WEC 50 Predictions

WEC 50 – Cruz VS Benavidez takes place tonight, August 18th in Las Vegas, Nevada.  The main event features a Bantamweight championship bout between Dominick Cruz and Joseph Benavidez.  Also appearing on the card are Cub Swanson, Chad Mendes, Scott Jorgensen, Brad Pickett, Bart Palaszewski, Anthony Pettis and Shane Roller. As always, Mike Hammersmith will […]

WEC 50 – Cruz VS Benavidez takes place tonight, August 18th in Las Vegas, Nevada.  The main event features a Bantamweight championship bout between Dominick Cruz and Joseph Benavidez.  Also appearing on the card are Cub Swanson, Chad Mendes, Scott Jorgensen, Brad Pickett, Bart Palaszewski, Anthony Pettis and Shane Roller.

As always, Mike Hammersmith will be helping me out with the picks for WEC 50.  Make sure to check out the odds and Pros’ Picks before making any last minute bets!

Zach Micklewright – Mike Hammersmith (+200 on BetUS)

It’s interesting to think that Bart Palaszewski has more experience than any three fighters on this card, and while that experience helps in keeping cool under fire, it also illustrates the problems a fighter has, and seemingly continues to have. Palaszewski’s opponent at WEC 50 is an unheralded 9-1 fighter named Zach Micklewright, and while you might not have heard of him yet, he’s likely destined for big things after this fight.

While Palaszewski has a great track record in the cage and is a jack of all trades, he’s always had two weaknesses; strong wrestlers and rangy strikers. Micklewright is the latter, and one of the better muay thai strikers Palaszewski will have faced in his career, as well as one of the best conditioned athletes he’s faced. While Palaszewski has decent inside boxing and could take this fight to the mat if Micklewright closes distance too often, its just as likely Micklewright picks Palaszewski apart from the outside and walks away with a decision or late TKO. In a very close bout, Micklewright comes in as an excellent bet at +200.

 

Mackens Semerzier – Mike Hammersmith +190 on Bodog)

Fight fans and bookies are funny sometimes, and no more so than with fighters like Mackens Semerzier. When Semerzier came onto the scene against Wagnny Fabiano as a complete unknown, the odds were firmly in Fabiano’s favor at -700 and essentially no one gave Semerzier any sort of a chance against the highly-respected BJJ grappler. Fabiano apparently didn’t give Semerzier much of a chance either, as he foolishly dropped into a triangle and found himself on the receiving end of “Upset Of The Year” in several publications.

Instead of people looking at this fight and coming to the conclusion that Fabiano made a foolish mistake against someone with more skill than he thought, fans jumped onto the Semerzier bandwagon, assumed he was a better grappler than the mighty Fabiano, and blindly followed him to a decision loss against Devidis Taurosevicius, where Semerzier was a -155 favorite against someone whom he should have rightly been a hefty underdog against.

What happens now is very important in sports betting, as there’s a period of uncertainty in Semerzier with his 1-1 record, and often the odds on his fights will be screwy for quite some time. Such is the case here as Semerzier takes on veteran grappler Javier Vazquez as a substantial underdog at +190.

While I feel Vazquez is one of the most under-rated grapplers of his time, Semerzier isn’t the push-over people assumed he was in his first fight, and may actually make this a competitive bout. What this really comes down to is scoring though, as I don’t doubt this fight will find its way to a decision. Looking at Vazquez record, you’ll notice an unusually large amount of split decisions after his promotion to a black belt in BJJ. This is mainly due to his peculiar method of shooting a takedown, where he flips into guard at the moment his takedown fails as a way of achieving a ground fight even if he can’t get top position. While this is an interesting and innovative attack method, it often gives the judges the illusion that Vazquez has been stuffed and taken down by his opponent, leading to top control points and decisions that rightly should have gone his way. In what could be a frantic grappling bout, these moments are critical and may result in a close fight going the way of Semerzier, making him worth a small wager.

 

Note: For my picks, I’m going to be giving a bit of an abbreviated version. Here are the main points for my three best picks.
 
 
Fredson Paixao – MMAMoneyLine (-170 on 5Dimes)

Fredson Paixao versus Bryan Caraway will surely be a grappling exhibition.  With that being said, I believe Paixao to be a superior grappler.  Both guys have mostly lost against top tier competition, but if Caraway can’t defend a Mark Hominick submission, I don’t think he’ll have the chops to keep a guy of Paixao’s pedigree off him.  I like Fredson Paixao at -170.

 
Ricardo Lamas – MMAMoneyLine (-135 on BetUS)

Although Dave Jansen showed some serious toughness against Kamal Shalorus, he wasn’t close to finishing the fight at any point.  This fight actually opened with Jansen the favorite, but has since flipped over (if you got Lamas at underdog odds, nice work).  Lamas has wins over Bart Palaszewski, Bendy Casimir and James Krause, some tough fighters with diverse skill sets.  Jansen does hold an impressive win over Rich Crunkilton, but the Cleat has a very similar style.  Both guys are strong wrestlers, but Lamas clearly holds a striking advantage and is the more explosive fighter.  I still like Ricardo Lamas at -135.
 

MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

Cruz/UD

Roller/UD

Jorgensen/UD

Mendes/SUB/1

Micklewright/TKO/2

Lamas/UD

Vazquez/SD

Paixao/SUB/2

Njokuani/KO/1

Castillo/TKO/2

 

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

Micklewright .5 u. at +190 on BetUS

Paixao – .75 u. at -175 on Bodog

Lamas – 1 u. at -135 on BetUS