UFC 126 – Silva VS. Belfort takes place Saturday, February 5, 2011 at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in “The Meadows”, Nevada. The main event features one of the pound for pound best mixed martial artists in the world and UFC Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva defending his belt against highly touted Vitor Belfort. The Light Heavyweights will also be in action as former UFC champions Forrest Griffin and Rich Franklin fight for title contention and undefeated* rising superstars Jon Jones and Ryan Bader square off for a spot at the top of the 205 lb. heap. Another notable dynamic of UFC 126 is that two very impressive Japanese fighters in Michihiro Omigawa and Norifumi “Kid” Yamamoto return and debut respectively to the friendly confines of the UFC Octagon.
Although this weekend’s Super Bowl is the biggest game in town for sports bettors, UFC 126 looks to be an action heavy card. With a strong belief in Vitor Belfort and Jon Jones upsets, a close line between Rich Franklin and Forrest Griffin, and improving lines for the aforementioned Omigawa and Yamamoto, both casual and hard core MMA fans and bettors will be surely partaking in this weekend’s cage-related endeavors.
As always, my colleague Mike Hammersmith of MMAHive and I will be dishing out our betting recommendations for Saturday’s UFC 126. Before you bet, make sure to stay current on line shopping at MMAMoneyLine’s UFC 126 Odds page and also check out MMAMoneyLine’s UFC 126 Pros’ Picks. So without further adieu…
Anderson Silva – Mike Hammersmith (-220 on BetUS)
While no one can sell a fight like Chael Sonnen, the UFC is pushing Vitor Belfort as the most dangerous striker Anderson Silva has ever faced; generating huge anticipation for this fight. While Belfort is a fairly dangerous fighter in his own right, there are several factors that must be considered here.
While Belfort’s power and hand speed are certainly impressive, his list of victims in today’s MMA world are not. Also consider that Belfort’s ground game is far below the bar in the UFC, and you have a situation where Belfort needs a decisive KO against someone known for their solid chin and bottom game BJJ. A decent first round will turn into a downward spiral for Belfort, as Silva batters him methodically, leading to a late TKO stoppage or lopsided decision win, setting up one half of GSP vs Silva.
Forrest Griffin – Mike Hammersmith (+143 on SportBet)
It’s hard to imagine two guys who have taken more punishment in the cage than Forrest Griffin and Rich Franklin. With neither guy making it out of a fight with at least a nasty facial laceration, both men step into the cage young in real years, but old in fight years, with a lot of wear and tear between them. With Griffin having sat out all of 2010 with a shoulder injury, and Franklin famously getting his arm kicked in half in Chuck Liddell‘s swan song fight, it’s going to be interesting to see where each man’s confidence and conditioning lay.
While Franklin is undoubtedly the better technical striker of the two, Griffin comes into this bout with a high-level of conditioning and a great deal of size over Franklin, who will need to work his boxing and precision footwork to get one over on Griffin. A fight plan like that requires a young man’s reflexes and legs, and with the distinct lack of grace displayed against Chuck Liddell, I think it’s safe to say that Franklin’s best days are behind him. In an ultra violent bout, Griffin does just enough to take a split decision win over Franklin in another instant classic.
Gabe Ruediger – Mike Hammersmith (+170 on Bodog)
A sleeper fight of the night, the fast-paced stand-up of Paul Taylor will clash with Gabe Ruediger’s underrated BJJ game. As with all Taylor fights, his heart and pace are never in question, but his ability to keep off the mat and/or finish opponents is. Ruediger is hardly a world-beater at this level, but Taylor’s continued lack of take down defense will seal the deal for him here. Look for a surprisingly exciting fight, but one where Ruediger is able to hustle Taylor on the mat on his way to a decision win.
Forrest Griffin – MMAMoneyLine (+130 on BetDSI)
I dropped a tough one in my Strikeforce – Diaz VS. Cyborg BetDSI Ultimate Underdog bet. I felt good about Robbie Lawler in the first round, but he had nothing for Souza‘s relentless take downs and top control. Oh well…them’s the chances you take when betting on the ‘dogs. After much deliberation, my BetDSI Ultimate Underdog pick for UFC 126 is former UFC Light Heavyweight champion Forrest Griffin.
The Forrest Griffin/Rich Franklin fight is a coin flip…plain and simple. The former Middleweight champion and Light Heavyweight title holder have many similarities besides being two of the most recognizable and likable fighters under the Zuffa banner. Both fighters are well rounded, battle tested, and willing to engage. Griffin will have a size and strength advantage, which will serve him well in the clinch. Franklin has the edge in punching power, reflected in his fights against the likes of Chuck Liddell, Ken Shamrock, and Nate Quarry. Griffin and Franklin’s serviceable wrestling skills and underrated Brazilian Jiu Jitsu will likely make those aspects a wash. The conditioning of both fighters will also not be in question.
I see this fight being three rounds of kickboxing and clinch work. Both guys have immense respect for one another and will likely spend the first round engaging in the feeling out process. The only plausible way this fight sees a finish is a Franklin knockout, which is definitely possible. However, Forrest Griffin utilizing the clinch against his smaller foe could just as easily lead to a unanimous decision win for the former Ultimate Fighter champion.
This writeup is pretty much a long winded way of saying “this fight is 50/50″. The current odds are around -170 Franklin/+140 Griffin. I’m taking the numbers here and going with Griffin in a very close fight.
Paul Taylor – MMAMoneyLine (-200 on BetCRIS/Bookmaker)
Many knowledgeable MMA people think Saturday’s fight between Paul Taylor and Gabe Ruediger will be an entertaining mix up between two skilled Lightweights. While I am not disagreeing, I think it will be less competitive fight than most believe. Let’s look a little deeper at Ruediger’s last 6 victories before his loss to Joe Lauzon. In this span, Ruediger won 5 fights via submission and 1 fight via technical knockout. While a 6 fight win streak is impressive, you have to look at the level of competition. The losing fighters in Ruediger’s 6 fight win streak have hardly faced top level competition, and have a collective 15 submission losses out of 24 total defeats. Take out Wander Braga and Joe Lauzon’s records, the total record of Gabe’s recent competition is an unimpressive 28-23 (not to mention one fighter has a 0-1 record).
In Taylor, you have a fighter who has 8 fights inside the Octagon against top level competition like Sam Stout, John Hathaway, and Chris Lytle. Although Taylor’s 3-5 UFC record is far from impressive, he has only been stopped by Marcus Davis in a submission loss. In it worth noting that Taylor rocked Davis before getting caught in an uber-impressive armbar.
All statistics aside, Ruediger will look to use his submission acumen against a foe who is very hard to tap. If Gabe doesn’t have his submission game to go to, he is ineffective. Taylor has proven effective against wrestlers like Peter Sobotta, so Ruediger’s take downs shouldn’t give him too much of a problem. Taylor will have a large edge in the striking portion of this fight, which will be the decider. I expect Taylor to outpoint and outwork Ruediger while avoid his take down attempts en route to a decisive unanimous decision. Taylor at -200 is a good line to me.
MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:
Silva/TKO/3
Griffin/SD
Jones/TKO/2
Torres/SUB/2
Ellenberger/UD
Cerrone/SUB/3
Mendes/UD
Taylor/UD
Johnson/UD
Kingsbury/SD
Pierce/UD
MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):
Griffin – 1.5 u. at +130 on BetDSI
Taylor – 2 u. at -185 on Bookmaker
