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Get a detailed breakdown of the betting lines for UFC 268, which is set to hit Madison Square Garden in New York City this weekend (Sat., Nov. 6, 2021), including best bets, underdogs, favorites and much more!

Two title rematches headline the Octagon’s return to Madison Square Garden in New York, N.Y., this Saturday (Nov. 6, 2021) when Kamaru Usman and Rose Namajunas face dangerous rivals Colby Covington and Zhang Weili at UFC 268. The ESPN+-streamed pay-per-view (PPV) card also features a Lightweight grudge match between Justin Gaethje and Michale Chandler, as well as a potential “Fight of the Year” between all-action Shane Burgos and Billy Quarantillo.

UFC 268 is a damn-fine offering from the world’s largest fight promotion, albeit one that’ll cost you. Let’s get ourselves some funds …

What Went Wrong at UFC 268?

Despite Damir Ismagulov imploding on the scales and Virna Jandiroba failing to parlay a hugely dominant first round into an actual victory, we did pretty alright thanks to strong efforts from Andre Petroski, Petr Yan and Tagir Ulanbekov. Let’s keep this momentum going!

UFC 268 Odds For The Under Card:

Alex Pereira (-250) vs. Andreas Michailidis (+210)
Bobby Green (-175) vs. Al Iaquinta (+155)
Phil Hawes (-310) vs. Chris Curtis (+255)
Nassourdine Imavov (-117) vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (-107)
Ian Garry (-360) vs. Jordan Williams (+300)
Gian Villante (-115) vs. Chris Barnett (-105)
Dustin Jacoby (-280) vs. John Allan (+240)
Melsik Baghdasaryan (-300) vs. Bruno Souza (+250)
Ode Osbourne (-170) vs. CJ Vergara (+150)

Thoughts: You know what? I picked seven out of eight “Prelims” correctly last week. So let’s cast a wide net this weekend: Alex Pereira, Ian Garry, Chris Barnett, Melsik Baghdasaryan and Ode Osbourne are all worth your money.

“Poatan” may have only recently dedicated himself fully to mixed martial arts (MMA), but he’s a long-time training partner of Glover Teixeira’s, who had his first cage fight back in 2015. I trust him to keep it standing against the massively underwhelming Michailidis, and it’s not even remotely a contest on the feet. This is arguably the best Middleweight striker in the world against a guy who failed to impress last time out against a man in K.B. Bhullar, who landed five head strikes in 15 minutes.

It’s a testament to Garry’s skills that he’s the largest favorite on the card despite this being his first UFC appearance. His crisp jab, good footwork and quality gas tank look perfectly suited to defusing Williams, who relies on raw pressure to make up for a lack of technical striking ability. Garry proved in his last fight that he could play keep-away all night and I fully expect him to do the same here.

Gian Villante could easily be 1-7 in his last eight fights, got torn apart by a former Middleweight in Jake Collier last time out, and previously gassed so badly he tapped to a nonexistent choke while in top position. I don’t understand why he’d be favored over anyone in the Heavyweight division at this point. Chris Barnett is faster, more technical and has far more experience against big men, making him worth an investment.

I was peeved when T.J. Laramie pulled out of his fight with Baghdasaryan, as he was sitting at more than +200 despite being far and away the best wrestler Baghdasaryan has ever faced. Bruno Souza, by contrast, will give “The Gun” the striking battle he craves and most likely get starched for it. Even if I’m not 100 percent sold on Baghdasaryan yet, he’s a good parlay stuffer.

Osbourne’s 1-2 Octagon run may not inspire much confidence, but it’s worth remembering that those losses came against extremely dangerous customers in Brian Keller and Manel Kape. He’s more than skilled enough to knockout C.J. Vergara, who was dropped twice and nearly stopped by two-time Contender Series washout Jacob Silva earlier this year. Though Vergara does pack some pop, odds are that Osbourne blows him away with a straight left down the pipe before long.

UFC 268 Odds For The Main Card:

Kamaru Usman (-290) vs. Colby Covington (+245)
Zhang Weili (-115) vs. Rose Namajunas (-105)
Justin Gaethje (-220) vs. Michael Chandler (+180)
Shane Burgos (-185) vs. Billy Quarantillo (+160)
Marlon Vera (-175) vs. Frankie Edgar (+155)

Thoughts: Kamaru Usman, Justin Gaethje and Shane Burgos round out this week’s picks.

The scary thing about Usman is that he’s already a markedly better fighter than when he first stopped Covington. Though still far from flawless, his striking has improved to the point where he can reliably unleash the terrifying power he’s long possessed, but struggled to utilize. As far as Covington, beating what’s left of Tyron Woodley is far from enough to convince me that he’s made the sorts of adjustments necessary to topple “The Nigerian Nightmare.”

In short, it will be 2-0 for the champ when the dust settles.

Even putting my long-standing fondness of Gaethje to the side, there’s a lot going his way. He’s got a significant edge in durability over Chandler and has recently proven himself a highly capable counter-puncher, which is bad news for someone who relies more on horsepower than unpredictability. With Gaethje’s wrestling skills taking Chandler’s takedowns out of the equation, it’s only a matter of time before “Iron” gets dented again.

I love watching Quarantillo fight, as I imagine most violence aficionados do. That said, Burgos is all wrong for him. “Billy Q” uses his bottomless gas tank to wear down opponents, then take over once fatigue has sapped their technical striking advantages. Not only is Burgos more than capable of keeping pace with Quarantillo, but he’s also the much harder and more technically-skilled boxer. So long as the egregious punishment he took against Josh Emmett and Edson Barboza loss didn’t permanently break Burgos’ chin, I like him to come out on top in a slugfest.

UFC 268 Best Bets:

• Parlay — Ian Garry and Chris Barnett: Bet $150 to make $223.50
• Parlay — Alex Pereira and Justin Gaethje: Bet $150 to make $156
• Parlay — Melsik Baghdasaryan and Shane Burgos: Bet $150 to make $157.50
• Parlay — Ode Osbourne and Kamaru Usman: Bet $150 to make $171

UFC 268 features two title fights, ultra-violent contenders and some quality newcomers, all of which make for a hell of a PPV. See you Saturday, Maniacs.

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 268 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET, then the remaining undercard balance on ESPNEWS/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET, before the PPV main card start time at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV.

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 268: “Usman vs. Covington 2” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.

Initial (Boosted) Investment For 2021: $600
Current Total For 2021: $1,836.93

When Bobby Green Steps Into The Octagon In Madison Square Garden On November 6 He Has A Particular Goal In Mind.

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When Bobby Green Steps Into The Octagon In Madison Square Garden On November 6 He Has A Particular Goal In Mind.

Read the Full Article Here

Get the lowdown on the main card fights of UFC 268, featuring a highly anticipated lightweight showdown between recent title challengers Justin Gaethje and Michael Chandler.

Am I the only one wondering why the UFC didn’t book Justin Gaethje and Michael Chandler for a five-round contest? The most recent lightweight title challengers who came out on the short end of the stick, it can’t be said they aren’t main event caliber fighters. Some may say they don’t believe the fight will go five rounds, but we watch fights because we don’t know how things are going to play out. There have been plenty of fights that went three rounds that I would have loved to see go two more rounds… and I have a hard time believing Gaethje-Chandler wouldn’t be one of those. I get the feeling I wouldn’t mind seeing Shane Burgos and Billy Quarantillo potentially go five rounds either, but I’m not foolish enough to believe they would have enough sway to make that happen. Regardless, the main card non-title fights for UFC 268 are well worth dropping the PPV price for… and that’s not including the title fights.

For my prelims preview, click here.

Justin Gaethje vs. Michael Chandler, Lightweight

It could be argued Gaethje is the greatest action fighter in the history of MMA. In a feat that may never be replicated, Gaethje secured a Performance Bonus in his first seven UFC fights, that streak being snapped in his loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov. Despite that, he still averages more than one bonus per fight given the multitude of times he has collected multiple bonuses. Choose your Gaethje highlight. Maybe this one. Or this one. This one is good too. There’s good reason why I wanted to see this fight go five rounds….

Chandler doesn’t have quite the same reputation as Gaethje – no one does – but he’s been known to turn in some entertaining scraps himself, everyone remembering his all-time classic against Eddie Alvarez in 2011. Of course, that fight was a decade ago and Chandler has been in several battles in that time. Thus, Chandler’s durability has seemingly declined significantly since that point.

In order to combat his increasingly fragile chin, Chandler has taken a far more cautious approach than he used to. Even though he was finished by Charles Oliveira, his first two UFC fights illustrate his approach on the feet perfectly. While he still tends to get in his opponent’s face with pressure, he’s selective with the punches he throws while threatening with takedowns. When those punches land, they land with enough force that his opposition tends to have a very adverse reaction to them, often being put on their ass. If that’s the case, his killer instinct has been refined to the point that surviving his onslaught is no small feat.

It’s hard to believe Chandler can’t find success with this approach. Gaethje isn’t the reckless fiend he was upon his UFC entry, but he’s still no defensive savant. For all the talk of Gaethje being a great wrestler, he still hasn’t completed a takedown in his UFC run while being taken down by the likes of Eddie Alvarez and Michael Johnson. If those two can take Gaethje to the mat, why not Chandler? Chandler doesn’t get enough credit for his ability to keep opponents down. Brent Primus isn’t on the level of Gaethje, but he is a talented ground fighter and Chandler shut him down with a ground based approach.

If this fight was five rounds, I’d be picking Gaethje in a heartbeat. I struggle to see Chandler finishing Gaethje with strikes as it’s typically attrition that wears on the former WSOF champion and I don’t think Chandler can put that type of pace on Gaethje without exposing his own chin to Gaethje. But can I see Chandler potentially grinding out two rounds out of three? Plausible, but I’d say still unlikely. Gaethje has improved his fight IQ since his losses to Alvarez and Dustin Poirier, tightening up his striking technique in the process. Gaethje can still get reckless, but I’d still be willing to bet he’s more likely to land a clean shot than Chandler. Gaethje via KO of RD1

Shane Burgos vs. Billy Quarantillo, Featherweight

If this fight wasn’t on the same card as Gaethje and Chandler, it would be highlighted far more. The better known quantity of the two is Burgos. With four FOTN bonuses in nine UFC fights – a ratio of nearly half his fights – he’s established himself as one of the most consistent action fighters on the roster. Burgos established a reputation of being willing to take a shot in order to deliver one or two and it paid off for him as he was making his way up the UFC ladder. As he has been facing tougher competition in recent fights, he’s been the one taking one or two shots to land his one… and that competition has also been hitting harder. Thus, while no one will ever question the toughness of Burgos, his durability has been showing some major cracks.

Nevertheless, it’s hard to believe Burgos will be changing things up as he’s expected to have a significant advantage standing against Quarantillo. Quarantillo wasted little time establishing himself as one of the better action fighters in a division full of them. Though he’s primarily known for his ground work, Quarantillo has proven he can more than hold his own on the feet against several fighters who were thought to be the more skilled strikers in their contests. Despite that, most would agree Burgos is the most dangerous striker he’s faced thus far in his UFC run.

Quarantillo isn’t known for his wrestling, but he’s smart and crafty, utilizing trips and timing to do what his mediocre athleticism and physicality can’t accomplish for him. Once the fight does hit the mat, Quarantillo’s ability to chain submissions together keeps things exciting. His supreme conditioning has made him a better scrambler than expected too. However, will he be able to get Burgos to the mat? Given Burgos habit for throwing down, most tend to forget he’s got a more than adequate ground game in addition to being a huge pain in the ass to take down.

I’m not as sold on this fight as I would have been a year ago. Burgos being stopped by Edson Barboza last May was one of the weirdest stoppages I’ve ever seen and leaves me wondering about the long-term durability of Burgos. Quarantillo doesn’t hit nearly as hard as Barboza, but damage accumulates and it tends to take less to put away a fighter the deeper their career goes. Despite that concern, I’m still picking Burgos. He may not have Conor McGregor-like power, but there’s plenty of pop in his punches. However, it’s Burgos pace that is his best weapon. While Quarantillo is well conditioned, he was tired by the end of his fight with Gavin Tucker as the Canadian expertly mixed in takedowns and body shots with his attack. That would be the safest route to victory for Burgos, but I’d probably still pick him even if he elects to just trade fisticuffs with Quarantillo. Burgos via decision

Frankie Edgar vs. Marlon Vera, Bantamweight

There’s no denying Edgar is a legend in the sport of MMA. Not only did he hold the lightweight title for nearly two years, he arguably the second-best featherweight in the world for about a half a decade. Some would say he’s finally plying his trade at the weight class he should have been fighting at from the beginning at bantamweight. The problem is, as what usually happens when a fighter is deemed a legend, he’s been fighting for so long that he’s on the clear backside of his career at the age of 40.

In his bantamweight debut, Edgar showed he still has one of the deepest gas tanks of any fighter in the sport, despite actually having a serious weight cut for the first time in his career. He showed he’s still got a solid wrestling game as well and even if his speed isn’t what it was in his prime, it’s still passable despite fighting smaller and quicker opponents. However, his sophomore bantamweight contest also shed further light on an issue many had already questioned: his durability. Given the knee Cory Sandhagen landed on him would have stopped an elephant, it’s fair to argue Edgar durability hasn’t completely evaporated, but to go 13 years without being stopped in a fight to having that happen three times in three years – and each time in the first round – makes it difficult to maintain that position.

Vera might have that issue someday, but for now, he appears to be as indestructible as Edgar was in his prime. It’s hard to think of anyone who has been able to utilize that to better effect than Vera as he has endured a lot of punishment in several contests only to find a heat seeking punch or a brutal head kick that puts his opponent away. To his credit, Vera has improved his ability to win rounds, in part because he’s doing a better job of starting out of the gate. Of course, not consistently backing himself into the cage has helped too. The problem is, unless Edgar’s speed has declined immeasurably, he’s unlikely to outpoint Edgar. Thus, Vera’s going to need a finish… and Edgar’s decline in durability makes that a distinct possibility.

Edgar has never been submitted and hasn’t been taken down since his first fight with Benson Henderson nearly a decade ago. Thus, while Vera’s ground game is underrated, it doesn’t look like that will be a path to victory for the native of Ecuador. Edgar’s in and out movement doesn’t appear to be as difficult to time as it once was and that was never as difficult to deal with as many made it out to be. I can see Edgar securing a decision with several takedowns and his darting offense, but Edgar seems to get hurt in just about every fight he’s been in over the last several years. Thus, I see Vera catching him at some point. Vera via TKO of RD2

Look At The UFC’s Best Moments From The World’s Most Famous Arena:

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