MMABettingBlog SBNationMMA MMAConvert MMAMoneyLine MMAAdNet MMAValor MMAHive Total Jon Fitch vs. BJ Penn Penn Fitch Fitch Penn Penn Fitch Fitch Fitch 57% Michael Bisping vs. Jorge Rivera Bisping Bisping Bisping Rivera Bisping Bisping Bisping Bisping 86% George Sotiropoulos vs. Dennis Siver Sotiropoulos Sotiropoulos Sotiropoulos Sotiropoulos \Sotiropoulos Sotiropoulos Sotiropoulos Sotiropoulos 100% […]
Strikeforce/MI Global – Fedor VS. Silva takes place tonight in East Rutherford, New Jersey. This event kicks off Strikeforce’s 2011 Heavyweight Grand Prix (as indicated by the image above). The main event will feature the greatest fighter in mixed martial arts history, Fedor Emelianenko, against the surging Brazilian Antonio Silva. The co main event pits […]
Strikeforce/MI Global – Fedor VS. Silva takes place tonight in East Rutherford, New Jersey. This event kicks off Strikeforce’s 2011 Heavyweight Grand Prix (as indicated by the image above). The main event will feature the greatest fighter in mixed martial arts history, Fedor Emelianenko, against the surging Brazilian Antonio Silva. The co main event pits former UFC Heavyweight champion Andrei Arlovski against a very tough veteran in Sergei Kharitonov.
I’m not going to lie, I am in kind of a pinch time wise. My brother and I will be traveling to New Jersey to catch the show tonight, and we are leaving in about a half hour. My picks will be short and to the point. Check ‘em out, take a look at the Strikeforce/MI Global – Fedor VS. Silva Pros’ Picks and stay updated on the current lines. Enjoy the fights tonight!
Valentijn Overeem – Mike Hammersmith (-150 on Sportsbook)
The older but far less impressive Overeem takes to the Strikeforce cage, as Valentijn Overeem faces K-1 legend Ray Sefo. While newer fans have been wowed by Alistair Overeem’s climb to the top, older fans will remember when he was merely a young light heavyweight living in the shadow of his brother Valentijn. Much better known as a grappler than a kickboxer, Valentijn was most famous for two costly missteps in his MMA career; Being ankle locked by Igor Vovchancyn while hunting for an ankle lock himself, and having Gary Goodridge power out of an armbar and knock him out. Older and having experienced the same “diet” as Alistair, Valentijn comes into this fight as a monster heavyweight and will look to crush veteran kickboxer Ray Sefo.
With all kickboxers turned MMA fighters, this one comes down to the grappler, and this is where Sefo loses this fight. Overeem may not be world-class, but he’s capable of takedowns and submissions from top, which will be too much for the novice grappler in Sefo to handle. Getting (insert odds here) on Overeem is a steal, and his unimpressive record seems to be keeping this number a slow climber. None-the-less, hit this number heavy, as Overeem easily defeats Sefo inside the first round.
Arlovski’s achilles heel has always been his chin. It has shown itself suspect in his post UFC career. However, the former champ took several hard shots from Antonio Silva in his most recent loss; a fight which proved that Arlovski’s chin may be the source of a bit of exaggeration. Sergei Kharitonov is a very tough fighter who has been in the ring or cage with the who’s who of Japanese MMA. However, he has been fairly inactive over the past few years. Although Arlovski is far from a world beater at this stage in his career, his losses have come to some very good fighters in Emelianenko, Silva, and Rogers. I still think the Pitbull’s boxing is very good and his grappling and Sambo skills are underrated. Arlovski takes this in a decision
MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:
Emelianenko/TKO/2
Arlovski/UD
Del Rosario/UD
Overeem/SUB/1
Villante/KO/1
MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):
UFC 126 – Silva VS. Belfort takes place Saturday, February 5, 2011 at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in “The Meadows”, Nevada. The main event features one of the pound for pound best mixed martial artists in the world and UFC Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva defending his belt against highly touted Vitor Belfort. The Light […]
UFC 126 – Silva VS. Belfort takes place Saturday, February 5, 2011 at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in “The Meadows”, Nevada. The main event features one of the pound for pound best mixed martial artists in the world and UFC Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva defending his belt against highly touted Vitor Belfort. The Light Heavyweights will also be in action as former UFC champions Forrest Griffin and Rich Franklin fight for title contention and undefeated* rising superstars Jon Jones and Ryan Bader square off for a spot at the top of the 205 lb. heap. Another notable dynamic of UFC 126 is that two very impressive Japanese fighters in Michihiro Omigawa and Norifumi “Kid” Yamamoto return and debut respectively to the friendly confines of the UFC Octagon.
Although this weekend’s Super Bowl is the biggest game in town for sports bettors, UFC 126 looks to be an action heavy card. With a strong belief in Vitor Belfort and Jon Jones upsets, a close line between Rich Franklin and Forrest Griffin, and improving lines for the aforementioned Omigawa and Yamamoto, both casual and hard core MMA fans and bettors will be surely partaking in this weekend’s cage-related endeavors.
While no one can sell a fight like Chael Sonnen, the UFC is pushing Vitor Belfort as the most dangerous striker Anderson Silva has ever faced; generating huge anticipation for this fight. While Belfort is a fairly dangerous fighter in his own right, there are several factors that must be considered here.
One is the ring rust and weight of Vitor Belfort, who has fought just once in the last two years, and will be facing his toughest test to date at 185lbs; a weight he’s seldom competed at. Without even a tune-up fight in the cage, Belfort is going to be facing some serious endurance and confidence issues in this fight, which are two things that have proven to be difficult for him in the past. A major factor is the issue of relative competition for both men. While Belfort was a terror in his time, his wins are by and large against opponents who are irrelevant in the MMA world today, with the exception being Rich Franklin.
While Belfort’s power and hand speed are certainly impressive, his list of victims in today’s MMA world are not. Also consider that Belfort’s ground game is far below the bar in the UFC, and you have a situation where Belfort needs a decisive KO against someone known for their solid chin and bottom game BJJ. A decent first round will turn into a downward spiral for Belfort, as Silva batters him methodically, leading to a late TKO stoppage or lopsided decision win, setting up one half of GSP vs Silva.
It’s hard to imagine two guys who have taken more punishment in the cage than Forrest Griffin and Rich Franklin. With neither guy making it out of a fight with at least a nasty facial laceration, both men step into the cage young in real years, but old in fight years, with a lot of wear and tear between them. With Griffin having sat out all of 2010 with a shoulder injury, and Franklin famously getting his arm kicked in half in Chuck Liddell‘s swan song fight, it’s going to be interesting to see where each man’s confidence and conditioning lay.
While Franklin is undoubtedly the better technical striker of the two, Griffin comes into this bout with a high-level of conditioning and a great deal of size over Franklin, who will need to work his boxing and precision footwork to get one over on Griffin. A fight plan like that requires a young man’s reflexes and legs, and with the distinct lack of grace displayed against Chuck Liddell, I think it’s safe to say that Franklin’s best days are behind him. In an ultra violent bout, Griffin does just enough to take a split decision win over Franklin in another instant classic.
A sleeper fight of the night, the fast-paced stand-up of Paul Taylor will clash with Gabe Ruediger’s underrated BJJ game. As with all Taylor fights, his heart and pace are never in question, but his ability to keep off the mat and/or finish opponents is. Ruediger is hardly a world-beater at this level, but Taylor’s continued lack of take down defense will seal the deal for him here. Look for a surprisingly exciting fight, but one where Ruediger is able to hustle Taylor on the mat on his way to a decision win.
I dropped a tough one in my Strikeforce – Diaz VS. Cyborg BetDSI Ultimate Underdog bet. I felt good about Robbie Lawler in the first round, but he had nothing for Souza‘s relentless take downs and top control. Oh well…them’s the chances you take when betting on the ‘dogs. After much deliberation, my BetDSI Ultimate Underdog pick for UFC 126 is former UFC Light Heavyweight champion Forrest Griffin.
The Forrest Griffin/Rich Franklin fight is a coin flip…plain and simple. The former Middleweight champion and Light Heavyweight title holder have many similarities besides being two of the most recognizable and likable fighters under the Zuffa banner. Both fighters are well rounded, battle tested, and willing to engage. Griffin will have a size and strength advantage, which will serve him well in the clinch. Franklin has the edge in punching power, reflected in his fights against the likes of Chuck Liddell, Ken Shamrock, and Nate Quarry. Griffin and Franklin’s serviceable wrestling skills and underrated Brazilian Jiu Jitsu will likely make those aspects a wash. The conditioning of both fighters will also not be in question.
I see this fight being three rounds of kickboxing and clinch work. Both guys have immense respect for one another and will likely spend the first round engaging in the feeling out process. The only plausible way this fight sees a finish is a Franklin knockout, which is definitely possible. However, Forrest Griffin utilizing the clinch against his smaller foe could just as easily lead to a unanimous decision win for the former Ultimate Fighter champion.
This writeup is pretty much a long winded way of saying “this fight is 50/50″. The current odds are around -170 Franklin/+140 Griffin. I’m taking the numbers here and going with Griffin in a very close fight.
Many knowledgeable MMA people think Saturday’s fight between Paul Taylor and Gabe Ruediger will be an entertaining mix up between two skilled Lightweights. While I am not disagreeing, I think it will be less competitive fight than most believe. Let’s look a little deeper at Ruediger’s last 6 victories before his loss to Joe Lauzon. In this span, Ruediger won 5 fights via submission and 1 fight via technical knockout. While a 6 fight win streak is impressive, you have to look at the level of competition. The losing fighters in Ruediger’s 6 fight win streak have hardly faced top level competition, and have a collective 15 submission losses out of 24 total defeats. Take out Wander Braga and Joe Lauzon’s records, the total record of Gabe’s recent competition is an unimpressive 28-23 (not to mention one fighter has a 0-1 record).
In Taylor, you have a fighter who has 8 fights inside the Octagon against top level competition like Sam Stout, John Hathaway, and Chris Lytle. Although Taylor’s 3-5 UFC record is far from impressive, he has only been stopped by Marcus Davis in a submission loss. In it worth noting that Taylor rocked Davis before getting caught in an uber-impressive armbar.
All statistics aside, Ruediger will look to use his submission acumen against a foe who is very hard to tap. If Gabe doesn’t have his submission game to go to, he is ineffective. Taylor has proven effective against wrestlers like Peter Sobotta, so Ruediger’s take downs shouldn’t give him too much of a problem. Taylor will have a large edge in the striking portion of this fight, which will be the decider. I expect Taylor to outpoint and outwork Ruediger while avoid his take down attempts en route to a decisive unanimous decision. Taylor at -200 is a good line to me.
MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:
Silva/TKO/3
Griffin/SD
Jones/TKO/2
Torres/SUB/2
Ellenberger/UD
Cerrone/SUB/3
Mendes/UD
Taylor/UD
Johnson/UD
Kingsbury/SD
Pierce/UD
MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):
Strikeforce – Diaz VS. Cyborg takes place Saturday, January 29th on Strikeforce’s home turf of Southern California. This event boasts two title fights, as Strikeforce Welterweight champion Nick Diaz and Middleweight king Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza defend their straps against Evangelista “Cyborg” Santos and Robbie Lawler respectively. Also appearing on the card are former NFL great […]
Strikeforce – Diaz VS. Cyborg takes place Saturday, January 29th on Strikeforce’s home turf of Southern California. This event boasts two title fights, as Strikeforce Welterweight champion Nick Diaz and Middleweight king Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza defend their straps against Evangelista “Cyborg” Santos and Robbie Lawler respectively. Also appearing on the card are former NFL great Herschel Walker, the world renown grappler Roger Gracie, and journeyman Trevor Prangley.
Odds are up for eight fights total: the four main card fights and four under card scraps. Although I do have some background on the eight fighters on the under card who have betting lines, I am staying away from them. Some hardcore MMA fans may see a betting edge in one of these fights, but I cannot justify gambling on a Strikeforce under card fight. If you have an edge and want to exploit it, then by all means go for it!
As for the main card, each fight represents a seemingly overwhelming styles clash. Diaz versus Santos is technical points boxing and BJJ versus aggressive Muay Thai; Jacare Souza versus Robbie Lawler represents world class BJJ and improving striking versus knockout power and a solid chin; Roger Gracie versus Trevor Prangley pits another world class BJJ player and underrated striker against a jack of all trades type of fighter. I’m not even going to get into the Walker/Carson fight, as this pits a guy who was set up to win against a guy who was called up to lose.
In the end, this card is very unpredictable. The four main card fights could go exactly as odds makers planned: Diaz via unanimous decision, Souza via submission, Gracie via submission, and Walker via who cares. However, there is also a possibility that Cyborg catches Diaz, Lawler beats Jacare to the punch, and Prangley exposes Gracie as a novice mixed martial artist. This is a high risk/high reward card, and any MMA bettor should think thoroughly before coming to any conclusion (especially a conclusion that leads to a wager).
As always, here are myself and Mike Hammersmith of MMAHive‘s Best Bets for tomorrow’s Strikeforce – Diaz VS. Cyborg card. Make sure to check out MMAMoneyLine’s Pros’ Picks for tomorrow’s event as well. Lastly, I will be introducing a new dynamic to MMAMoneyLine’s Best Bets, which you will see further down. Best of luck on your wagers and enjoy the fights!
Nick Diaz: Strikeforce Welterweight Champion Nick Diaz vs. Evangelista “Cyborg” Santos: Long-time Welterweight terror Nick Diaz has gained and defended his title with bloody victories, and will look to punish one of Brazil’s veteran brawlers. While some were stunned by Cyborg’s quick dispatch of Marius Zaromskis, those in the know understood that Santos is not a fighter to ever count out in a fight, and the same remains true here.
This fight has potential to be one of the most brutal outings of all time, as both men have tremendous chins, thin skin, and are willing to trade shots all day long. It’s the cardio department that separate both men though, as Diaz is a world-class athlete, and able to go hard for 5 rounds, while Cyborg has been known to gas in pitched battles. An even scrap becomes a one-sided beating, as Diaz puts combinations together against a flagging Santos, sealing the deal in the 3rd round.
To be totally honest, I was surprised to see Gracie as a favorite when this line came out. Gracie, while living up to his name in his grappling credentials, is still only 3-0 in MMA competition against questionable competition. On the other side of the coin, Trevor Prangley is a tried and tested mixed martial artists who has fought competition like Tim Kennedy, Jorge Santiago, Chael Sonnen, Jeremy Horn, Travis Lutter, and Renato Sobral throughout his career. The fights against Horn, Lutter, and Sobral stand out, because they give you a measuring stick as to how Prangley’s grappling holds up against elite BJJ practitioners. In those three fights (albeit all over five years ago), Prangley is 1-2 with each fight going to a unanimous decision. It should also be noted that, even in their prime, each of these three fighters do not have the BJJ background of Gracie.
The more I researched the fight, the more obvious it became that Gracie should be the favorite. He has several things working for him in this fight. First off, Prangley’s game plan works right into his hands. As Dave Mandel of Sherdog puts it: Prangley’s best shot is to get this fight to the ground and pound out a technical knock out win. However, going to the ground, whether intentionally or unintentionally, against a guy with the credentials of Roger Gracie is surely tempting fate. Would you want to be anywhere near a guy who’s submitted Shinya Aoki, Fabricio Werdum, and the aforementioned Ronaldo Souza?
So, Gracie can submit Prangley. What about Prangley’s wrestling and ground and pound? You know the saying about how a punch in the face can equalize BJJ. Well, news that Gracie has spent time training with Georges St. Pierre, and getting the better of him, gives his overall grappling (not just BJJ) some credibility. Prangley should be fighting at Middleweight, and I would be willing to bet that there isn’t much of a strength discrepancy between St. Pierre and the South African. In addition, Gracie was able to handle the wrestling abilities of Kevin Randleman and Ron Waterman without problem.
Finally, striking comes into question. For a Gracie with three wins by submission in three fights, where does his striking stand? Well…Gracie will enjoy a reach advantage over Prangley first off. Secondly, Roger has also been training with some very good boxing instructors, including Joe Calzaghe. When striking acumen is contested, I would have to say Gracie gets the edge as well.
When the research dust settles, Gracie holds a marked advantage in BJJ, an edge in striking, and is improving his wrestling with guys like Georges St. Pierre. On top of this, Prangley is almost ten years older than the twenty nine year old Brazilian. All evidence points to Gracie beating a game Prangley. Prangley’s only feasible ways to victory being testing Gracie’s chin in the striking game or controlling an elite Brazilian Jiu Jitsu player for three rounds. I cannot see either happening, and I think Gracie at -155 is a steal.
Starting with this card, a new feature will be displayed on MMAMoneyLine. The BetDSI Ultimate Underdog bet will be instituted in MMAMoneyLine’s Best Bets section for the foreseeable future (don’t worry, a flashy graphic is in the works!). BetDSI was kind enough to give MMAMoneyLine $1,000 to play around with, and I am using these funds with a “go big or go broke” mentality. I will use this money to bet on the most valuable underdog of each event. This doesn’t mean I will simply bet on the fighter with the longest odds, but instead place a wager on the loftiest ‘dog who has a legitimate chance to win and, therefore, a large line discrepancy. I will track the success/failure of my BetDSI Ultimate Underdog bet throughout 2011 and run down the statistics at the end of the year. I welcome everyone to visit BetDSI, a book that is rated A+ by SportsBookReview and very MMA friendly. My inaugural BetDSI Ultimate Underdog bet will be “Ruthless” Robbie Lawler.
So why Robbie Lawler. What makes me think that Lawler will leave San Jose as the new Strikeforce Middleweight champion? Here is my rationale. While Jacare cut his teeth stateside with wins over Joey Villasenor, Tim Kennedy, and Matt Lindland, I believe he has yet to fight a guy with the knockout power of Lawler. Lawler’s game poses a pretty hefty threat to Jacare: he has proven knockout power, is very tough, and has underrated take down defense.
There has been a lot of rumbling on the MMA blogs and news sites about Jacare’s plan to take Lawler down and submit him. Robbie Lawler will be a tough test for Souza’s wrestling ability, and has the power to really make him pay for trying. In the Lawler/Sobral fight, Lawler was landing the more significant shots and lost a close decision partially because of slipping in the first round. Sobral also had very little luck getting Lawler to the mat.
If I had to put a percentage on this fight, I would say Souza wins this fight a little over 50% of the time…perhaps 11 or 12 times out of 20. Conservatively, if he wins this fight 12 times out of 20, that gives Souza a 60% chance of winning (a -150 line). Conversely, if Lawler wins this fight 40% of the time his line translates to +150. Right now, Lawler’s best odds are in the +200 range, a pretty sizable discrepancy. I believe Lawler is a live dog because of his knockout power, take down defense, and toughness, and I am willing to play the numbers on this one.
MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:
Diaz/UD
Lawler/TKO/3
Walker/TKO/1
Gracie/SUB/2
MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):
