Strikeforce – Diaz VS. Cyborg takes place Saturday, January 29th on Strikeforce’s home turf of Southern California. This event boasts two title fights, as Strikeforce Welterweight champion Nick Diaz and Middleweight king Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza defend their straps against Evangelista “Cyborg” Santos and Robbie Lawler respectively. Also appearing on the card are former NFL great Herschel Walker, the world renown grappler Roger Gracie, and journeyman Trevor Prangley.
Odds are up for eight fights total: the four main card fights and four under card scraps. Although I do have some background on the eight fighters on the under card who have betting lines, I am staying away from them. Some hardcore MMA fans may see a betting edge in one of these fights, but I cannot justify gambling on a Strikeforce under card fight. If you have an edge and want to exploit it, then by all means go for it!
As for the main card, each fight represents a seemingly overwhelming styles clash. Diaz versus Santos is technical points boxing and BJJ versus aggressive Muay Thai; Jacare Souza versus Robbie Lawler represents world class BJJ and improving striking versus knockout power and a solid chin; Roger Gracie versus Trevor Prangley pits another world class BJJ player and underrated striker against a jack of all trades type of fighter. I’m not even going to get into the Walker/Carson fight, as this pits a guy who was set up to win against a guy who was called up to lose.
In the end, this card is very unpredictable. The four main card fights could go exactly as odds makers planned: Diaz via unanimous decision, Souza via submission, Gracie via submission, and Walker via who cares. However, there is also a possibility that Cyborg catches Diaz, Lawler beats Jacare to the punch, and Prangley exposes Gracie as a novice mixed martial artist. This is a high risk/high reward card, and any MMA bettor should think thoroughly before coming to any conclusion (especially a conclusion that leads to a wager).
As always, here are myself and Mike Hammersmith of MMAHive‘s Best Bets for tomorrow’s Strikeforce – Diaz VS. Cyborg card. Make sure to check out MMAMoneyLine’s Pros’ Picks for tomorrow’s event as well. Lastly, I will be introducing a new dynamic to MMAMoneyLine’s Best Bets, which you will see further down. Best of luck on your wagers and enjoy the fights!
Nick Diaz – Mike Hammersmith (-155 on BetDSI/Bookmaker/BetCRIS)
This fight has potential to be one of the most brutal outings of all time, as both men have tremendous chins, thin skin, and are willing to trade shots all day long. It’s the cardio department that separate both men though, as Diaz is a world-class athlete, and able to go hard for 5 rounds, while Cyborg has been known to gas in pitched battles. An even scrap becomes a one-sided beating, as Diaz puts combinations together against a flagging Santos, sealing the deal in the 3rd round.
Roger Gracie – MMAMoneyLine (-155 on BetDSI/Bookmaker/BetCRIS)
To be totally honest, I was surprised to see Gracie as a favorite when this line came out. Gracie, while living up to his name in his grappling credentials, is still only 3-0 in MMA competition against questionable competition. On the other side of the coin, Trevor Prangley is a tried and tested mixed martial artists who has fought competition like Tim Kennedy, Jorge Santiago, Chael Sonnen, Jeremy Horn, Travis Lutter, and Renato Sobral throughout his career. The fights against Horn, Lutter, and Sobral stand out, because they give you a measuring stick as to how Prangley’s grappling holds up against elite BJJ practitioners. In those three fights (albeit all over five years ago), Prangley is 1-2 with each fight going to a unanimous decision. It should also be noted that, even in their prime, each of these three fighters do not have the BJJ background of Gracie.
The more I researched the fight, the more obvious it became that Gracie should be the favorite. He has several things working for him in this fight. First off, Prangley’s game plan works right into his hands. As Dave Mandel of Sherdog puts it: Prangley’s best shot is to get this fight to the ground and pound out a technical knock out win. However, going to the ground, whether intentionally or unintentionally, against a guy with the credentials of Roger Gracie is surely tempting fate. Would you want to be anywhere near a guy who’s submitted Shinya Aoki, Fabricio Werdum, and the aforementioned Ronaldo Souza?
So, Gracie can submit Prangley. What about Prangley’s wrestling and ground and pound? You know the saying about how a punch in the face can equalize BJJ. Well, news that Gracie has spent time training with Georges St. Pierre, and getting the better of him, gives his overall grappling (not just BJJ) some credibility. Prangley should be fighting at Middleweight, and I would be willing to bet that there isn’t much of a strength discrepancy between St. Pierre and the South African. In addition, Gracie was able to handle the wrestling abilities of Kevin Randleman and Ron Waterman without problem.
Finally, striking comes into question. For a Gracie with three wins by submission in three fights, where does his striking stand? Well…Gracie will enjoy a reach advantage over Prangley first off. Secondly, Roger has also been training with some very good boxing instructors, including Joe Calzaghe. When striking acumen is contested, I would have to say Gracie gets the edge as well.
When the research dust settles, Gracie holds a marked advantage in BJJ, an edge in striking, and is improving his wrestling with guys like Georges St. Pierre. On top of this, Prangley is almost ten years older than the twenty nine year old Brazilian. All evidence points to Gracie beating a game Prangley. Prangley’s only feasible ways to victory being testing Gracie’s chin in the striking game or controlling an elite Brazilian Jiu Jitsu player for three rounds. I cannot see either happening, and I think Gracie at -155 is a steal.
Robbie Lawler – MMAMoneyLine (+200 on BetDSI)
Starting with this card, a new feature will be displayed on MMAMoneyLine. The BetDSI Ultimate Underdog bet will be instituted in MMAMoneyLine’s Best Bets section for the foreseeable future (don’t worry, a flashy graphic is in the works!). BetDSI was kind enough to give MMAMoneyLine $1,000 to play around with, and I am using these funds with a “go big or go broke” mentality. I will use this money to bet on the most valuable underdog of each event. This doesn’t mean I will simply bet on the fighter with the longest odds, but instead place a wager on the loftiest ‘dog who has a legitimate chance to win and, therefore, a large line discrepancy. I will track the success/failure of my BetDSI Ultimate Underdog bet throughout 2011 and run down the statistics at the end of the year. I welcome everyone to visit BetDSI, a book that is rated A+ by SportsBookReview and very MMA friendly. My inaugural BetDSI Ultimate Underdog bet will be “Ruthless” Robbie Lawler.
So why Robbie Lawler. What makes me think that Lawler will leave San Jose as the new Strikeforce Middleweight champion? Here is my rationale. While Jacare cut his teeth stateside with wins over Joey Villasenor, Tim Kennedy, and Matt Lindland, I believe he has yet to fight a guy with the knockout power of Lawler. Lawler’s game poses a pretty hefty threat to Jacare: he has proven knockout power, is very tough, and has underrated take down defense.
There has been a lot of rumbling on the MMA blogs and news sites about Jacare’s plan to take Lawler down and submit him. Robbie Lawler will be a tough test for Souza’s wrestling ability, and has the power to really make him pay for trying. In the Lawler/Sobral fight, Lawler was landing the more significant shots and lost a close decision partially because of slipping in the first round. Sobral also had very little luck getting Lawler to the mat.
If I had to put a percentage on this fight, I would say Souza wins this fight a little over 50% of the time…perhaps 11 or 12 times out of 20. Conservatively, if he wins this fight 12 times out of 20, that gives Souza a 60% chance of winning (a -150 line). Conversely, if Lawler wins this fight 40% of the time his line translates to +150. Right now, Lawler’s best odds are in the +200 range, a pretty sizable discrepancy. I believe Lawler is a live dog because of his knockout power, take down defense, and toughness, and I am willing to play the numbers on this one.
MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:
Diaz/UD
Lawler/TKO/3
Walker/TKO/1
Gracie/SUB/2
MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):
Gracie – 2 u. at -155 on BetDSI
Lawler – 2 u. at +200 on BetDSI