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UFC 124 – St. Pierre VS. Koscheck II takes place this Saturday, December 11th, in Montreal.  The main event will be a rematch between UFC Welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre and number one contender Josh Koscheck.  Rounding out the main card is a Muay Thai lover’s dream between Thiago Alves and John Howard and a battle between two TUF winners in Joe Stevenson and Mac Danzig.

As standard procedure, myself and Mike Hammersmith of MMAHive will be giving our best bets for tomorrow’s UFC 124 card.  There aren’t a ton of betting opportunities on this card, but there are definitely some under card diamonds in the rough.  Before you throw your money down on this weekend’s UFC 124, make sure to keep current on the UFC 124 odds.  Also, check out MMAMoneyLine’s UFC 124 Pros’ Picks and MMAMoneyLine’s MMA Fighter Profiles (by clicking a fighter’s name on the main page).

Thiago Alves – Mike Hammersmith -265 on Sportsbook)

Another great example of how the battlefield principle has a profound effect on a fight, the dangerous Thiago Alves will take on John Howard in a spirited striking bout. Alves brings some of the most dangerous stand-up in the division to this bout, but his title hopes have been dashed time and again by the superior technical wrestlers at welterweight. While Howard has a good deal of talent everywhere this fight goes, he doesn’t have the kind of wrestling that will put Alves on his back here, making this a stand-up bout that he’s woefully unprepared for. You can count on the fast hands and hard chin of Alves to be more than enough to batter Howard here, leading to a TKO win or easy decision for the top-tier Welterweight.

Joe Stevenson – Mike Hammersmith (-265 on SportBet)

In a battle of TUF winners, TUF 2′s Joe “Daddy” Stevenson will make his return to the cage, taking on TUF 6′s Mac Danzig in what will likely be Danzig’s swan song. While neither fighter has found the ability to consistently defeat top competition at Lightweight, Danzig has posted a 3-4 record in the promotion, with all losses coming by way of a man-handling on the mat. Stevenson’s wrestling, pace, and submission defense make this a terrible fight for Danzig, as he’ll find himself fighting off his back for the entire match-up against someone well-equipped to defeat him in that realm. In a grappling and boxing clinic, Stevenson takes the fight to Danzig and walks away with a decision win before moving back up the ladder.

Sean McCorkle – MMAMoneyLine (+130 on BetUS)

Sean McCorkle will be making his second UFC appearance against tough as nails Stefan Struve.  McCorkle is coming off an impressive submission victory against veteran Mark Hunt (impressive because he was able to beat a vet like Hunt in his UFC debut, not because he was able to submit the very submittable Hunt).  McCorkle will have his hands full against the savvy Struve.

Stefan Struve’s advantages in most of his fights are his height, toughness, and submission acumen.  Against McCorkle, his height will be negated. McCorkle is 6’7″ compared to Struve’s 6’11″.  While there is still a four inch difference, McCorkle will have an obvious strength advantage over the gangly Netherlands native.  This strength advantage for McCorkle will manifest itself both on the feet and on the floor.  Struve’s toughness will be tested often by McCorkle, and although the Skyscraper is very hard to KO, he has been rocked several times by lesser competition (see Christian Morecraft, Paul Buentello, Denis Stojnic).

While Struve has the ability to get a sneaky sub on the undefeated McCorkle, he is going to take a beating just to get the chance.  McCorkle will be able to beat Struve to the punch, handle Struve’s submission attempts, and muscle Struve around the octagon.  Sean McCorkle by TKO in the second looks good, especially when Big Sexy is at +140.

Jesse Bongfeldt – MMAMoneyLine (+140 on Sportsbook)

Jesse “Water” Bongfeldt (see what he did there?) will be making his UFC debut against Rafael Natal.  You may know Natal as the guy who beat Travis Lutter on the indie circuit and lost against Rich Attonito in his UFC debut.  Sapo also holds a victory over UFC and WEC vet Danillo Villefort.

Bongfeldt holds victories over fellow UFC 124 participants  TJ Grant and Sean Pierson.  Beating Grant with a submission is an impressive feat, and speaks volumes about Bong’s grappling skills.  Both Natal and Bongfeldt have the ability to win by knockout or submission, are similar in height and weight, and have fought top level competition.

In the end, I’m leaning towards Bongfeldt because of his impressive outing against Grant in 2008.  He is tough and has hung in there through some real beatings and pulled out the victory.  Compared to Natal’s hesitant, almost lackadaisical fight style, I believe Bongfeldt might be more motivated.  The fact that he is an underdog at +130 makes a bet on him even more appealing.  Bongfeldt by unanimous decision.

Sean Pierson – MMAMoneyLine (+250 on Sportsbook)

Like many other MMA analysts and bloggers, I too believe Matt Riddle versus Sean Pierson is a coin flip.  The odds say different, as Pierson is currently a +250 underdog on Sportsbook.  Both guys have the same strengths:  wrestling, aggressiveness, strength.  To be honest with you, I think Matt Riddle probably wins this fight slightly more than he loses, even though many knowledgeable people are picking Pierson for the upset.  However, as a smart bettor you have to play the numbers here.  Getting Sean Pierson at 29% is a risk worth taking.

John Makdessi – MMAMoneyLine (+120 on Sportsbook)

Both John Makdessi and his opponent Pat Audinwood have found success against mid-level opposition.  Each guy has been in the cage with one top level caliber fighter in Bendy Casimir and Thiago Tavares respectively.  This fight will be a styles clash, as Makdessi has very dangerous kickboxing and Audinwood has sound grappling.

I wasn’t too impressed with Audinwood in his first UFC fight against Tavares…however I will give him the benefit of the doubt in that Tavares is a talented veteran.  On the other hand, I’ve been hearing a lot about Makdessi.  He trains with Georges St. Pierre’s striking coach, Firas Zahabi, and has numerous kickboxing medals and accolades.

What makes this fight most difficult for Audinwood is the lethal striking/take down defense combo that Makdessi possesses.  Audinwood is going to take some shots in order to get a chance to use his bread and butter submission game.  I’m going with Makdessi here…better striking, better training, better power.

MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

St. Pierre/TKO/3

McCorkle/TKO/2

Oliveira/SUB/2

Stevenson/UD

Alves/KO/2

Bocek/SD

Almeida/SUB/2

Miller/UD

Bongfeldt/UD

Pierson/UD

Makdessi/TKO/3

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

McCorkle -.5 u. at +130 on BetUS

Bongfeldt -.5 u. at +145 on BetUS

Pierson -.5 u. at +250 on Sportsbook

Makdessi – .5 u. at +120 on Sportsbook

Anyone else think Kendall Grove looks like George Sotiropoulos in that picture?  Anyway, tonight’s Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale takes place in Las Vegas (translated from Spanish to English as “The Meadows”), Nevada.  The main event, if it could be called that, features former UFC savior Stephan Bonnar squaring off against James Irvin eye crusher Igor Pokrajac.  Jonathan Brookins and Michael Johnson will also be duking it out for a six figure UFC contract.  Rounding out the card will be an interesting scrap between BJJ ace Demian Maia and former TUF champ Kendall Grove.

As with any other TUF finale card, there is money to be made for the smart yet risky sports bettor.  Because there are so many fighter that so many people know so little about, fight lines tend to be a little off.  Myself and Mike Hammersmith of MMAHive will be discussing our best bets for tonight’s Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale. Before making any wagers on tomorrow’s card, make sure to stay up to date on The Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale odds and check out who other well-informed MMA bloggers are picking over at MMAMoneyLine’s The Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale Pros’ Picks.  And here we go…

Fredson Paixao – Mike Hammersmith -165 on Bodog/Sportsbook)

Coming off of a tough short-notice loss to Chinese MMA pioneer Tie Quan Zhang, the UFC has decided to throw Pablo Garza to the lions, giving him to BJJ ace Fredson Paixao. While Garza showed some skills in his first WEC bout, he has loose transitions and submission skills, showing potential, but a great deal of inexperience with his mat work. The worst possible match for someone like that is to face a strong fundamental grappler, who will shut down their offense and easily work their way into superior positions to win. Paixao is just such a fighter, as a highly-regarded BJJ black belt with wrestling skills to boot, making a near impossible fight for Garza. Short of a fast KO on someone known for their conservative approach, Paixao should easily take down and tap out Garza in the first round.  Bookies don’t seem to agree with me, starting Paixao’s line ridiculously low and making for a huge payday with a heavy bet at -165.

Rick Story – Mike Hammersmith (+175 on Bodog/Sportsbook)

Aaron Wilkinson – Mike Hammersmith (+105 on Sportsbook)

Kendall Grove – MMAMoneyLine (+300 on Bodog)

When this line came out, it was one of those “yeowwww, that line is off” moments for me.  Kendall Grove at +300 against Demian Maia?  Thank you, sir.  Listen, I know Maia is a BJJ bad ass.  You don’t submit that many UFC caliber guys by luck.  However, we have to look at the numbers:  Maia is giving up a half of a foot in height and God knows how many inches reach and Kendall Grove has only been submitted once in his career (five years ago).

Can Demian Maia submit Kendall Grove?  Absolutely…he has the ability to submit anyone in the division.  However, Maia is going to have to get Grove to the ground to submit him.  If Kendall had any game plan whatsoever, he would use his striking to keep Maia at bay.  Grove is a very skilled striker, which compliments his height very well.  When he does lose, he generally loses to heavy handed strikers (Mark Munoz, Jorge Rivera, Patrick Cote, etc).  His striking coupled with a decent sprawl could be all it takes to get a decision.

At the end of the day, Maia is a pure jits guy no matter what anyone says.  The guys striking blows…sorry Dan Miller.  Maia has to contend with Grove’s stand up, not to mention his average to good submission defense.  I can see Grove hitting Maia hard, Maia going for the panic double leg, and Grove finishing him off with hammer fists.  I think Kendall Grove is a good bet here at far worse odds; at +300 he’s a gift.

Leonard Garcia – MMAMoneyLine (-170 on Bookmaker/SportBet)

Nam Phan is overrated.  I should just end this analysis at that sentence, but I will elaborate so I don’t get called out for being lazy.  Every name that Phan ever fought he lost to (Omigawa, Evangelista, Cavalcante, Thomson, McCullough).  I wasn’t impressed by Phan’s performance on the reality show, and I think he has a hell of a test in front of him.

Leonard Garcia is borderline impossible to knock out, so we can throw that possibility out.  Garcia also has an underrated ground game, well deserved by his penchant to stand and bang with everyone he fights.  If Nam Phan does take Garcia down, a submission victory will be hard to come by.  I just cannot see a way for Nam Phan to get a W here outside of outpointing Garcia for three rounds.  To do that, he needs to have the chin and balls to stand in front of Leonard Garcia.  Rough deal…I’ll take my chances with “The Haymaker” (Leonard, if you’re reading this…that is your new nickname).

MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

Bonnar/SD

Brookins/SUB/1

Grove/TKO/2

Hendricks/UD

Garcia/KO/2

Attonito/UD

Paixao/SUB/2

Campuzano/SD

Wilkinson/UD

Toner/TKO/2

Watson/UD

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

Grove – .5 u. at +300 on Bodog

Garcia – 1.5 u. at -175 on Bodog

Wilkinson – 1 u. at +105 on Sportsbook

Get the DVR ready…we have some serious MMA on this weekend!  Strikeforce – Henderson VS. Babalu is going down tonight in St. Louis, Missouri.  The main event, as you may have guessed from the name, pits former PRIDE double champion Dan Henderson against former UFC Light Heavyweight number one contender Renato “Babalu” Sobral.  Also on the card is a guaranteed slugfest between Paul Daley and Scott Smith and a Middleweight scrap between Olympic silver medalist Matt Lindland and hard hitting Robbie Lawler. Herschel Walker was supposed to be on this card, but the Vikings called him up in case Adrian Peterson couldn’t go this Sunday.

Myself and Mike Hammersmith of MMAHive will be discussing our best bets for Saturday’s Strikeforce event.  Before making any wagers on tomorrow’s card, make sure to stay up to date on the Strikeforce – Henderson VS. Babalu odds and check out who other well-informed MMA bloggers are picking over at MMAMoneyLine’s Strikeforce – Henderson VS. Babalu Pros’ Picks.  So like Big John McCarthy (and any other ref not creative enough to come up with his own like) would say, LETS GET IT ON!

Renato Sobral – Mike Hammersmith +210 on SportBet)

Benji Radach – MMAMoneyLine (+120 on Bodog)

I was flip flopping on this fight up until the beginning of this week.  Here is a stream of consciousness look at what I’m thinking about this fight.  Concerning Ovince St. Preux, he is coming off an impressive win against Antwain Britt, his striking looked pretty good, his back defense looked more than serviceable, and he is bigger than most of Radach’s past opponents (Radach usually fights at Middleweight, St. Preux is a Light Heavyweight).  Concerning Benji Radach, he is a consumate veteran of the sport facing very tough guys like Scott Smith, Gerald Harris, Brian Foster, Chris Leben, and Sean Sherk.  Radach has 26 pro fights with 17 knockouts; the guy hits like a train but has a questionable chin with 5 knockout losses.

When it comes down to it, I’m playing the line here.  St. Preux, a relative newcomer to MMA, is a favorite over a wily veteran like Radach because he is coming off of a win and Radach is coming off of a loss.  Although Ovince St. Preux did beat Antwain Britt, he lost a round and the last round of that fight was pretty much two gassed guys trying to gut it out.  Although Benji Radach lost his last fight to Scott Smith, he was arguably winning two rounds before getting knocked out in the third by the King of Comebacks.  I believe this line to be overinflated in St. Preux favor because of the two fighters respective previous fights.  I also believe this fight will take place on the feet, and will take Radach’s knockout power and stamina over St. Preux’s inexperience and gas tank issues.

MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

Henderson/TKO/2

Daley/KO/2

Silva/TKO/1

Lawler/KO/2

Radach/TKO/3

Yeah…that’s 5 knockouts.  You heard it here first.

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

Radach – .5 u. at +120 on Bodog

This Saturday’s UFC 123 – Machida VS. Rampage takes place in Auburn Hills, Michigan.  The main event, which may very well be a #1 contender match up, will feature two former UFC Light Heavyweight champions in Quinton “Rampage” Jackson and Lyoto Machida.  Filling out the rest of this Saturday’s main card is a rubber match between two MMA legends in Matt Hughes and BJ Penn and a very important Lightweight scrap between George Sotiropoulos and Joe Lauzon.

There are some solid betting opportunities for UFC 123, as I see some fighters being clearly overvalued.  Myself and Mike Hammersmith of MMAHive will be discussing our best bets for tomorrow’s UFC 123.  Before making any wagers on tomorrow’s card, make sure to stay up to date on the UFC 123 odds and check out who other well-informed MMA bloggers are picking over at MMAMoneyLine’s UFC 123 Pros’ Picks.

Phil Davis – Mike Hammersmith -525 on SportBet)

One of the best prospects to step into the cage at 205lbs, “Mr Wonderful” Phil Davis has gone undefeated in his young career, and used his early fights wisely to gain precious ring time. Having added an incredible striking arsenal in a very short time, Davis has become a complete fighter, and will be a real handful for anyone in this division. His opponent is veteran fighter Tim Boetsch, who made his return to the UFC following a successful stint in the regional circuit, and was victorious in his last bout against Todd Brown.

While everyone loves Boetsch’s bout with David Heath for his “Barbarian Toss”, the fact of the matter is, he’s a simple fighter with a couple of unique moves in his arsenal. Once you get past the uppercut leads and front kicks, Boetsch isn’t any more dangerous than the slew of strikers at 205lbs, and makes for another step for Davis on his way to the top of the division. Look for Davis to gain a little more ring time by working his stand-up and fast take downs on an overwhelmed Boetsch, walking away with another victory. Even with a line like -525, this is a fight Davis essentially can’t lose, and makes for one of the best conservative bets in a long time.

Gerald Harris – Mike Hammersmith (-255 on SportBet)

Playing the roll of welcoming committee for the fourth fight in a row, Gerald Harris will face UFC new-comer Maiquel Falcao on the main card. Harris has done well for himself since talking his way into the UFC, with three stoppage wins in three fights, and will face someone he’s well suited against here.

Maiquel Falcao comes to us from the Chute Boxe camp, and with an impressive record of 25-3 with all but one win by stoppage, seems like a hot prospect on paper. Looking at footage though, we see that Falcao is firmly in the Chute Boxe mold, with a hard-style striking game and relentless pace that won’t do him many favors against a slick wrestler like Harris. Armed with a puncher’s chance, Falcao will play the odds in his UFC debut.

If we’ve learned anything about Chute Boxe fighters, it’s that they don’t hold up outside of the lower-level Brazilian MMA world. While Falcao could land a KO shot early, Harris is far too patient to rush into anything, and his takedowns should be all he needs to win this fight. Look for a fast shot and fast finish by Harris to finish this one in the first, or early second round.  Wait til after the weigh-ins here as money has been coming in for Falcao steadily,and should lead to great odds for Harris.

Aaron Simpson – Mike Hammersmith (+145 on BetOnline)

In another tremendously close fight, Aaron “A-Train” Simpson will take on fellow wrestler Mark Munoz in huge fight for both men. With Simpson coming off a high-profile loss to Chris Leben, and Munoz coming off a loss to Yushin Okami, this is a chance for two similar fighters to come out at the top of the heap.

Both men came out of the box with stellar wrestling credentials and proved to have heavy hands in those early bouts, but have found need of polish as they stepped into the middle of the UFC pack. While Munoz is a bit young and better conditioned, Simpson has the advantage of freakish accuracy with his hands and has run through the majority of his opponents to date with his novice, yet powerful stand-up skills. With Munoz having the higher ceiling of the two, it’ll be interesting to see where both men stand come fight time.

With the wrestling contest likely being a wash, we’ll have a striking match on our hands here. While Munoz is a bit more polished in the striking department, Simpson is an absolute horror in the first few minutes of a fight and Munoz chin has been found faulty in the past. This is a close bout, but one I think Simpson can take in the first couple minutes if he’s true to form, and one worth the risk at +145.

Dennis Hallman – MMAMoneyLine (+135 on BetUS)

I have to admit…I was pretty shocked to see Dennis Hallman as the underdog here.  Karo Parisyan will be making his return to the octagon after close t a year hiatus.  In his last fight against Dong Hyun Kim, he won a very close and controversial decision which was a moot point after his subsequent failed drug test.  After the Kim fiasco, Parisyan pulled out of a fight with Dustin Hazelett at the last minute, sparking Dana White to publicly say Karo would never fight in the UFC again.  Lucky for Parisyan fans, White has a short memory when it comes to kicking fighters out of the UFC.

Karo Parisyan is deceptively strong, very experienced, and has some of the best Judo in MMA.  However, his mental strength is a huge question mark.  In his most recent fight for the Impact FC promotion, he requested his fight be moved from the co-main event slot to the curtain jerker due to his anxiety.  Unfortunately, there is no avoiding the bright lights for a surely-packed, start studded UFC 123.  For further evidence on how a fighter’s mental game effects his performance, watch Sonnen/Filho II.

Karo Parisyan aside, Dennis Hallman has looked very good in his most recent UFC stint.  Hallman, one of the most veteran guys on the UFC roster, decisioned the talented Ben Saunders in August.  Although his return fight to the UFC against John Howard was a late knockout loss, Hallman dominated the fight to that point.

Stylistically, it is going to be difficult for either guy to finish.  Karo wins more than half of his fights by submission, and Hallman hasn’t been submitted in his 50+ fight career.  Hallman has 32 submission victories on his record, but Parisyan has yet to be submitted in his career.  This fight is very likely to go to a decision, where Hallman’s condition and recent activity should give him the advantage late.

If this fight were to happen without any obvious mental issues, I think Parisyan would win this fight in the clinch.  Hallman found success against Howard and Saunders with clinch work and take downs, but Parisyan is a monster in the clinch.  Since both of these guys are far from impressive on the feet, this fight will be fought in the clinch and on the ground.  While I can definitely see Parisyan throwing Hallman in the clinch, I can also see Hallman taking Parisyan down.  I think Karo wins the first round, and his conditioning fails him against a very tough opponent in the second and third en route to a decision loss.  I like Superman’s odds as an underdog, as there is no way I can bet on Parisyan in his current state.

BJ Penn – MMAMoneyLine (-160 on SportBet)

BJ Penn and Matt Hughes have many similar situations throughout their fight career.  Besides being legends of MMA, both guys were once unbeatable champions in their respective weight classes.  Both fighters have also been deemed “over the hill” when knocked off of their thrones by very deserving champions in Frankie Edgar and George St. Pierre.  This weekend is the perfect time for Penn and Hughes to have the final fight of their three fight series.

Hughes comes into this fight with momentum; he was the underdog against Ricardo Almeida when he submitted him in August.  Before the Almeida fight, his performances against Renzo Gracie and Matt Serra were widely criticized, albeit victorious.  Penn is coming into this fight with absolutely no momentum; he lost a razor thin decision to Frankie Edgar in April and botched his chance at redemption in August.  In addition, Penn lost to Hughes in their last meeting.

I think momentum matters less in this fight because of the level of professionalism both guys enjoy.  Penn and Hughes are consummate veterans who are a little “long in the tooth” to deal with the same pressure and anxiety that most fighters face.  This fight comes down to two things:  skill and determination.  Skill wise, BJ Penn has superior striking and submissions while Matt Hughes enjoys a wrestling and strength advantage.  Contrary to popular belief, I don’t think we have to worry about either guy’s gas tank.  As far as determination goes, Matt Hughes has little problem getting up for a fight considering his uber-competitive nature.  I think BJ Penn is pissed and embarrassed at his last two performances, and is very focused going into this weekend.

Bluntly put, Matt Hughes isn’t Frankie Edgar.  Edgar has dynamic, frustrating striking coupled with blinding speed that is difficult for any Lightweight to deal with.  Hughes is a rudimentary striker whose attack is slow, calculated, and powerful.  For Hughes to win this fight, he is going to have to take BJ down and not get submitted.  Edgar was able to take Penn down more times than Penn has been taken down in his entire career, but most of that can be attributed to Edgar’s flawless synthesis of striking and take downs.  Penn won’t have to worry about Hughes’ striking, making defending the take down much easier.  Say what you will, but Penn is still one of the hardest guys to put on the mat in MMA.

Best case scenario for Hughes is that he gets the fight to the floor from a take down or the clinch.  He then still has to deal with the fact that he is laying on top of arguably the greatest American BJJ practitioner alive.  I have no problem assuming that Penn will dominate this fight standing, stand up quickly when taken down, or find a submission in a scramble or from the bottom.  Most likely, this fight ends with a decisive decision in Penn’s favor.  I still like the former Lightweight and Welterweight champ at -160, and bravo for those who got him when he was actually an underdog when the line first came out.

MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

Machida/UD

Penn/UD

Sotiropoulos/SUB/2

Davis/SUB/1

Harris/TKO/2

Foster/SD

Simpson/UD

Hallman/UD

Griffin/SD

Kelly/TKO/3

Barboza/KO/1

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

Penn – 2 u. at +105 on Sportsbook

Simpson – .5 u. at +120 on Bodog

Foster – 1 u. at -140 on Sportsbook

Hallman -1 u. at +125 on Bodog

Hallman/O’Brien/Lullo – .25 on BetUS (a guy can hope, can’t he?)