VS. Jones

Junior dos Santos VS. Gabriel Gonzaga

The main arc in the build up to this fight is whether Gabriel Gonzaga can get Junior dos Santos to the ground, and what Junior can subsequently do there.  Both of these Brazilians have huge power on the feet, with dos Santos having the edge in technique.  Both guys have dropped fighters in an instant, using sound technique or otherwise.

In the Gonzaga/Carwin fight, Napao was able to land a hard cross to Carwin’s face that dropped him and broke his nose.  Shane Carwin used his wrestling in reverse and was able to catch Gonzaga with an equally as hard (if not harder) shot to end the fight.  Remember two things about this fight:  don’t discount a guy’s jaw because he got knocked out by Shane Carwin and don’t think Junior dos Santos is a Carwin-caliber wrestler.

If Gonzaga can clinch with dos Santos and use his size and strength to take him down or even wear him out, the fight tips in his favor.  We don’t know exactly what dos Santos is made of on the mat because we haven’t seen him there, but he is a BJJ brown belt.  Regardless, he’s not going to be as skilled as Gabriel Gonzaga even if he is far better than anyone thinks.

Don’t think this is an easy win for Gonzaga by any means.  Cigano is one of the deadliest strikers in the UFC’s Heavyweight division, and has destroyed two elite level strikers in his 4 UFC fights.  If Gonzaga thinks its a good idea to put his grappling on the backburner, his chin in trouble.

This fight is a lot closer than the odds suggest.  However, Gonzaga has a tendency to forget his BJJ and gas early in fights.  Because of these two points, plus the old adage of “every fight starts on its feet”, I like Junior dos Santos and his striking ability as the fight goes on.

My pick:  Junior dos Santos via TKO late in the 2nd

Betting play: Although I believe dos Santos takes this fight about 65% of the time, Gonzaga is the clear bet here.  Some sports books have Gonzaga under 30% to win, which is way off in my opinion.  Gonzaga is the bigger fighter and if this fight hits the ground, it drastically changes.  MMAMoneyLine recommends a conservative underdog play on Gabriel Gonzaga at +235 on Bookmaker.

James Irvin VS. Alessio Sakara

I’ll be honest, I’ve been looking forward to James Irvin’s return.  As unbiased as a reputable journalist or webmaster should be, I like James Irvin.  He is always involved in exciting fights (for good and bad reasons), owns up to his mistakes without making excuses and is a straight shootin’ type of guy.

With that being said, I think the UFC is doing him a pretty big favor here.  Alessio Sakara is the perfect opponent for James Irvin right now for 3 reasons:  he has no chin, he’s an out and out striker and this is Irvin’s first fight at Middleweight. Irvin has big time power that is still pretty fearsome even if he’s lost a bit with the weight cut.  He won’t have to worry about takedown defense either (c’mon, it’s Alessio Sakara).  But perhaps most importantly, the “Irvin’s gonna gas early because of the weight cut” or the “Irvin’s knees aren’t going to hold up” lines of reasoning don’t apply here.  The odds on 5Dimes of this fight going into the third round are +174…and that’s probably generous.

This fight is going to be quick and violent.  If Chris Leben could get Sakara to fold up, James Irvin (a converted Heavyweight) should have the power to do so as well.  Irvin also has that added incentive of showing his appreciation to Zuffa and co. for putting him back in a main card slot after an embarrassing loss and a positive drug test.  I feel good about this one.

My pick:  James Irvin via KO (superman punch) in the first

Betting play: Because of a few question marks, I’m going to temper my bet amount slightly.  However, MMAMoneyLine still likes a moderate bet on Irvin at -110 on 5Dimes.  The longer you wait to place this bet, the better.  A lot of money has been coming in on Sakara and there is a good chance that Irvin’s odds might improve.

 

Clay Guida VS. Shannon Gugerty

Clay Guida, a “Fight Of The Night” machine, finds himself on the UFC On Versus 1 undercard against Shannon Gugerty.  Guida has two strengths:  insane cardio and relentless wrestling.  He wins fights by attrition, doing more than the other guy to get a decision victory.  I’m not sure how well that strategy is going to work against Shannon Gugerty.

Gugerty has been pretty lukewarm in the UFC thus far, going 2-2 all by way of the submission.  He is a long and powerful striker with good wrestling and jiu jitsu.  Guida is actually a pretty good matchup for Gugerty.  Gugerty has a clear advantage standing up, competitive wrestling and no worries about his major weakness, submission defense, against a non-threat in Guida.  As far as the mental game goes, it must be a tough pill for Guida to swallow to be put back on the pre-lims against a thus far average fighter.

There’s a good chance that Guida does what he does best and get a workman’s like decision via raw, athletic talent.  However, Gugerty is being underrated here.  Don’t be surprised if we’re in for another close decision at the end of this exciting bout.

My pick:  Clay Guida via split decision

Betting play: Underdog special of the night is Gugerty.  At +335, he is absolutely a guy who could decision or submit Guida.  MMAMoneyLine recommends a small flier on Shannon Gugerty at +335 on SportBet.

MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

Jones/TKO/3

dos Santos/KO/2

Kongo/TKO/2

Irvin/KO/1

Schaub/SUB/1

Guida/Split Decision

Howard/Unanimous Decision

Pierce/Unanimous Decision

Marshall/Unanimous Decision

Ludwig/TKO/2

Brilz/Unanimous Decision

 

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

Gonzaga – .75 u. at +235

Irvin – 1.5 u at -110

Gugerty – .20 u at +335