Author: Craig Amos

The flyweight division has the distinction of being the UFC’s only weight class to have had just one champion.

While this absence of parity can partly be attributed to the division’s recent inception, there looms another influential factor—the dominance of titleholder Demetrious Johnson, who currently ranks No. 2 on the UFC pound-for-pound list.

An absence of talent is not an issue. However, the division is brimming with ability, both established and upcoming. But despite these riches, the 125-pound class remains mired in competitive stasis, a condition stemming from its small stable of combatants. 

Many of the division’s top fighters own one or multiple losses to the champion, hampering their chance for a title shot. This characteristic confuses things but also makes for an intriguing scenario in which any number of fighters could plausibly emerge as a front-runner.

 

The Title Picture

  

Demetrious Johnson

Since becoming the inaugural flyweight champion, Johnson has sent back six challengers, including the ultradangerous John Dodson, twice.

His reign has been defined by dominance that’s flourished to a point bordering tedium. Johnson’s style isn’t dull or even especially methodical. It’s simply that moments of uncertainty during his fights, where victory is in jeopardy, are few and far between.

Currently there are 34 fighters comprising the flyweight division, according to the promotion’s website. Of the top seven ranked immediately behind Johnson, five have already lost to the champ. Three of those five have lost to him twice. The two fighters Johnson has not yet met are Henry Cejudo and Jussier Formiga.

 

Henry Cejudo

Cejudo is the natural No. 1 contender. He possesses a 10-0 professional record, including four wins in the UFC, and owns an Olympic gold medal in freestyle wrestling. But The Messenger is not without warts. He has beaten just one top-10 opponent and has not finished anyone inside the Octagon.

His case for a shot is bolstered by the aspect of novelty. The UFC has demonstrated a willingness to bestow title shots on fresh contenders, even if doing so undermines their official rankings.

Because Cejudo recently defeated Formiga, the only other top-seven fighter Johnson has not defeated, he seems a lock to be the division’s next challenger. Inside MMA tweeted: “According to Sources: Henry Cejudo expected to get next title shot against flyweight champ Demetrious Johnson.”

 

Summary of Title Picture

Cejudo’s candidacy exhibits the crux of the flyweight title scene: It is running out of new challenges for its champion. 

There is a lot of talent near the top of the rankings. Guys like Joseph Benavidez and Dodson have been phenomenal against everyone but Johnson, even at the bantamweight level.

But the combination of few flyweights and a dominant champion means you either get reruns or accelerate the arc of any new competitor that shows potential. 

Top 10 Fighter	# of Losses to Johnson
1. Joseph Benavidez	2
2. John Dodson	2
3. Henry Cejudo	0
4. Ian McCall	1 (1 draw)
5. Jussier Formiga	0
6. Kyoji Horiguchi	1
7. John Moraga	1
8. Zach Makovsky	0
9. Dustin Ortiz	0
10. Ali Bagautinov	1

 

On the Verge 

 

 

Joseph Benavidez 

If not for Johnson, Benavidez might be regarded as one of the best fighters on the planet.

His hit list includes many top flyweights, and his only losses at 125 have come against the champ. This second-fiddle narrative feels familiar for Benavidez, whose only defeats at bantamweight, his previous division, came against former champion and future Hall of Famer Dominick Cruz.

But even if he remains the de facto No. 1 contender, the UFC cannot continue to trot him out against Johnson. Should Benavidez keep winning, he will eventually force the promotion’s hand for a third try. But he is fighting an uphill battle at this point.

 

John Dodson 

Dodson is in a similar position as Benavidez: He always wins, except against the champion. Because he is coming off a loss to Johnson, whereas Benavidez has a four-fight win streak, Dodson is second in line among those with multiple abortive title runs.

A Dodson vs. Benavidez clash would give Dodson a chance to change things, but the UFC may be reluctant to make that match. If Dodson were to win, he would look like an undeniable No. 1 contender, which would be problematic because he lost to Johnson for a second time in his last outing.

 

Jussier Formiga

Formiga has defeated just one opponent currently ranked in the top 10, yet he may have been in line for a title shot had he defeated Cejudo last November. The submission specialist has not shown ability on par with Benavidez or Dodson, but because he has never fought Johnson, he has a lot less to prove before getting the call.

 

Ian McCall

The UFC might be able to sell Ian McCall as a title challenger because he once fought Johnson to a draw. But his candidacy doesn’t make much sense from a competitive standpoint.

His UFC record is 2-3-1, and both wins came against flyweight nonfactors. He does own pre-UFC wins over Formiga and Dustin Ortiz, but he will need a couple of meaningful victories before drawing a title shot.

 

Dustin Ortiz

Ortiz hasn’t beaten a top flyweight, but he’s done well against tough competition. He also represents a fresh challenge for Johnson. Ortiz will need to grab a signature win, though. If he’s able to do so, he might quickly be ushered to the front of the line. 

 

Kyoji Horiguchi

Kyoji Horiguchi is obviously talented, but none of his five UFC wins have come against ranked opposition. He’s still young (25) though, and he could get right back into the title mix by beating someone like Benavidez, Dodson, Formiga, Ortiz or John Moraga.

Depending on the matchmaking, he is two or four-plus fights away. It depends on how quickly the promotion wants to move him.

 

Summary of Those on the Verge

Beyond Cejudo, the title picture is muddled.

There is no shortage of candidates, but several top fighters are at a disadvantage by already losing once or twice to the champion, and others have been defeated by those top-ranked guys who have lost to Johnson.

There are a few different routes the promotion can take to sift out contenders. Aside from future outcomes dictating direction, the question of leaning toward the most successful fighters, such as Benavidez and Dodson, or new opponents, such as Formiga and Ortiz, will carry influence.

 

A Long Way to Go

 

Zach Makovsky

Makovsky has pieced together a 3-2 record inside the Octagon, beating three nontitle factors while losing to contenders. Those results reek of gatekeeper status, but Makovsky has a chance to change the narrative by upsetting Benavidez at UFC 196.

 

John Moraga

If the division wasn’t so cluttered, Moraga would be closer to a title shot. His mobility is limited by having lost not only to Johnson but also to Benavidez and Dodson. Beating a top-ranked fighter is the quickest route to contendership, and Moraga isn’t likely to get a rematch with either one.

If he keeps winning, he will eventually resurface as a contender. But it’s unlikely a shot comes in 2016.

 

Ali Bagautinov

There isn’t that much to differentiate Bagautinov from many of the other contenders at flyweight—except that he is coming off back-to-back losses. Those defeats were to Johnson and Benavidez but still hamper his chances to compete for the strap a second time.

 

Summary of Those with a Long Way to Go

More talent. The flyweight division is lousy with it. Any of these three fighters could be considered a dark horse title challenger in 2016, but more likely they’ll need to have strong years to emerge in 2017. Makovsky may be the exception if he beats Benavidez in February.

 

The Prospects

  

Ray Borg

Since dropping a split decision in his UFC debut, Borg has reeled off three impressive wins, most recently defeating fellow up-and-comer Geane Herrera last August. He is just 22 years old and has shown copious upside.

 

Louis Smolka

Louis Smolka is 24 and has already compiled a 4-1 UFC mark. He has yet to face a top-tier foe, but he has found success against solid opposition in Neil Seery and Patrick Holohan. Smolka does not have an upcoming fight scheduled, but don’t be surprised if it comes against a recognizable name.

 

Justin Scoggins

The 23-year-old Scoggins is just 3-2 as a UFC fighter, but his losses came against tough, top-10 opponents Moraga and Ortiz. If you need a further excuse to qualify the setbacks, Scoggins was clearly a round up on Moraga before getting caught in a guillotine, and his loss to Ortiz was a split decision. He’ll take on Borg at UFC 196 in a battle of the prospects.

 

Sergio Pettis

Sergio Pettis entered the UFC towing the unfortunate expectations of being his older brother, Anthony. When a 2-2 run followed a shaky UFC debut, the bust label was out and waiting for application. Pettis then dropped from bantamweight to flyweight and soundly defeated a tough opponent in Chris Cariaso. At 22, he still has plenty of time to develop.

 

Geane Herrera

Geane Herrera had the misfortune of facing Borg in his UFC debut, but the highly regarded 25-year-old showed more of what he can do against Joby Sanchez in his sophomore effort.

He is the oldest prospect on this list and may also have the least upside. But omitting him would be overlooking a fighter with a plausible chance to factor into the title picture somewhere down the road.

 

Conclusion of Prospects

The flyweight division is flush with ability but suffers from a limited roster. An influx of young talent will help remedy the issue that size causes at the upper echelon, as guys like Borg, Smolka and Scoggins are poised to break through, while Pettis and Herrera could factor in down the road.

Johnson’s continued dominance has led some to suggest his future is at bantamweight. But if he opts to remain in the 125-pound division, he’ll find some new challenges within the next couple of years.

 

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