Eight Ways of Looking at Strikeforce: Overeem vs. Werdum

Filed under: StrikeforceRemember that whole Strikeforce heavyweight Grand Prix thing? It didn’t disappear — turns out it was just hibernating. The big men return to action tonight in Dallas, so it’s time to sort through all the major storylines and bu…

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Remember that whole Strikeforce heavyweight Grand Prix thing? It didn’t disappear — turns out it was just hibernating. The big men return to action tonight in Dallas, so it’s time to sort through all the major storylines and burning questions.

I. November 16, 2007. That’s the last time Alistair Overeem went more than one round in an MMA fight. True, he has gone longer in K-1 bouts recently, but that’s a different type of fighting and a different type of cardio. Werdum thinks the extra “40 pounds of whoop-ass” that Overeem is so proud of may tire him out late in the fight, but the truth is that we just don’t know how the present day Overeem will look in the third round. We may not get to find out tonight, either.

II. For pure entertainment value, this card has as much or more to offer than the last couple UFC pay-per-views.
Even better, it’s free with a Showtime subscription, and the prelims are on HDNet, so if you paid for the top of the line cable package you now get great fights and the same four Tom Cruise movies on an endless loop. Talk about a deal. On paper, at least, I can’t recall a better night of fights in recent memory that didn’t cost 50 bucks upfront. Now if only Showtime would get it through their heads that Pat Miletich ought to be a staple at the broadcast table, they’d really be in business with this MMA stuff.

III. Josh Barnett continues the grand tradition of the very good heavyweight with a very poor physique.
Seeing him on the scales on Friday reminded me of one sportswriter’s description of baseball player Kirby Puckett as a man with the body of “a poorly packed duffel bag.” Let’s face it, Barnett will never be the ripped action-hero type, which might make him a tough sell to casual fans tuning into Showtime to see these supposedly great heavyweights. That’s fine. Barnett doesn’t have to be a fitness model. He just has to win the fights and prove that his lack of quality competition in recent years doesn’t mean he can’t still hang with the Overeem’s of the heavyweight division, even if he’ll never look like them.

IV. K.J. Noons insists he isn’t looking past Jorge Masvidal. At the same time he does seem to think he’s already worthy of a Strikeforce lightweight title shot, and is just waiting until Strikeforce realizes it too. An impressive win over Masvidal will help with that campaign, but only if Noons doesn’t get so caught up trying to be impressive that he forgets to be smart.

V. This week’s open media workouts were almost like a personality test for each fighter. Barnett did his pro wrestling schtick. Werdum joked and played around with flying armbars and fancy sweeps that he almost certainly does not plan on using on Saturday night. Overeem did his workout primarily in private, essentially defeating the purpose of the open workout altogether. Rogers took it all very seriously, hitting mitts like he was trying to break his coach’s hands. So what did we learn? That these are four very different men, with very different approaches to their craft. But we probably knew that already.

VI. If Daniel Cormier beats Jeff Monson — and he probably will — the grooming period is officially over. Cormier is 32 years old and he has two years of MMA experience under his belt. A win over a veteran like “The Snowman,” and he won’t be able to take the slow, gradual approach to moving up the ladder anymore. Unless he loses or looks terrible on Saturday night, things are about to go into hyper-drive for Cormier.

VII. The most unpredictable and interesting fight on the main card might also be the least meaningful. I refer now, of course, to the Chad GriggsValentijn Overeem bout. It’s not that the fight is insignificant, but as a reserve bout in a tournament that goes months between events anyway, the winner probably won’t ever see his name in the official bracket. Is that so bad? Not necessarily. Overeem is a journeyman, and Griggs ought to be a light heavyweight, so a chance to show off some skills and get a paycheck out of it is nothing to complain about. Still, I have no idea how this one is going to go, which is part of what makes it so fun.

VIII. Werdum cited his win over Fedor Emelianenko last time this year as proof that June is his month. He’s fought three times in June so far in his career (the fight with Overeem will be the fourth), and he’s never lost yet. He just has to hope his next fight doesn’t go down in October — a month where he’s 0-2.

 

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Fighter vs. Writer: Strikeforce GP Picks With Nate Marquardt

Last time on Fighter vs. Writer, I absolutely smoked Yves Edwards with my UFC 130 picks in one of the most lopsided wins in the history of the series. I’d like to brag about it more, but Edwards is such a nice guy and a class act, I can’t bring myself …

Last time on Fighter vs. Writer, I absolutely smoked Yves Edwards with my UFC 130 picks in one of the most lopsided wins in the history of the series. I’d like to brag about it more, but Edwards is such a nice guy and a class act, I can’t bring myself to do it, which is a real shame.

For the next installment of the Strikeforce heavyweight Grand Prix, I called upon Nate Marquardt, another man who’s already in fight mode for his bout with Rick Story at UFC Live next Saturday night. Nate the Great was kind enough to take some time out of his busy training schedule to prognosticate against me, and for that we thank him.

Now, time to extend my win streak…

Alistair Overeem vs. Fabricio Werdum

Marquardt: Overeem via decision. “He’s bigger, stronger, faster – obviously a better striker. I think Werdum is tough, but he’s going to have trouble with the stand-up and I don’t think his wrestling is good enough to pose a threat to Overeem.”
Fowlkes: Overeem via TKO. I agree with just about everything Nate said, except I’m not sure I see Werdum getting out of the first round. His best hope is that the hulking Overeem will tire out in the later rounds, but surviving the initial blitzkrieg from that big man will be tough.

Josh Barnett vs. Brett Rogers

Marquardt: Barnett via submission. “He’s more experienced and better on the ground. I think Brett Rogers hits very hard, but I think he’s a little green and he’s missing a lot of technique.”
Fowlkes: Barnett via submission. While I’m tempted to take a flyer on “The Grimm” based on the awesome power of his bungalows, I just don’t see it happening. Barnett gets him down and finishes it early here.

Jorge Masvidal vs. K.J. Noons

Marquardt: Nobody. “I know K.J. Noons, but I don’t know the other guy, so I can’t say.”
Fowlkes: Noons via decision. Since I’ve been burned before I’m always suspicious when fighters refuse to pick, since that means they can only score if the bout is a draw or no contest or doesn’t happen at all, but I think I’m safe this time. Noons will chase Masvidal down and get the brawl he wants.

Daniel Cormier vs. Jeff Monson

Marquardt: Cormier via decision. “I think obviously Jeff Monson’s probably stronger and better on the ground, but Cormier will come in with a good game plan. But if they end up on the ground too much, Cormier could be in trouble with Monson.”
Fowlkes: Cormier via decision. Simply put, Cormier has the ability to dictate where this fight takes place, and Monson doesn’t. It’s a good test for the former Olympian, but I think he’ll do well, even if Monson will prove difficult to put away.

Chad Griggs vs. Valentijn Overeem

Marquardt: Overeem via TKO. “He’s probably the better striker, and he has a lot more experience.”
Fowlkes: Griggs by TKO. There’s just no way I can’t root for Griggs and his glorious muttonchops at this point. Strikeforce seems to want to forget about him, but he just won’t allow it.

Tiebreaker question: time of shortest fight on the main card:

Marquardt: 4:00
Fowlkes: 3:07

Marquardt picks:
Overeem, Barnett, nobody, Cormier, Overeem
Fowlkes picks: Overeem, Barnett, Noons, Cormier, Griggs

 

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Strikeforce: Overeem vs. Werdum — By the Odds

Filed under: StrikeforceIt took a while, but we’re finally getting the next installment in the Strikeforce heavyweight Grand Prix this Saturday night, which means there’s always a chance for some profitable upsets if you know how to pick them.

Last ti…

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Fabricio WerdumIt took a while, but we’re finally getting the next installment in the Strikeforce heavyweight Grand Prix this Saturday night, which means there’s always a chance for some profitable upsets if you know how to pick them.

Last time, Antonio Silva was the underdog shocker. This time, who knows?

Oddsmakers have already laid out their vision for how the night will play out. Now it’s our turn.

Alistair Overeem (-500) vs. Fabricio Werdum (+300)

The last time he was a heavy underdog, Werdum made a fool out of oddsmakers (and people like me) with an upset victory over Fedor Emelianenko. Can he do it again? I hate to sound like a man who can’t learn from his mistakes, but I doubt it. Werdum doesn’t have the wrestling skills to take Overeem down, and my guess is that the K-1 champ isn’t going to willingly go to the floor. If Werdum has to stand in front of the big Dutchman, he’ll be eaten alive inside of one round. His best chance is to take it into the later rounds in the hope that it’s been too long since Overeem has had to fight more than a minute or two in an MMA cage. If Werdum can manage that, then Overeem’s bulk might start to work against him. But when you factor in Werdum’s long layoff and his mediocre striking skills, it begins to seem like simply surviving the first round will be a challenge as daunting as Overeem’s biceps.
My pick: Overeem. At these odds, you’d be crazy to lay a straight bet on it. You might be half crazy if you include him in a parlay. Still, Werdum doesn’t have enough good options to justify the risk.

Josh Barnett (-500) vs. Brett Rogers (+300)

If it’s a big underdog you’re looking for, Rogers might actually be your best hope. A guy his size, with his power, can never be counted out of a fight, especially when he’s fighting someone who hasn’t exactly faced the best of the best lately. If we’re just talking about straight-up skills and experience, of course, the edge goes to Barnett. He ought to be able to get Rogers down without much trouble, and once it hits the mat Rogers will be swimming in Barnett’s pool. Still, if you’re going to get crazy with your picks, this is the fight to do it with. Barnett hasn’t been about much recently, and Rogers can always put some leather on your chin and ruin your night. I guess the question is, just how crazy do you feel?
My pick: Barnett. I’ll admit it: I don’t feel quite crazy enough. Barnett’s range and experience will rule the day here.

K.J. Noons (-165) vs. Jorge Masvidal (+135)

Noons wants to bang, while Masvidal wants to counter. If I had to guess which one will get his way, I throw my lot in with Noons. At lightweight, he’s a legitimate problem for most of the fighters on the Strikeforce roster. He’s got good hand speed and dangerous power – at least when he’s not giving up too many pounds as a welterweight, as he did against Nick Diaz. Masvidal is a tough, experienced fighter who can give as good as he gets, but I think he’ll end up getting more than giving against the quicker, more aggressive Noons.
My pick: Noons. He may have to chase Masvidal down, but I think he’ll eventually catch him and get that brawl he’s looking for.

Daniel Cormier (-550) vs. Jeff Monson (+350)

At the open workouts, Monson admitted that his wrestling isn’t anywhere near as good as Cormier’s, so he probably won’t be able to take the former Olympian down. He also doesn’t particularly like his chances to submit Cormier off his back, he said, which leaves me wondering, how exactly does he see himself winning? Cormier expects Monson to more or less concede the takedown and rely on sweeps to gain top position, but there’s also the chance that these two grapplers will decide to stand there and slug it out. Cormier says he’s fine with that, and I don’t blame him. Cormier has almost every advantage in this fight, except when it comes to experience. Still, with all the international competitions Cormier has under his belt as a wrestler, Monson better bring more to this fight than just his cage savvy.
My pick: Cormier. Monson will be his stiffest test, but I predict he’ll pass with flying colors. At these odds though, you won’t profit from it.

Valentijn Overeem (+105) vs. Chad Griggs (-135)

You want a completely unpredictable fight that should be a lot of fun no matter who wins? Well, here you go. There’s no telling what these two will do when they get in there, but after Griggs’ last fight against Gian Villante, we should all be paying close attention to him now. The man has a brawler’s sensibilities and a head made of concrete. That’s good, since the lesser-known Overeem brother will probably test it early and often. The problem with Valentijn, however, is that you just never know what you’re going to get out of him. Some nights he’s a beast, others…not so much. With a guy like Griggs getting in your face right off the bat, you better show up prepared for a battle.
My pick: Griggs. Maybe it’s the muttonchops, or maybe it’s the way he threw out all regard for his own safety in his last fight. I don’t know, but I do know I’m not prepared to pick against him here.

 

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Jorge Masvidal Says K.J. Noons Can Look Past Him All the Way to the Hospital

Filed under: Strikeforce, NewsDALLAS – Just like no fighter wants to admit to overlooking an upcoming opponent, no opponent wants to be overlooked. So when Jorge Masvidal heard that K.J. Noons already has his eye on a potential lightweight title shot, …

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DALLAS – Just like no fighter wants to admit to overlooking an upcoming opponent, no opponent wants to be overlooked. So when Jorge Masvidal heard that K.J. Noons already has his eye on a potential lightweight title shot, the anger couldn’t help but simmer over just a bit.

“It’s good for me, because the only thing he’s going to be looking at is the doctor after this fight,” Masvidal said on Thursday. “He’s going to have a tube in his mouth, getting rushed to the hospital. I really don’t care.”

Of course, when it comes to the whole ‘of course I’m looking past him‘ remark, Noons insisted that he didn’t mean he wasn’t taking Masvidal seriously. Quite the contrary, he said.

“I’m not looking past him; I’m just looking at a goal. The ultimate goal is to be the best in the world, obviously, so if it’s that close it’s making me more motivated to train hard for this guy so I can get that title shot. But by no means am I looking past him. I think this is one of my toughest opponents ahead of me.”

In Noons, Masvidal sees a guy who likes to brawl more than he likes to box. And that, Masvidal said, just isn’t his style.

“I move, I hit. The drunk fans don’t want to see that, but that’s what I do. I move my head. I don’t get hit,” Masvidal said. “I’m not a sock-em, rock-em type of guy.”

He expects Noons to come in looking for a messy brawl, and even Noons admitted that Masvidal probably wasn’t far off in that assessment.

“I think he’s pretty right on. I consider myself a boxer-brawler. I can go out there and box if I want to, but…that’s not what I like to watch as a fan, and that’s how I like to fight is to get in there and mix it up and take risk,” said Noons. “If you take the risk, there’s higher reward. But with those risks you may have the risk of getting hit, getting knocked out, but that’s what makes for exciting fights.”

It’s also what makes for the kind of fights that Noons hopes will soon earn him a title shot. That is, if he gets past Masvidal, who seems far less concerned about a belt than he is about the task at hand on Saturday night.

“I want to punch his face in, and then we’ll get to whatever comes next,” said Masvidal.

He may not want to brawl, but those hardly sound like the words of a man in search of a safe decision.

 

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Josh Barnett Is an ‘Old Dog’, Says Brett Rogers

Filed under: StrikeforceDALLAS – Once things started happening for Brett Rogers (11-2), they happened fast. Maybe a little too fast, looking back on it.

In April of 2009 he raised some eyebrows in his Strikeforce debut with a TKO win over the unherald…

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DALLAS – Once things started happening for Brett Rogers (11-2), they happened fast. Maybe a little too fast, looking back on it.

In April of 2009 he raised some eyebrows in his Strikeforce debut with a TKO win over the unheralded Abongo Humphrey. By the end of the following spring, he’d taken on former UFC heavyweight champion Andrei Arlovski, former Pride champion Fedor Emelianenko, and current Strikeforce heavyweight champion Alistair Overeem.

That’s not a step up into a different class of competition – it’s a one-way rocketship to a whole different galaxy of competition. Rogers, who went 1-2 in that eleven-month stretch, learned a few hard lessons in a hurry that way. The good news is that as he prepares to face Josh Barnett (29-5) in the Strikeforce heavyweight Grand Prix on Saturday night, he has the benefit of that hard-won wisdom to help him along. So he hopes, anyway.

“For one thing, I learned I need to calm my a– down and not listen to everybody else,” Rogers told MMA Fighting this week. “When I say everybody, I mean media, fans, manager. I was listening to everyone else. I know now, especially after this last title fight, ultimately it’s me in the cage.”

The last time Rogers was in the Strikeforce cage he got demolished in three and a half minutes by Overeem in a title fight he was never really competitive in. He rebounded in the small circuit with a decision win over journeyman Ruben Villareal, but he didn’t train as hard as he should have for that fight, he admitted, and he “felt like crap” as a result.

The present-day Rogers is older, wiser, and not as brash as the one who called out Kimbo Slice at an EliteXC press conference. At the same time, he’s still a “300-pound Spiderman” with a little swagger when he needs it, Rogers insisted.

“I can’t always be ‘hater Rogers.’ I get a couple people saying, ‘Why don’t you bring back hater Rogers?’ Hater Rogers ain’t gone nowhere. It’s still in there, please believe me. It’s just, I need to take my time, analyze my opponents, and not just hear a name and say ‘let’s go.'”

But there are no easy fights in the Strikeforce tournament – especially not for someone as relatively inexperienced as Rogers. Barnett is a fourteen-year veteran of the sport with nearly three times as many fights to his credit. According to oddsmakers, he’s also a heavy favorite, and even Rogers can understand their logic in that regard.

“In this fight? I’m not going to hate: yeah, I should be the underdog,” Rogers said. “Josh, he’s been in the game for such a long time. I mean, he’s been all over the world, fought tough dudes, so I give him that.”

But if there’s one thing Rogers never lost confidence in, it’s his own pure punching power. Against Barnett, he seems to be hoping that it might be his saving grace.

“If he decides to stand up with me, it’s definitely going to be lights out for him,” said Rogers. “Because he’s getting older, and I ain’t talking about his age, because I’m getting older too. … I put him in that old dog category. Like you can’t teach an old dog new tricks, I’m saying it like that. He has to come out and do it just as well as I do. We’re just going to see how it is this weekend.”

 

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Werdum Calls Him ‘My Son,’ but Overeem Says Rematch a ‘New Fight’

DALLAS – To Fabricio Werdum, it’s just a joke. To Alistair Overeem, it’s just plain confusing. But when Werdum calls Overeem his “son,” it’s not because he sees a family resemblance in the Dutch behemoth. It’s because he remembers very well what happen…

DALLAS – To Fabricio Werdum, it’s just a joke. To Alistair Overeem, it’s just plain confusing. But when Werdum calls Overeem his “son,” it’s not because he sees a family resemblance in the Dutch behemoth. It’s because he remembers very well what happened the first time they met in a 2006 fight in Japan’s Pride Fighting organization, when Werdum won via submission.

“It’s like, if we play Xbox and I beat you five times: you’re my son,” Werdum told MMA Fighting earlier this week. “It’s not because I’m an arrogant guy. It’s joking around.”

A joke, but at the same time the message is clear: I beat you once, and I can do it again.

Overeem, however, might not be getting that message.

“I still don’t know what that means, so it doesn’t bother me at all,” the Strikeforce heavyweight champion said. “He can talk whatever he wants.”

It’s been five years since Werdum won the first meeting, and a lot has changed. For starters, Overeem grew an entirely different body. Back then he was “a light heavyweight fighting a heavyweight,” he said. He weighed about 220 pounds and had nowhere near the power or the experience that he has today.

The Overeem that strolled into Thursday afternoon’s media workouts looked like a man who would have used the Overeem of five years ago as a Q-tip. Everything on him is the size of something else. His arms are the size of a normal person’s thighs. His thighs are the size of a normal person’s Labrador retriever. If asked to identify the man who lost to Werdum that in Osaka, many of the spectators who were ringside that night would probably point to the present day Overeem and say it looked like a miniature version of that guy.

For Saturday night’s Strikeforce Grand Prix quarterfinal match, Overeem estimates he’ll be about 260 pounds. As his recent K-1 title indicates, he’ll also be a much better striker than the one Werdum faced in Japan, so the result from the first fight might as well be thrown out altogether, at least in his mind.

“[Werdum] doesn’t have a mental advantage,” said Overeem. “He might think that, but for me, it’s not there. I see this as a new fight. He’s grown as a fighter, but so have I.”

For Werdum, the differences are less physical than technical. Back in 2006 he hardly did any stand-up training, he said, “just jiu-jitsu.” Now he’s had time to improve his own striking, though he acknowledges that he probably has to get the fight to the floor in order to win. As for Overeem’s increased size? Werdum is hoping that will be as much a hindrance as a help in the rematch.

“Now he’s a bigger guy, so that means he has to carry more muscles and more weight,” he said. “Probably he’s going to get tired faster.”

That is, if the fight lasts that long.

Overeem has spent just a shade over five combined minutes in the ring in his last three fights, so taking this wrecking ball into the later rounds might be harder than it sounds. That might explain why Overeem is as heavy as a 5-1 favorite according to some oddsmakers. Werdum isn’t exactly known for his takedown skills, and if he has to stand in front of the man who recently earned the right to call himself the world’s best kickboxer, even he doesn’t seem terribly optimistic.

Then again, Werdum’s fight with Fedor Emelianenko was supposed to be equally as hopeless, and look how that turned out. He went in as a heavy underdog, and emerged with one more fighter he can now call his son.

As Werdum reminded reporters on Thursday, that upset happened just about this time last year.

“June,” the Brazilian said with a smile. “It’s my month.”

 

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