MMABettingBlog WatchKalibRun MMAConvert MiddleEasy MMAAdNet MMAValor MMAHive Total BJ Penn vs. Frankie Edgar Penn – Penn Penn Penn Penn Penn Penn 100% Randy Couture vs. James Toney Couture – Couture Couture Toney Couture Couture Couture 83% Demian Maia vs. Mario Miranda Maia – Maia Maia Maia Maia Miranda Maia 83% […]
UFC 118 – Edgar VS. Penn II takes place this Saturday, August 28th, in “Bahstan”. In the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s first event in the historic city, a rematch for the UFC Lightweight title will be contested between Frankie Edgar and BJ Penn. The number one contender for this title will also be determined by Kenny […]
UFC 118 – Edgar VS. Penn II takes place this Saturday, August 28th, in “Bahstan”. In the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s first event in the historic city, a rematch for the UFC Lightweight title will be contested between Frankie Edgar and BJ Penn. The number one contender for this title will also be determined by Kenny Florian versus Gray Maynard. The co-main event (arguably considered the main draw in public eyes) will feature a “boxing versus MMA” bout between respective former champions James Toney and Randy Couture.
In customary fashion, my friend Mike Hammersmith will also be giving his best bets for this weekend’s event. Before you place your bets, make sure to “line shop” by checking out the UFC 118 odds across several sports books, in addition to looking over the MMAMoneyLine Betting Guide and UFC 118 Pros’ Picks.
In a potential sleeper fight of the night, New Jersey fighter Greg Soto will look to gain a foothold inside the UFC, coming off a disappointing DQ against Matt Riddle in his debut. A BJJ brown belt and top-notch wrestler in one of the most competitive districts in the state, Soto has done well for himself in the cage in his career, but will need to be sharp against TUF 9 veteran Nick Osipczak if he hopes to stick around in the UFC for long.
This is an interesting fight, and one where the line has been steadily moving due to a bit of MMath on the part of bettors, based on the fighter’s common opponent in Matt Riddle. While Soto was well on his way to a losing decision against the Welterweight workhorse, Osipczak easily bet Riddle in every round, and finally sealed the deal in the third with some brutal ground and pound. This comparison, for my two cents, is apples and oranges though, as Riddle is a clinch wrestling grinder and found himself eating rapid offense on the feet while trying to get his game working. If there’s a comparison to be made, it would be between Soto and Osipczak’s last opponent in Welterweight ox Rick Story, whose simple takedowns, top control and submission defense earned him a tough decision over Osipczak.
I wouldn’t normally recommend this fight, but considering it’s gone from even odds to Osipczak being a firm favorite, taking a small chance on Soto at +150 suddenly becomes a smart move. Look for Soto to work his magic on the mat, neatly avoid Osipczak’s submissions, and get the judge’s nod.
Not too many fighters have had as tough of a road in the UFC as Dan Miller, but with three loses in a row to top competition, the stage is set for him to take back his place at the top of the division. Miller is an interesting mix of wrestling and BJJ, and much like his brother Jim Miller, finds a way to meet force with slickness and slickness with force, having baited top-level wrestler Jake Rosholt into a quick tap guillotine, but also having muscled notoriously savvy grapplers Rob Kimmons and Matt Horwich by virtue of his wrestling talent and heavy top game.
His opponent is John Salter, who has the unenviable position of being a poor man’s Dan Miller, taking on Dan Miller. This is a fight Salter has practically no outs to win, being unable to stop Miller’s takedowns and submissions and not having the standing skills to do much in the face of a superior opponent. Additionally, the three losses in a row has seemed to scare book makers, as Miller at -265 is easily the best bet on the card, for my money.
Coming off a complete demolition of David “The Crow” Loiseau in his last bout, Miranda has flown under the radar in the UFC, but has a chance to launch himself deep into the Middleweight ranks here. A multiple-time national champion in both Greco Roman and Freestyle wrestling, Miranda compliments his grappling savvy with a BJJ black belt and strong technical muay thai skills, all packed into a giant Middleweight frame.
While we all know Maia is a killer on the mat, we’ve also all seen what happens when he can’t put a fight on the mat on his own terms. Miranda presents a real problem here with his multi-faceted skill-set, considerable size advantage, as well as a long training camp, part of which was spent dummying as Chael Sonnen against Maia’s last foe, Anderson Silva. This is a 50/50 fight as to whether or not Maia can put this on the mat and do anything to Miranda, or if he’ll be stymied by the lengthy striking and smart takedown attack of Miranda, and Miranda makes for a good underdog pick at +205.
Kenny Florian, thus far always the bridesmaid and never the bride. The Massachusetts native has come a long way since his stint on The Ultimate Fighter. For the last few years, Florian has been a stalwart in the elite class of UFC Lightweight. His Muay Thai and mental game has caught up to his technical BJJ abilities and lanky, MMA-friendly physique, making him an extremely dangerous fighter.
Florian will have a tough fight against pedigreed wrestler, improving boxer and decision machine Gray Maynard. How tough of a fight? Not as tough as most people think. Whenever a wrestler of Maynard’s level is involved, the possibility of a hard fought, grinding fight greatly increases.
However, Kenny Florian has several advantages in this fight. He’s fought several high quality wrestlers already including Takanori Gomi, Clay Guida, Sean Sherk and Joe Stevenson. Against this foursome, he’s gone 3-1 with his only loss being to a bloodied and beaten Sherk. Maynard has never fought anyone like Florian; the closest comparison probably being Nate Diaz. In addition, I believe Maynard has too much confidence in his improved boxing. If he stands with Florian, he’s likely in serious trouble. Maynard elected to stand with Nate Diaz because of Diaz’s ground prowess, and I expect him to do the same against another high level BJJ practitioner.
In the end, Florian gets the better of Maynard in the striking and submission category. Maynard does have a distinct wrestling advantage, but that comes against a very good submission fighter. Plus, Maynard might not even use his wrestling as much as he should. I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again: Kenny Florian only loses to the best, and Gray Maynard, although incredibly tough, is not the best. I’d have little problem throwing a unit on Florian at -155.
Easily the best bet on the card. Everything about Marcus Davis says “I’m not going to stand a chance against Nate Diaz”. The well known “punches in bunches” boxing style of the Diaz boys poses a huge problem for a methodical striker like Davis. In addition, Davis will not find refuge on the mat against the Gracie black belt.
Davis is a big, strong, muscular Welterweight, while Diaz is a tall, skinny Lighweight. The problem is this is MMA, not weightlifting. The more muscle on your frame, the more oxygen your body needs. Diaz has some of the best cardio in MMA and I can easily see him taking Marcus into deep waters. One last nail in the coffin is that Marcus Davis, an ex-pro boxer, has a propensity to cut easily.
Diaz isn’t going to knock Marcus Davis out, but a cut stoppage, submission or definitive decision victory seems obvious. I’ll go with the cut in the 3rd. Nate Diaz is still a really good play at -200.
I differ with Mr. Hammersmith on the Osipczak/Soto fight. When the odds came out, this line was even. I jumped on Osipczak immediately. In their common opponent, Matt Riddle, Nick Osipczak dominated for three rounds while Greg Soto was well on his way to a decision loss before an illegal upkick. Although Osipczak dropped a decision to Rick Story, most agree that the decision could have easily gone the other way. I also think Rick Story further established himself as a serious mixed martial artist with his beatdown on Dustin Hazelett.
Osipczak is the better fighter, in my opinion. Although he is billed as a striker and Soto a wrestler/BJJ player, Osipczak showed his mettle against a good wrestler. I see this fight playing out a lot like Osipczak/Riddle, with Slick Nick’s defense being too frustrating and offense too overwhelming. Hopefully you got Osipczak at better odds, but -155 on BetUS is certainly worth a unit.
MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:
Penn/SUB/2
Couture/SUB/1
Miranda/KO/2
Florian/UD
Diaz/UD
Lauzon/TKO/2
Lentz/UD
Miller/UD
Osipczak/SUB/2
Pierce/KO/1
MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):
WEC 50 – Cruz VS Benavidez takes place tonight, August 18th in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main event features a Bantamweight championship bout between Dominick Cruz and Joseph Benavidez. Also appearing on the card are Cub Swanson, Chad Mendes, Scott Jorgensen, Brad Pickett, Bart Palaszewski, Anthony Pettis and Shane Roller. As always, Mike Hammersmith will […]
WEC 50 – Cruz VS Benavidez takes place tonight, August 18th in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main event features a Bantamweight championship bout between Dominick Cruz and Joseph Benavidez. Also appearing on the card are Cub Swanson, Chad Mendes, Scott Jorgensen, Brad Pickett, Bart Palaszewski, Anthony Pettis and Shane Roller.
As always, Mike Hammersmith will be helping me out with the picks for WEC 50. Make sure to check out the odds and Pros’ Picks before making any last minute bets!
It’s interesting to think that Bart Palaszewski has more experience than any three fighters on this card, and while that experience helps in keeping cool under fire, it also illustrates the problems a fighter has, and seemingly continues to have. Palaszewski’s opponent at WEC 50 is an unheralded 9-1 fighter named Zach Micklewright, and while you might not have heard of him yet, he’s likely destined for big things after this fight.
While Palaszewski has a great track record in the cage and is a jack of all trades, he’s always had two weaknesses; strong wrestlers and rangy strikers. Micklewright is the latter, and one of the better muay thai strikers Palaszewski will have faced in his career, as well as one of the best conditioned athletes he’s faced. While Palaszewski has decent inside boxing and could take this fight to the mat if Micklewright closes distance too often, its just as likely Micklewright picks Palaszewski apart from the outside and walks away with a decision or late TKO. In a very close bout, Micklewright comes in as an excellent bet at +200.
Fight fans and bookies are funny sometimes, and no more so than with fighters like Mackens Semerzier. When Semerzier came onto the scene against Wagnny Fabiano as a complete unknown, the odds were firmly in Fabiano’s favor at -700 and essentially no one gave Semerzier any sort of a chance against the highly-respected BJJ grappler. Fabiano apparently didn’t give Semerzier much of a chance either, as he foolishly dropped into a triangle and found himself on the receiving end of “Upset Of The Year” in several publications.
Instead of people looking at this fight and coming to the conclusion that Fabiano made a foolish mistake against someone with more skill than he thought, fans jumped onto the Semerzier bandwagon, assumed he was a better grappler than the mighty Fabiano, and blindly followed him to a decision loss against Devidis Taurosevicius, where Semerzier was a -155 favorite against someone whom he should have rightly been a hefty underdog against.
What happens now is very important in sports betting, as there’s a period of uncertainty in Semerzier with his 1-1 record, and often the odds on his fights will be screwy for quite some time. Such is the case here as Semerzier takes on veteran grappler Javier Vazquez as a substantial underdog at +190.
While I feel Vazquez is one of the most under-rated grapplers of his time, Semerzier isn’t the push-over people assumed he was in his first fight, and may actually make this a competitive bout. What this really comes down to is scoring though, as I don’t doubt this fight will find its way to a decision. Looking at Vazquez record, you’ll notice an unusually large amount of split decisions after his promotion to a black belt in BJJ. This is mainly due to his peculiar method of shooting a takedown, where he flips into guard at the moment his takedown fails as a way of achieving a ground fight even if he can’t get top position. While this is an interesting and innovative attack method, it often gives the judges the illusion that Vazquez has been stuffed and taken down by his opponent, leading to top control points and decisions that rightly should have gone his way. In what could be a frantic grappling bout, these moments are critical and may result in a close fight going the way of Semerzier, making him worth a small wager.
Note: For my picks, I’m going to be giving a bit of an abbreviated version. Here are the main points for my three best picks.
Fredson Paixao versus Bryan Caraway will surely be a grappling exhibition. With that being said, I believe Paixao to be a superior grappler. Both guys have mostly lost against top tier competition, but if Caraway can’t defend a Mark Hominick submission, I don’t think he’ll have the chops to keep a guy of Paixao’s pedigree off him. I like Fredson Paixao at -170.
Although Dave Jansen showed some serious toughness against Kamal Shalorus, he wasn’t close to finishing the fight at any point. This fight actually opened with Jansen the favorite, but has since flipped over (if you got Lamas at underdog odds, nice work). Lamas has wins over Bart Palaszewski, Bendy Casimir and James Krause, some tough fighters with diverse skill sets. Jansen does hold an impressive win over Rich Crunkilton, but the Cleat has a very similar style. Both guys are strong wrestlers, but Lamas clearly holds a striking advantage and is the more explosive fighter. I still like Ricardo Lamas at -135.
MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:
Cruz/UD
Roller/UD
Jorgensen/UD
Mendes/SUB/1
Micklewright/TKO/2
Lamas/UD
Vazquez/SD
Paixao/SUB/2
Njokuani/KO/1
Castillo/TKO/2
MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):
