Anyone else think Kendall Grove looks like George Sotiropoulos in that picture? Anyway, tonight’s Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale takes place in Las Vegas (translated from Spanish to English as “The Meadows”), Nevada. The main event, if it could be called that, features former UFC savior Stephan Bonnar squaring off against James Irvin eye crusher Igor Pokrajac. Jonathan Brookins and Michael Johnson will also be duking it out for a six figure UFC contract. Rounding out the card will be an interesting scrap between BJJ ace Demian Maia and former TUF champ Kendall Grove.
As with any other TUF finale card, there is money to be made for the smart yet risky sports bettor. Because there are so many fighter that so many people know so little about, fight lines tend to be a little off. Myself and Mike Hammersmith of MMAHive will be discussing our best bets for tonight’s Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale. Before making any wagers on tomorrow’s card, make sure to stay up to date on The Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale odds and check out who other well-informed MMA bloggers are picking over at MMAMoneyLine’s The Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale Pros’ Picks. And here we go…
Fredson Paixao – Mike Hammersmith -165 on Bodog/Sportsbook)
Coming off of a tough short-notice loss to Chinese MMA pioneer Tie Quan Zhang, the UFC has decided to throw Pablo Garza to the lions, giving him to BJJ ace Fredson Paixao. While Garza showed some skills in his first WEC bout, he has loose transitions and submission skills, showing potential, but a great deal of inexperience with his mat work. The worst possible match for someone like that is to face a strong fundamental grappler, who will shut down their offense and easily work their way into superior positions to win. Paixao is just such a fighter, as a highly-regarded BJJ black belt with wrestling skills to boot, making a near impossible fight for Garza. Short of a fast KO on someone known for their conservative approach, Paixao should easily take down and tap out Garza in the first round. Bookies don’t seem to agree with me, starting Paixao’s line ridiculously low and making for a huge payday with a heavy bet at -165.
Rick Story – Mike Hammersmith (+175 on Bodog/Sportsbook)
Both men have grown, but both also have holes in their games that the other can exploit in this fight. For Hendricks, he’s a world-class wrestler, but has trouble when pressured. For Story, he has tremendous offensive ability, but has been out-wrestled in the past and his gas tank isn’t up to a three round war. The first round will likely decide this one, as either Hendricks begins the long process of grinding Story down, or finds himself staring at the lights.
This is a very close bout, but one that I think Story is better suited to win. With a size advantage and no fear of engaging Hendricks, he has a great opportunity to put together punches and overwhelm the wrestler here. While the odds were much sweeter a month ago when they were released, taking Story at +175 is a sound value bet in this close competition.
Aaron Wilkinson – Mike Hammersmith (+105 on Sportsbook)
With all TUF participants, fighters tend to transform dramatically in the months following the show, and both men have the determination to be dangerous in a short amount of time. My issue with this one is the distance each man has to travel to be UFC level, and I’d have to say Wilkinson is much closer to that mark than McKenzie will ever be. While having a “goofy” fighting style might help in the minor leagues of MMA, such quirkiness often becomes a liability against strong technical fighters. Though McKenzie might have an edge in wrestling and pressure, I’d be very surprised to see his major faults ironed out by show time.
McKenzie is a character, but he isn’t much of a fighter. Being an undersized Lightweight will do him little good at this level, and lacking fundamental striking defense will do him few favors at this level. While he does have a tricky guillotine, once the cat is out of the bag, it isn’t so difficult to avoid getting caught in such things, especially with Wilkinson training with dangerous submission grapplers. With too much ground to make up to compete at this level, McKenzie will find himself battered on the feet and hustled on the mat, for a late submission or decision loss. Oddly, Wilkinson comes into this one as a fairly serious underdog, and while there’s always a risk in betting on TUF fighters, this one seems worth the gamble at +105.
Kendall Grove – MMAMoneyLine (+300 on Bodog)
When this line came out, it was one of those “yeowwww, that line is off” moments for me. Kendall Grove at +300 against Demian Maia? Thank you, sir. Listen, I know Maia is a BJJ bad ass. You don’t submit that many UFC caliber guys by luck. However, we have to look at the numbers: Maia is giving up a half of a foot in height and God knows how many inches reach and Kendall Grove has only been submitted once in his career (five years ago).
Can Demian Maia submit Kendall Grove? Absolutely…he has the ability to submit anyone in the division. However, Maia is going to have to get Grove to the ground to submit him. If Kendall had any game plan whatsoever, he would use his striking to keep Maia at bay. Grove is a very skilled striker, which compliments his height very well. When he does lose, he generally loses to heavy handed strikers (Mark Munoz, Jorge Rivera, Patrick Cote, etc). His striking coupled with a decent sprawl could be all it takes to get a decision.
At the end of the day, Maia is a pure jits guy no matter what anyone says. The guys striking blows…sorry Dan Miller. Maia has to contend with Grove’s stand up, not to mention his average to good submission defense. I can see Grove hitting Maia hard, Maia going for the panic double leg, and Grove finishing him off with hammer fists. I think Kendall Grove is a good bet here at far worse odds; at +300 he’s a gift.
Leonard Garcia – MMAMoneyLine (-170 on Bookmaker/SportBet)
Nam Phan is overrated. I should just end this analysis at that sentence, but I will elaborate so I don’t get called out for being lazy. Every name that Phan ever fought he lost to (Omigawa, Evangelista, Cavalcante, Thomson, McCullough). I wasn’t impressed by Phan’s performance on the reality show, and I think he has a hell of a test in front of him.
Leonard Garcia is borderline impossible to knock out, so we can throw that possibility out. Garcia also has an underrated ground game, well deserved by his penchant to stand and bang with everyone he fights. If Nam Phan does take Garcia down, a submission victory will be hard to come by. I just cannot see a way for Nam Phan to get a W here outside of outpointing Garcia for three rounds. To do that, he needs to have the chin and balls to stand in front of Leonard Garcia. Rough deal…I’ll take my chances with “The Haymaker” (Leonard, if you’re reading this…that is your new nickname).
MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:
Bonnar/SD
Brookins/SUB/1
Grove/TKO/2
Hendricks/UD
Garcia/KO/2
Attonito/UD
Paixao/SUB/2
Campuzano/SD
Wilkinson/UD
Toner/TKO/2
Watson/UD
MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):
Grove – .5 u. at +300 on Bodog
Garcia – 1.5 u. at -175 on Bodog
Wilkinson – 1 u. at +105 on Sportsbook