With UFC 137 in the books and the spookiest day of the year now upon us, let’s all grab a mini-Snickers and sort through the biggest winners, losers, and everything in between from Saturday night’s action in Las Vegas.
Biggest Winner: Nick Diaz
I remember around this time last year, before Diaz fought KJ Noons, watching him put on the boxing gloves and headgear in his gym in Lodi, Calif., and walk down one sparring partner after another. In the beginning, most of them did pretty well against him. They landed some punches, circled away, and you could see their confidence growing. But Diaz never slowed down, never stopped coming, and eventually he’d end up backing every single one of them against the fence and digging into their ribs with hooks that you could hear over the constant stream of Tupac songs that blared from the stereo. One by one, he wore them down with sheer pace and pressure until they quit, both mentally and physically.
Diaz performed the exact same act of will against Penn on Saturday night, and it was just as effective. He started slowly and gradually cranked up the volume, confident that his opponent would wilt before he would. He took it and he dished it out, and by the end of three rounds there was no doubt that he was the better fighter. Of course, as soon as the fight was over, he went back to being the bizarre, mercurial person we’ve gotten to know (and yet not know) over the last several years. Even when things had gone well for him, he remained unhappy. Even when he was offered the title shot he’d recently squandered, he remained utterly convinced of his own status as the permanent victim. What can you do with a guy like that? Put him up against the champ, I suppose. Let him do what he does best, which is fight, and hope the rest of us can tolerate what he does worst, which is just about everything else.
Biggest Loser: B.J. Penn
The nicest thing you can say about Penn’s performance is that he didn’t quit. Even though he didn’t look thrilled about it, he got up off the stool for round three and took his medicine for five more minutes. Other than that, the bright spots were few and they dimmed in a hurry. I can understand why Penn, a nearly 33-year-old former champ, thinks it would be better to hang it up than continue on as some novelty act or gatekeeper, but beware of any retirement announcement that comes in the emotional moments just after a bad beating. This is the same Penn who licked blood off his gloves and promised death to future opponents while jacked up on post-fight adrenaline. If those were the highs, this could simply be the low. Calling it quits in the cage immediately after a loss is a little like breaking up during an argument. The chances of it sticking are inversely proportional to how long you’ve been together. Six months? Sure, one bad argument might do it. But Penn and MMA have had a lengthy, sometimes rocky relationship. Seems unlikely that they won’t try to patch things up at least once or twice.
Hardest Working Man in the Fight Biz: Donald Cerrone
His submission of Dennis Siver was his sixth straight win and his fourth of 2011. Apparently he’s not content with that, because he immediately turned around and lobbied for another fight before the end of the year, which it now looks like he’ll get against Nate Diaz at UFC 141 in December. I’m not sure if Cerrone is putting title shots and other typical concerns out of his mind because he’s savvy enough to see the situation for what it is in the crowded lightweight division, or if he’s driven only by the reckless pursuit of a paycheck. Either way, he’s at his best when he’s busiest, and 2011 is turning out to be a banner year for his career and his bank account. After all the paper he’s stacked via purses and bonuses, this is one year when you really want to be on “Cowboy’s” Christmas list.
Most Impressive in Defeat: Eliot Marshall Brandon Vera came into the fight with Marshall as a 5-1 favorite, then nearly got his head knocked off and his arm snapped in half, but still somehow emerged with the decision victory. It goes down as a loss for Marshall at a time when he can’t afford it, but will the UFC brass see the process rather than the result? It might not have been a spectacular fight, but for Marshall it was clearly a step in the right direction. It would be a shame for the UFC to cut him after a third round like that, which just might have been the single best round of his UFC career. If he sticks to his promise to retire after another UFC release, that’s the kind of finish that could keep a man up at night for years to come. If only he’d had just a few more seconds. If only he’d landed one or two more punches. You can play that game for a long time, particularly if it cost you your career.
Least Impressive in Victory: Hatsu Hioki
He did just enough to get the decision over George Roop, but not much more. At least Hioki started off his stay in the UFC with a win, which is more than you can say for a lot of his compatriots. Though if that’s the best you can do against a mid-level featherweight like Roop, how far can you really go in this organization? Maybe Hioki struggled with nerves, and maybe Roop’s size and strength gave him more problems than he expected. I don’t know. What I do know is that the Hioki we saw on Saturday looked like just another fighter, not some big name acquisition. You hate to judge a guy too harshly on the basis of one performance, so let’s just say that Hioki still has plenty of work to do to make a name for himself on this side of the Pacific.
Let’s Hope We’ve Seen the Last Of: Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic
He acquitted himself well in what he’d have us believe was the final fight of his career. He took some of Roy Nelson’s best shots and even fired off a few of his own (though with that beard he probably had to guess at the location of Nelson’s chin). Even if he didn’t have enough to pull out the win, he still did better than most of us expected and ended on a classy, dignified note in his post-fight remarks. Unlike Penn, his retirement declaration didn’t seem driven by emotion. It was clearly something he’d given a lot of thought to before the fight, and he did what he said he’d do if he came up short. The question is, will he disappear from the fight game entirely, or just the UFC? Cro Cop wouldn’t be the first man to have a hard time turning down an easy buck from some small-time promoter looking to sell what’s left of his name. You couldn’t exactly blame him if he gave in to a tempting offer from M-1 Global or ProElite somewhere down the line, and he clearly still has at least a little bit of gas left in the tank. Still, no matter how many times you see that particular drama playing out with an aging fighter, it never gets any easier to watch. For the sake of his legacy and his health, let’s hope Cro Cop really does know when it’s time.
Most Disappointing: Cheick Kongo vs. Matt Mitrione
In retrospect, it seems silly. This was the co-main event? The UFC seemed to be banking on some heavyweight fireworks to help out a flagging fight card after the injury to GSP, but what it got instead resembled a staring match more than a slugfest. If you could knock a man out just with crazy eyes and feints, Mitrione would be the heavyweight champ by now. But once Kongo finally realized that the “Meathead” blitz wasn’t coming, he settled down and managed to wrestle his way to a decision win. It was a fight both men might rather forget, albeit for different reasons. Kongo looked tentative and overly defensive in his first fight since the comeback win over Pat Barry. Mitrione never got started at all, and showed his inexperience on the mat in the final frame. In the end, it was a bummer of a fight that likely reminded the UFC why these two aren’t quite ready for the top of a pay-per-view card just yet. Meanwhile, Donald Cerrone will just be over here, kicking people in the head on Spike TV for free.
Begging for His Walking Papers: Tyson Griffin
He missed weight (by a lot), looked flat and uninspired from the opening bell, and got himself knocked out in a little under three minutes for his fourth loss in five fights. I know he said he was under the weather coming into this fight, but I don’t see how Griffin doesn’t get cut after this terrible weekend. After he missed weight, he was on Twitter basically shrugging his virtual shoulders and explaining that he had “no excuses.” Okay, so he’s taking responsibility for his mistakes. That’s a good sign, right? Then he gets knocked out and he’s back on there telling his followers about his after-party at the Luxor. I’m not saying he needs to post pictures of himself crying into an appletini at Cathouse, but if he’s not feeling a sense of desperation about his career now, what’s it going to take?
Best Quick Change: Roy Nelson
He showed up to fight looking like a roadie for Foghat, then showed up to the post-fight press conference looking like a henchman from a James Bond movie. That’s versatility, right there. Okay, so maybe that, plus his current one-fight win streak, isn’t enough to get him that title shot he asked for, but at least it keeps him in the conversation at heavyweight. The guy’s a character, and he can fight a little bit. Now his physique is even moving in the right direction, though there’s still work to be done in that department before he appears in an Under Armour ad alongside GSP.
With UFC 137 in the books and the spookiest day of the year now upon us, let’s all grab a mini-Snickers and sort through the biggest winners, losers, and everything in between from Saturday night’s action in Las Vegas.
Biggest Winner: Nick Diaz
I remember around this time last year, before Diaz fought KJ Noons, watching him put on the boxing gloves and headgear in his gym in Lodi, Calif., and walk down one sparring partner after another. In the beginning, most of them did pretty well against him. They landed some punches, circled away, and you could see their confidence growing. But Diaz never slowed down, never stopped coming, and eventually he’d end up backing every single one of them against the fence and digging into their ribs with hooks that you could hear over the constant stream of Tupac songs that blared from the stereo. One by one, he wore them down with sheer pace and pressure until they quit, both mentally and physically.
Diaz performed the exact same act of will against Penn on Saturday night, and it was just as effective. He started slowly and gradually cranked up the volume, confident that his opponent would wilt before he would. He took it and he dished it out, and by the end of three rounds there was no doubt that he was the better fighter. Of course, as soon as the fight was over, he went back to being the bizarre, mercurial person we’ve gotten to know (and yet not know) over the last several years. Even when things had gone well for him, he remained unhappy. Even when he was offered the title shot he’d recently squandered, he remained utterly convinced of his own status as the permanent victim. What can you do with a guy like that? Put him up against the champ, I suppose. Let him do what he does best, which is fight, and hope the rest of us can tolerate what he does worst, which is just about everything else.
Biggest Loser: B.J. Penn
The nicest thing you can say about Penn’s performance is that he didn’t quit. Even though he didn’t look thrilled about it, he got up off the stool for round three and took his medicine for five more minutes. Other than that, the bright spots were few and they dimmed in a hurry. I can understand why Penn, a nearly 33-year-old former champ, thinks it would be better to hang it up than continue on as some novelty act or gatekeeper, but beware of any retirement announcement that comes in the emotional moments just after a bad beating. This is the same Penn who licked blood off his gloves and promised death to future opponents while jacked up on post-fight adrenaline. If those were the highs, this could simply be the low. Calling it quits in the cage immediately after a loss is a little like breaking up during an argument. The chances of it sticking are inversely proportional to how long you’ve been together. Six months? Sure, one bad argument might do it. But Penn and MMA have had a lengthy, sometimes rocky relationship. Seems unlikely that they won’t try to patch things up at least once or twice.
Hardest Working Man in the Fight Biz: Donald Cerrone
His submission of Dennis Siver was his sixth straight win and his fourth of 2011. Apparently he’s not content with that, because he immediately turned around and lobbied for another fight before the end of the year, which it now looks like he’ll get against Nate Diaz at UFC 141 in December. I’m not sure if Cerrone is putting title shots and other typical concerns out of his mind because he’s savvy enough to see the situation for what it is in the crowded lightweight division, or if he’s driven only by the reckless pursuit of a paycheck. Either way, he’s at his best when he’s busiest, and 2011 is turning out to be a banner year for his career and his bank account. After all the paper he’s stacked via purses and bonuses, this is one year when you really want to be on “Cowboy’s” Christmas list.
Most Impressive in Defeat: Eliot Marshall Brandon Vera came into the fight with Marshall as a 5-1 favorite, then nearly got his head knocked off and his arm snapped in half, but still somehow emerged with the decision victory. It goes down as a loss for Marshall at a time when he can’t afford it, but will the UFC brass see the process rather than the result? It might not have been a spectacular fight, but for Marshall it was clearly a step in the right direction. It would be a shame for the UFC to cut him after a third round like that, which just might have been the single best round of his UFC career. If he sticks to his promise to retire after another UFC release, that’s the kind of finish that could keep a man up at night for years to come. If only he’d had just a few more seconds. If only he’d landed one or two more punches. You can play that game for a long time, particularly if it cost you your career.
Least Impressive in Victory: Hatsu Hioki
He did just enough to get the decision over George Roop, but not much more. At least Hioki started off his stay in the UFC with a win, which is more than you can say for a lot of his compatriots. Though if that’s the best you can do against a mid-level featherweight like Roop, how far can you really go in this organization? Maybe Hioki struggled with nerves, and maybe Roop’s size and strength gave him more problems than he expected. I don’t know. What I do know is that the Hioki we saw on Saturday looked like just another fighter, not some big name acquisition. You hate to judge a guy too harshly on the basis of one performance, so let’s just say that Hioki still has plenty of work to do to make a name for himself on this side of the Pacific.
Let’s Hope We’ve Seen the Last Of: Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic
He acquitted himself well in what he’d have us believe was the final fight of his career. He took some of Roy Nelson’s best shots and even fired off a few of his own (though with that beard he probably had to guess at the location of Nelson’s chin). Even if he didn’t have enough to pull out the win, he still did better than most of us expected and ended on a classy, dignified note in his post-fight remarks. Unlike Penn, his retirement declaration didn’t seem driven by emotion. It was clearly something he’d given a lot of thought to before the fight, and he did what he said he’d do if he came up short. The question is, will he disappear from the fight game entirely, or just the UFC? Cro Cop wouldn’t be the first man to have a hard time turning down an easy buck from some small-time promoter looking to sell what’s left of his name. You couldn’t exactly blame him if he gave in to a tempting offer from M-1 Global or ProElite somewhere down the line, and he clearly still has at least a little bit of gas left in the tank. Still, no matter how many times you see that particular drama playing out with an aging fighter, it never gets any easier to watch. For the sake of his legacy and his health, let’s hope Cro Cop really does know when it’s time.
Most Disappointing: Cheick Kongo vs. Matt Mitrione
In retrospect, it seems silly. This was the co-main event? The UFC seemed to be banking on some heavyweight fireworks to help out a flagging fight card after the injury to GSP, but what it got instead resembled a staring match more than a slugfest. If you could knock a man out just with crazy eyes and feints, Mitrione would be the heavyweight champ by now. But once Kongo finally realized that the “Meathead” blitz wasn’t coming, he settled down and managed to wrestle his way to a decision win. It was a fight both men might rather forget, albeit for different reasons. Kongo looked tentative and overly defensive in his first fight since the comeback win over Pat Barry. Mitrione never got started at all, and showed his inexperience on the mat in the final frame. In the end, it was a bummer of a fight that likely reminded the UFC why these two aren’t quite ready for the top of a pay-per-view card just yet. Meanwhile, Donald Cerrone will just be over here, kicking people in the head on Spike TV for free.
Begging for His Walking Papers: Tyson Griffin
He missed weight (by a lot), looked flat and uninspired from the opening bell, and got himself knocked out in a little under three minutes for his fourth loss in five fights. I know he said he was under the weather coming into this fight, but I don’t see how Griffin doesn’t get cut after this terrible weekend. After he missed weight, he was on Twitter basically shrugging his virtual shoulders and explaining that he had “no excuses.” Okay, so he’s taking responsibility for his mistakes. That’s a good sign, right? Then he gets knocked out and he’s back on there telling his followers about his after-party at the Luxor. I’m not saying he needs to post pictures of himself crying into an appletini at Cathouse, but if he’s not feeling a sense of desperation about his career now, what’s it going to take?
Best Quick Change: Roy Nelson
He showed up to fight looking like a roadie for Foghat, then showed up to the post-fight press conference looking like a henchman from a James Bond movie. That’s versatility, right there. Okay, so maybe that, plus his current one-fight win streak, isn’t enough to get him that title shot he asked for, but at least it keeps him in the conversation at heavyweight. The guy’s a character, and he can fight a little bit. Now his physique is even moving in the right direction, though there’s still work to be done in that department before he appears in an Under Armour ad alongside GSP.
The official word from Dana White was that welterweight champion Georges St-Pierre was enraged by Nick Diaz‘s post-fight comments at UFC 137, but could it be that GSP needs Diaz now even more than Diaz needs GSP? The MMA Wrap-Up examines the issue, and all it will cost you is several minutes of your life that you can never get back.
The official word from Dana White was that welterweight champion Georges St-Pierre was enraged by Nick Diaz‘s post-fight comments at UFC 137, but could it be that GSP needs Diaz now even more than Diaz needs GSP? The MMA Wrap-Up examines the issue, and all it will cost you is several minutes of your life that you can never get back.
Filed under: UFCLast time on Fighter vs. Writer, I edged out “King” Mo Lawal thanks to my prodigious prognosticating abilities. It also helped that Lawal had a little too much faith in Kenny Florian, whereas I, ever the hard-hearted realist, bet on his…
Last time on Fighter vs. Writer, I edged out “King” Mo Lawal thanks to my prodigious prognosticating abilities. It also helped that Lawal had a little too much faith in Kenny Florian, whereas I, ever the hard-hearted realist, bet on his depressing collapse.
Without further delay, let’s dig into the main card of UFC 137 and make our bold predictions for tonight’s action.
B.J. Penn vs. Nick Diaz
Schaub: Penn via decision. “If it’s a motivated B.J., it’s a different fight. Then there’s only one or two guys in the world who can beat him. I think this is the Fight of the Night, for sure.” Fowlkes: Diaz via decision. For all his flaws outside the cage, Diaz is still one hell of a tough fighter inside of it. And unlike Penn, you always know he’ll show up motivated, in shape, and ready to go until the final bell. His constant pressure and non-stop motor will make the difference down the stretch.
Schaub: Mitrione via TKO. “I’ll take my guy Mitrione in this one. I think he’s a little too athletic for Kongo. He’s going to see that left hand. TKO, second round.” Fowlkes: Mitrione via TKO. I concur. Mitrione is too athletic and too powerful, while Kongo has too few weapons that he deploys too ineffectively. If Kongo makes it the full three rounds, I’ll be mildly surprised.
Mirko Filipovic vs. Roy Nelson
Schaub: No pick. “This is a tough fight because I know both guys. I hear Roy’s lost weight and he might be a tough guy to beat at that weight. But Cro Cop sounds like he found the fire. Man, I’ve got to stay neutral. I’m a huge Cro Cop fan so I’m always pulling for him, but I can’t give you a decision.” Fowlkes: Nelson via KO. Schaub, by refusing to make a pick, is putting his faith in either a draw or a no contest. That’s nice if you feel the need to stay neutral and not hurt anyone’s feelings. I, however, feel no such need. I predict Cro Cop gets knocked out one last time, and I predict many of us feel the urge to get up and go cry in the shower after it’s all over.
Scott Jorgensen vs. Jeff Curran
Schaub: Jorgensen via TKO. Schaub, much like the oddsmakers who now have Jorgensen as high as a 5-1 favorite, didn’t seem to think this was a very difficult decision. Fowlkes: Jorgensen via TKO. It’s a little sad that Curran is finally getting a shot in the UFC only now, when his body’s been beat up and broken down. Jorgensen is a nightmare of a match-up for him, so that doesn’t help either.
Hatsu Hioki vs. George Roop
Schaub: Roop via TKO. “Roop’s big. I think his size is going to be tough for Hioki to handle, so I’m taking him.” Fowlkes: Hioki via decision. I still think Roop might be the best underdog pick on the card, but in a straight-up pick I’ll go with Hioki. Surely, one of these Japanese transplants has to prove himself worthy of the hype, right? Guys? Right?
Filed under: UFCQuestions, concerns, comments, and even a little statistical analysis, sort of: UFC 137 gives us a chance to sort through it all, in no particular order. I don’t know about you, but to me it sounds like a perfect way to while away the h…
Questions, concerns, comments, and even a little statistical analysis, sort of: UFC 137 gives us a chance to sort through it all, in no particular order. I don’t know about you, but to me it sounds like a perfect way to while away the hours on a Friday.
I. Has Nick Diaz ever been happy or content with any situation, ever? I don’t want to call the guy a complainer, but…no, he’s a complainer. It’s always something with Diaz. Either he’s not making enough money or he’s being forced into a fight he doesn’t want or he wishes he’d taken that boxing contract instead. It makes you wonder, has he ever felt like he got what he wanted in this business — in this life! — even once? Most fighters I know go to great lengths to avoid negative thinking, but Diaz seems to thrive on it. It’s almost as if the thing motivating him to work so hard in the gym is his belief that the deck is stacked against him. As if he has to be better than everyone else, because the world wants to see him fail. In reality, it’s the other way around. Plenty of people want to see Diaz succeed. That’s why they keep giving him one opportunity after another, even when he torches olive branches as quickly as they are extended. But hey, whatever works. If, in order to succeed, Diaz needs to feel like he is constantly mired in misery thanks to a universe looking to cheat and crush him at every turn, then so be it. You’d just like to see the guy enjoying the ride a little more while he’s on it, because it won’t last forever.
II. Age difference, in months, between Mirko Filipovic and Roy Nelson: 27. Believe it or not, “Cro Cop” is just a shade over two years older than Nelson, though you’d swear he had a decade on him. In fighter years, maybe he does. In addition to his kickboxing career, Filipovic is a veteran of nearly 40 pro MMA bouts, while Nelson has about half that many. Nelson also benefitted from fighting the Bo Cantrells and Vince Luceros of the world early in his career, while Cro Cop came up in the Pride heavyweight division back when it was stocked with household names. Still, when you think about this fight it seems like a contest between the old school and the (at least somewhat) new. It doesn’t seem like a fight between two dudes who could have, theoretically at least, played on the same high school basketball team.
III. How much did his knockout of Pat Barry really help Cheick Kongo’s confidence? Without a doubt, it was one of the greatest comebacks in MMA history, but did you see his face afterward? He looked like a man who had just woken up from a terrible nightmare, and while relieved to find out it wasn’t real, was still not totally convinced that there were no monsters under the bed. That’s as close as you can come to getting knocked out and still win. It makes for an exciting finish, but it’s the kind of excitement most fighters would like to avoid. When you get close enough to the edge to feel your wheels slipping, the temptation to slow down and play it safe after that can sometimes be overwhelming.
IV. Maybe, whether he knows it or not, Nick Diaz is exactly what B.J. Penn needs right now. The last time we saw a truly terrifying Penn was when he got into the cage against Matt Hughes for the third time, muttering to himself like a crazy man at the bus stop. Jon Fitch failed to elicit such a reaction in him (or in UFC fans generally), but how about Diaz, who usually has some choice words for his opponent’s mother once the fight gets started? At this point in his career, maybe Penn needs an opponent who will throw his hands in the air like he just doesn’t care and taunt his family like they’re from separate clans of feuding hill people. If that doesn’t help Penn find the old fire, nothing will.
V. Dennis Siver vs. Donald Cerrone could be the best Spike TV prelim fight in ages, and just when the UFC needs it the most. The Pettis-Stephens and Maia-Santiago bouts on the UFC 136 prelims probably didn’t sell many pay-per-views. In fact, they might have even convinced some fans to turn off the TV and go see a movie instead. But the Siver-Cerrone fight looks like a can’t-miss scrap, at least on paper, and this card could sure use the boost. Siver’s won four straight, while Cerrone’s notched five in a row. They both like to stand and mix it up, and Siver’s Russo-German stoicism is perhaps the best counterweight to Cerrone’s swaggering redneck routine. If this fight turns out to be even half as good as I’m expecting, it won’t even matter that the night’s other televised prelim — Tyson Griffin vs. Bart Palaszewski — seems like the perfect opportunity to get up and prepare some snacks.
VI. Combined record of UFC 137’s curtain-jerking newcomers: 13-0. Neither Dustin Jacoby nor Clifford Starks has lost a professional MMA bout as of yet. Just be advised that, when it comes to guys coming up off local shows, not all undefeated records are created equally.
VII. Now that Jeff Curran is finally here, where can he go? It took a long time for the “Big Frog” to finally make his UFC debut. But look around at the UFC’s bantamweight division right now and you’ll see a list of guys who already hold wins over him. Joe Benavidez, Takeya Mizugaki, Urijah Faber, “Kid” Yamamoto — it’s almost as if beating Curran is a condition of getting your UFC bantamweight merit badge. I don’t mean to be hard on Curran, who’s a great guy and a legend of the sport, but it does make me think that maybe this chance has come too late in his career. Going up against a grinder like Scott Jorgensen, that doesn’t help matters much.
VIII. It’s not hard to see what the UFC brass is thinking with the Brandon Vera-Eliot Marshall match-up. They cut Vera and more or less had to bring back when it was revealed that the last man to beat him was, in Vera’s words, a “juice monkey.” Marshall got cut and then brought back when they needed a warm body to throw in against Luiz Cane on short notice, and his willingness to be that body earned him the tiniest bit of slack, resulting in this fight. The UFC doesn’t seem interested in keeping both of them around for long, so why not make them fight each other for the last spot on the lifeboat? The winner gets to stick around and survive on rain water and fish guts, hoping for an unlikely rescue. The loser gets thrown overboard, but at least he knows where he stands…or doesn’t. You have to admit, there’s a certain cruel, yet satisfying economy to it all.
IX. Can Hatsu Hioki avoid the fate of other Japanese transplants to the UFC? One after another, they’ve come on a wave of hype only to dissipate quickly on rocky shores. From Takanori Gomi to “Kid” Yamamoto, several Japanese fighters have arrived only to appear as if they were much better when we were viewing them from across the Pacific. The big difference is that Hioki seems much closer to his prime, and sure, a UFC debut against George Roop isn’t exactly the same as one against Kenny Florian. It’s a slightly gentler introduction to life in the UFC than the one some of his countrymen have received. If Hioki can’t make the most of it, things aren’t likely to get much easier from here on out.
Filed under: UFCUFC 137 is one of those events where you really wish oddsmakers would offer some fun prop bets. For example, odds that B.J. Penn will lick someone’s blood off his gloves? (+375). Odds Roy Nelson will smack his somewhat diminished belly …
UFC 137 is one of those events where you really wish oddsmakers would offer some fun prop bets. For example, odds that B.J. Penn will lick someone’s blood off his gloves? (+375). Odds Roy Nelson will smack his somewhat diminished belly on camera? (+125). Odds Nick Diaz will insist on wearing jeans and work boots to the weigh-ins, and make us all wait as he puts them back on before the staredown? (-700).
Alas, we’ll just have to make do with the odds on the fights themselves. Fortunately, there’s plenty of material here to sort through.
It was a borderline brilliant move by Cesar Gracie to try and get this changed to a five-round fight. As we’ve seen in the past, Penn is not always the same person at the end of round three that he is in the beginning of round one, and an extra two frames to take advantage of that would have helped the tireless Diaz immensely. But Penn’s no dummy. He played that attempt off with all the veteran savvy you’d expect, and his chances of winning went up in the process. That is, if the right B.J. Penn shows up, and if Diaz consents to let him have the kind of fight he wants.
Therein lies the problem for both those guys. Penn is inconsistent, while Diaz is almost comically hard-headed. Penn might, at any given point, look up at the clock and sigh like a teenager waiting out the last few minutes of Geometry class. Diaz might be able to take advantage of that if he were Jon Fitch of Georges St-Pierre, but he’s not. He just wants to scrap, and he’ll do so wherever Penn decides to take the fight. If Penn wants to box, they’ll box. If he wants to grapple, that’s fine too. It’s hard to wear a guy out when you let him decide where and how to fight. And if you can’t tire Penn out, you’re giving up the most reliable way of beating him. That could still work…if you’re the better all-around fighter. And if three rounds is enough time for you to prove it. My pick: Diaz. The odds here don’t give us much of a push in either direction. With Penn, you wonder how hard he’s trained and how much he wants it. With Diaz, you never do. In a fight this close, that’s enough for me.
If this were a Rick Rude-style posedown, Mitrione would be in big trouble. Kongo looks the part of a terrifying heavyweight, and if you didn’t know better you might be forgiven for assuming that he was the superior athlete in this match-up. Big mistake. Don’t get me wrong, Kongo can do a few things well. He just can’t do enough things and he can’t do them well enough. Mitrione, on the other hand, is an agile, athletic big man who improves so much between each fight that it’s almost not worth watching film of his last few bouts to prepare for his next one. On paper, this should be Mitrione’s fight all the way. Instead of betting on who will win, a more interesting wager might be how many times Kongo will manage to knee him in the groin. I’ll set the over/under at two, and let you go from there. My pick: Mitrione. At these odds I’ll toss it straight into the parlay bin and leave it there, but at least it’s one I can feel reasonably confident in.
Here’s where, before doing anything, you need to check your emotions at the door. Don’t let sentimentality make you a poor man just because you wanted to believe that Cro Cop had one more headkick KO left in him. Would that be an awesome finish to his UFC career? Sure it would. Is it likely to happen? Nope. Not only can Nelson take it, he can dish it out. There was a time when we could say the same about Cro Cop, but the years and the physical damage have piled up on him now, and he goes down easier and easier. Nelson is a slugger on the feet who could probably also beat Cro Cop on the ground if he wanted to. Cro Cop is still a legend of the sport, but he’s also a shadow of his former self. Don’t let it get you down, but don’t bet on a miraculous resurrection either. Those days are gone, my friend. At least the two of you will always have Tokyo. My pick: Nelson. It’s another one for the parlay, and another meager gain that breaks my heart just a little more than it’s worth.
While Curran is a likable guy and a real student of the game, if we’re being honest we also have to admit that he’s the MMA equivalent of an old car that’s held together by bailing wire and hope. He’s been beat up and broken down over the years, and has hung together reasonably well, all things considered. Still, when you look at his career record you see a man who’s been beaten by nearly every high-level opponent he’s faced. Jorgensen might be inexperienced by comparison, but not so much that he’s likely to get caught in a dumb submission or try to get too far away from his strengths. He’ll show up looking to ground-and-pound Curran into a bloody mess, and he’ll probably succeed. My pick: Jorgensen. The odds are a bit more lopsided than I expected, but they favor the right man.
Regular readers of this column will know that I simply must find at least one crazy underdog on every fight card, and when no obvious choice presents itself I am not above talking myself into one. So here goes: on paper, Hioki is the better fighter with the more established resume. He’s also spent almost his entire career fighting in Japan, and the UFC’s Octagon has not proved to be a very welcoming environment for many of his countrymen. Roop is a bigger fighter who is at home in the cage, and who, here and there, has shown flashes of real ability. He’s not championship material and probably never will be, but does he have what it takes to shock Hioki in his UFC debut in front of the friendly Las Vegas crowd? I think just maybe he does. My pick: Roop. It’s a tasty line that I just can’t resist under these circumstances. Some oddsmakers even have him as high as +325, so look around for a bargain if you feel like taking the leap with me.
Quick picks:
– Dennis Siver (+215) over Donald Cerrone (-275). Cerrone is tough, but Siver is a different class of opponent than what he’s been up against lately. In a pick-em I’d take “Cowboy,” but at these odds Siver is worth a small risk.
– Danny Downes (+155) over Ramsey Nijem (-185). You won’t get rich off it, but Downes is the smart play against a guy who’s probably not quite at this level just yet.
The ‘For Entertainment Purposes Only’ Parlay: Matt Mitrione + Roy Nelson + Scott Jorgensen + Brandon Vera
Filed under: UFCThe main event for UFC 137 may have seen its share of tweaking, but it’s not the only fight on this card with high stakes. Several fighters on Saturday night’s lineup could be just one loss away from unemployment, and one or two could e…
The main event for UFC 137 may have seen its share of tweaking, but it’s not the only fight on this card with high stakes. Several fighters on Saturday night’s lineup could be just one loss away from unemployment, and one or two could even be facing retirement if they can’t pull out a win.
Who are they, and what are their chances for crafting a brighter future for themselves in Las Vegas this weekend? For answers, we turn to the Cut List.
Roy Nelson (15-6, 2-2 UFC) Who he’s facing:Mirko Filipovic Why he’s in danger: “Big Country” has lost two straight, and while he might have a very valid reason for looking like a man about to die from exhaustion in his last fight, it still didn’t make a great impression on his employers. You factor in his occasionally obstinate independent streak, not to mention a physique that, rightly or wrongly, the UFC would probably rather not try to present to the world as that of a world-class MMA fighter, and you might be looking at a man that the organization wouldn’t mind doing without. In the plus category, Nelson has a solid fan following, in part because of the very same idiosyncrasies that might make him unappealing at times to the UFC. He’s also a name-brand heavyweight, and the UFC needs all of those that it can get. The infusion of the Strikeforce big men will certainly help bolster the division, but the UFC might still be reluctant to cast off too many heavies while there’s still value left in them. Chances of getting cut: Unlikely. The best thing Nelson has going for him here is the likelihood that he’ll win this fight. Oddsmakers have him as a nearly 3-1 favorite. As long as he’s healthy and focused, he should beat Cro Cop and solidify his employment situation.
Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic (27-9-2 [1 NC], 4-5 UFC) Who he’s facing: Roy Nelson Why he’s in danger: Like Nelson, Cro Cop has lost two in a row. He’s also at the end of his current UFC contract, and Dana White has implied that he’s only giving Filipovic this fight because he owes it to him. Even if he gets the upset victory, it’s far from guaranteed that the UFC would see enough of a future in the 37-year-old Croat to sign him to a new contract. If he loses, well, he’s already said that he’ll not only leave the UFC, but also apologize to its fans and its front office for failing to “justify the treatment” he’s received. It’s enough to make you wonder, under what circumstances would this not be Filipovic’s final fight in the UFC? Even if he kicks Nelson’s head into the third row, the best possible outcome might be Cro Cop calling it quits anyway and going out on a high note. Then again, rarely does one come across an aging MMA legend who doesn’t interpret a victory as a sure sign that he should keep fighting indefinitely. Chances of getting cut: Very good. But don’t think of it as a cut. Think of it as the natural (even necessary) end of something that we all knew couldn’t last forever. His stay in the UFC has been unspectacular, and his status as a legend is already established. No need to prolong this any further.
Tyson Griffin (15-5, 8-5 UFC) Who he’s facing:Bart Palaszewski Why he’s in danger: Griffin hit the dreaded three-fight skid recently, but managed to save himself by dropping down to featherweight and notching a decision win over Manny Gamburyan back in June. It was enough to grant him a temporary stay, but just barely. Now, facing another WEC transplant, he needs to show he can do more than just get by. The UFC might need featherweights to bolster the relatively thin (ha!) division, but it doesn’t need 145-pounders who can wrestle just well enough to win close, forgettable decisions. Griffin hasn’t had an impressive performance since he knocked out Hermes Franca over two years ago. If he wants a future in the UFC, he needs to show that he can not only get his hand raised, but entertain a few people along the way. Chances of getting cut: Decent. If he loses this fight (oddsmakers doubt he will), he’s almost certainly gone. Fortunately, Palaszewski is weak in all the places where Griffin is strong. If he gets this one to the mat and keeps it there, Griffin will probably stick around for at least a little while longer.
Eliot Marshall (10-3, 3-2 UFC) Who he’s facing: Brandon Vera Why he’s in danger: It’s no secret that UFC officials aren’t big fans of Marshall’s fighting style. If they were, they probably wouldn’t have cut him after a 3-1 stint the first time around. He got back in the fold mostly by volunteering for a short-notice fight against Luiz Cane, which he lost swiftly and thoroughly, but which still earned him the chance to show the UFC what he could do with proper notice and time to prepare. If Marshall loses here, it’s almost guaranteed that he’ll get dropped again. If that happens, he says, he’ll hang up the gloves and call if a career. If that doesn’t give him the necessary sense of desperation to go out and lay it all on the line here, nothing will. Of course, Vera’s looking at a similar situation, yet is a 5-1 favorite to knock Marshall right into retirement. Chances of getting cut: Very good. It’s hard to see how Marshall beats Vera. Perhaps a compelling fight would be enough to keep him around even in defeat, but don’t bet on it.
Brandon Vera (11-5 [1 NC], 7-5 [1 NC] UFC) Who he’s facing: Eliot Marshall Why he’s in danger: Vera also knows what it’s like to feel the sting of the UFC axe. If not for Thiago Silva’s non-human urine sample, he’d still be out of a job. But fair is fair, and the UFC rightly realized it couldn’t send a guy packing for losing to a juiced-up opponent, so “The Truth” gets one more chance to get it right. Both Vera and trainer Lloyd Irvin say he’s a different man in the gym now that he’s rediscovered his passion and motivation, but we’ve heard that before. The real test is whether he can perform in the cage under such tremendous pressure. The good news for Vera is that Marshall is a very, very beatable opponent. He probably doesn’t have the power or the wrestling chops to make it a ground fight for very long, and on the feet he’s in serious trouble. Or at least, he will be if Vera decides to use all his tools consistently and aggressively. We haven’t seen that in some time, but he has to know it’s now or never. Chances of getting cut: Unlikely. This is Vera’s fight to lose, and I doubt he will. Even if he performs at a fraction of his abilities, it’s probably enough to beat Marshall. It just won’t be enough to stick around for very long after that.
With UFC 137 in the books and the spookiest day of the year now upon us, let’s all grab a mini-Snickers and sort through the biggest winners, losers, and everything in between from Saturday night’s action in Las Vegas.
Last time on Fighter vs. Writer, I 
Questions, concerns, comments, and even a little statistical analysis, sort of: 
The main event for