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Welcome to Midnight Mania!

It’s been just over two months since Ilia Topuria flattened Alexander Volkanovski (watch here) with a massive right hand to claim the Featherweight crown. As a result of that victory, the Spanish fighter has options. The frontrunner for the next title shot is Max Holloway, who delivered his own tremendous knockout just a couple weeks ago at UFC 300 to seemingly solidify his position as the top contender in whatever division he wants!

Topuria, however, is a bit less enthused. He’s also talked about rematching Volkanovski next, though the Australian’s return to competition timeline is uncertain. He’s also mentioned Brian Ortega as an option, and he dares Bantamweight king Sean O’Malley to step up to his weight class.

Safe to say, Topuria has options.

He might want to fight all of them in short fashion if he’s to make his 2025 goal a reality, however. In a recent interview, Topuria revealed his goal and belief that by the end of 2025, he would be the best paid athlete in the world.

“Look, I can tell you that I have no doubt that in 2025, I will be the highest paid athlete in the world,” Topuria told Webpositer. When told Cristiano Ronaldo is set to make $130 million this year, Topuria promised, “I’ll be there. I’d be surprised if I didn’t do it” and “I have no doubt, really.”

Perhaps that’s why Topuria is insistent that Holloway put his BMF belt on the line as well? If Topuria is targeting absolutely massive paychecks, he’ll need every bit of fame and prestige possible. The problem is that standard UFC championship purses will not get him that many zeroes, so he’ll also need his own Conor McGregor vs. Floyd Mayweather moment to really explode onto the Forbes list. It doesn’t sound likely or even all that possible, but Topuria has walked the talk thus far.

He might want to hurry up and book a title defense though.

Insomnia

What new information is likely to come to light that NSAC couldn’t just settle on a length of suspension now?

Muhammad Mokaev reacts to getting leapfrogged in the rankings by the man he just beat:

Speaking of Alex Perez, he’s taking a quick turnaround against tough competition. Hopefully, he’s able to stay active now, because his fights are usually fun.

Looks like Petr Yan vs. Marlon Vera isn’t happening as soon as hoped … or maybe at all.

Is this the 2.0 version of foot stomps? MMA innovation!

I never learned this finish to the head inside single leg.

The spin move seals it.

Slips, rips, and KO clips

Usually, it’s hard to kick the liver when two Southpaws face off, but kicking as the other man punches is one workaround.

Fire a head kick to convince them to swing, then stand ground with a counter punch:

Double jab and a whipping overhand! That punch reminds me of Chuck Liddell’s demonstration of how to throw an overhand: loose arm with a rock at the end.

Random Land

Gecko lunch.

Midnight Music: Soul, 1970

Sleep well Maniacs! More martial arts madness is always on the way.

UFC 301 goes live this weekend (Sat., May 4, 2024) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Checkout all the odds right here …

UFC 301 takes the world’s premier mixed martial arts (MMA) promotion back to Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, this weekend (Sat., May 4, 2024) with a fight card boasting Brazilian talent, both young and old. The pay-per-view (PPV) main event features Flyweight champion, Alexandre Pantoja, defending his crown for the very first time. He meets unlikely challenger, Steve Erceg, who is currently ranked No. 10 in the division with just three Octagon appearances under his belt.

The co-main event has former Featherweight kingpin, Jose Aldo, sensationally returning to action to face tough Top 15-ranked Bantamweight contender, Jonathan Martinez. UFC 301’s PPV main card (see it here) also features the always-fun Michel Pereira meeting Ihor Potieria and the sometimes-fun Paul Craig facing the never-fun Caio Borralho.

UFC 301’s “Prelims” undercard bouts are built to provide the Rio crowd non-stop opportunities to sing, “Uh vai morrer.” As always the card has plenty of opportunities for the gambling crowd and we’re going to break those down below …

UFC 301 PPV Main Card Money Line Odds

Alexandre Pantoja (-185) vs. Steve Erceg (+154)

The champion is the favorite in UFC 301’s main event, though not by much. Indeed, oddsmakers have challenger, Erceg, as a slight underdog, seemingly convinced that he can give the Brazilian a tough test in enemy territory. The 27-year-old Kiwi has been given a lot of respect here, even though his best win is a knockout over Matt Schnell (watch highlights). Pantoja, on the other hand, is coming off epic wins over Brandon Royval and Brandon Moreno (he also once KO’d Schnell).

Jonathan Martinez (-162) vs. Jose Aldo (+136)

Aldo is a slight underdog on his return to UFC. The 37-year-old former Featherweight champ last fought in the cage in 2022, losing a unanimous decision to Merab Dvalishvili. Aldo announced his retirement after that. Since then, he’s given boxing a go. Last year, he fought Jeremy Stephens to a majority draw and beat Esteban Gabriel Espindola via unanimous decision. During the time Aldo was away, Martinez won three fights inside the Octagon, finishing Cub Swanson and Adrian Yanez with leg kicks and decision-ing Said Nurmagomedov. Given his activity, and the fact he is seven years younger than Aldo, I expected to see him given shorter odds than he’s currently getting.

Anthony Smith (+390) vs. Vitor Petrino (-520)

Smith makes the long trip to Brazil to face Petrino and finds himself as one of the biggest underdogs on the card. The 35-year-old former Light Heavyweight title challenger hasn’t beaten anyone not named Ryan Spann since late 2021. His two wins over Spann are surrounded by losses to Magomed Ankalaev, Johnny Walker and Khalil Rountree Jr. The Ankalaev and Rountree losses came via technical knockout. Petrino is undefeated (11-0) and is almost 10 years younger than Smith. He has finished half of his six fights inside the Octagon. This could make for a rough night for “Lionheart.”

Michel Pereira (-535) vs. Ihor Potieria (+400)

That long-legged high-kicking back-flipping man Michel Pereira is one of the biggest favorites on the card at UFC 301. And there’s no mystery as to why. Since finding a nice balance between being effective and being bats**t, he’s managed to build a seven-fight win streak. Poteria has looked far less impressive in his last six bouts. During that run he beat Robert Bryczek (despite missing weight) and the remains of Shogun Rua, but lost the other three bouts all via technical knockout. Certainly feels like he’s been brought down to Brazil as a live body for Pereira to wheel kick.

Paul Craig (+410) vs. Caio Borralho (-550)

According to Vegas, this is the biggest mismatch on the card. And I can certainly see the reason(s). Borralho comes into this with a 17-1 1 NC record and a reputation for making fights as boring as possible as he plays wet blanket over foes who, so far, have been unable to figure out how to get out from under him. Craig has transformed himself from a bit of a novelty act to a legitimate Octagon veteran who has fought a “Who’s Who” at Middleweight. He’s had mixed success against the division with his wins coming from his rangy and creative MMA grappling game. Given Borralho’s past performances (and BJJ bona fides), the oddsmakers clearly believe that Craig will be unable to get anywhere near his preferred path to victory here.

UFC 301 Late ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Jack Shore (+124) vs. Joanderson Brito (-148)

Both Shore and Brito come into this one with just one blemish on their UFC careers. Shore was subbed by Ricky Simon in 2022. Brito lost a unanimous decision to Bill Algeo in that same year. Last time out, Brito and Shore both scored submission wins, over Jonathan Pearce and Makwan Amirkhani, respectively.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz (+330) vs. Iasmin Lucindo (-425)

Former UFC trawweight title challenger, Kowalkiewicz, is a big underdog despite having won her last four fights. Lucindo is just 22 (16 years younger than Kowalkiewicz). She’s fought three times in UFC and is coming off a win over Polyana Viana.

Elves Brener (+230) vs. Myktybek Orolbai (-285)

Brener is the biggest Brazilian underdog on the card. He’s undefeated (3-0) in the promotion, debuting on short notice to give Zubaira Tukhogov a split decision loss (while at +470 odds). Myktybek Orolbai looks great having beaten Uros Medic last time out, especially after what Medic did on the weekend. Orolbai has nine finishes in his 12-1-1 pro record.

Jean Silva (-162) vs. William Gomis (+136)

Silva is a Contender Series graduate who KO’d Westin Wilson in his proper debut in January. Gomis hasn’t lost since getting caught by a Morgan Charriere heel hook as a 19-year-old in 2016.

UFC 301 Early ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Joaquim Silva (+140) vs. Drakkar Klose (-162)

Klose is undefeated since his loss to Beneil Dariush in 2020. Since then, he’s only competed three times, though. He returned from an ACL injury in Dec. 2023 to beat Joe Solecki via slam (watch it). Silva is 6-4 in UFC. His last two wins were against Clay Guida and Jesse Ronson.

Mauricio Ruffy (-175) vs. Jamie Mullarkey (+145)

Ruffy goes by “One Shot.” He makes it to UFC proper after a technical knockout win on Contender Series last year. Mullarkey continues to collect frequent flyer miles here, coming off a technical knockout loss to Nasrat Haqparast in Dec. 2023.

Dione Barbosa (-205) vs. Ernesta Kareckaite (+170)

Both these women are coming off Contender Series and are looking to win their proper UFC debuts.

Ismael Bonfim (-535) vs. Vinc Pichel (+400)

The second biggest mismatch of the night, according to oddsmakers, has Bonfim as a huge favorite over Vinc Pichel. Bonfirm was perfect (2-0) in UFC before Benoit Saint-Denis ruined his night last year. Pichel, 41, has been signed with UFC for what seems like 100 years, but has only fought once since 2021.

Alessandro Costa (-125) vs. Kevin Borjas (+105)

Costa lost to Erceg in his last bout back in Nov. 2023. His other UFC bouts are a win over Jimmy Flick and a loss to Amir Albazi. Contender Series alum, Kevin Borjas, lost to Joshua Van last time out.

UFC 301 Prop Bets And Parlays

Ruffy vs. Mullarkey Under 1.5 Rounds (+124)

The oddsmakers clearly have questions over Mullarkey’s durability at UFC 301, setting a pretty appealing price for under 1.5 rounds. Mullarkey is coming off a first round technical knockout loss. Ruffy has won four of his nine fights within the first round. I can see a scenario where Ruffy shows he’s good for his “One Shot” nickname and puts away a jet-lagged Mullarkey. Or, maybe Ruffy is over-hyped as a 30-year-old UFC debutante and Mullarkey will catch him cold on the biggest stage of his career.

Borralho to beat Craig; Gomis to beat Silva (+178)

Borralho will likely be the bedrock of a lot of folks parlays with his suffocating and risk-adverse style looking like a nightmare for Craig. Gomis has good value as a slight underdog, when you factor in how much more experience and size (three inch height and four inch reach advantage) he has over Silva.

Brenner vs. Orolbai Under 2.5 Rounds (+105)

I think there’s a good chance Orolbai gets the finish here. He has 70 percent takedown accuracy — far higher than anyone Brenner has ever faced in UFC. I think the bout will end up on the ground and I think both men will be going for submissions with one of them likely to get one. Between them they have 16 subs on their careers, Brener has finished almost 70 percent of his fights that way. Orolbai has finished 40 percent of his fights with submissions, including his last win.

Let’s try something different …

In this section I’d like to try tracking fight results using several metrics, some serious, others silly. It’s just for fun and not meant to be a betting guide. The two metrics I’m looking at for the next couple of weeks are “wins minus losses” and “scrabble scores.” See, I told you this was silly …

Here’s the results of UFC Vegas 91 with fighters wins-losses in parenthesis:

• Alex Perez (16) def. Matheus Nicolau (16)
• Bogdan Guskov (12) def. Ryan Spann (12)
• Karine Silva (13) def. Ariane de Silva (9)
• Jhonata Diaz (6) def. Austen Lane (8)
• David Onama (9) def. Jonathan Pearce (9)
• Uros Medic (7) def. Tim Means (17)
• Victor Henry (17) def. Rani Yahya (17)
• Austin Hubbard (8) def. Michal Figlak (7)
• Don’Tale Mayes (4) def. Caio Machado (6)
• Ketlen Souza (9) def. Marnic Mann (4)
• Chris Padilla (7) def. James Llontop (12)
• Ivana Petrovic (5) def. Na Liang (12)
• Maheshate Hayisaer (6) def. Gabriel Benitez (12)

Fighters with the highest wins-losses score went 3-6-4

And now let’s look at the scrabble scores for all the letters in their full names (as listed on Tapology):

• Alex Perez (27) def. Matheus Nicolau (21)
• Bogdan Guskov (24) def. Ryan Spann (14)
• Karine Silva (18) def. Ariane de Silva (17)
• Jhonata Diaz (31) def. Austen Lane (10)
• David Onama (17) def. Jonathan Pearce (28)
• Uros Medic (14) def. Tim Means (12)
• Victor Henry (22) def. Rani Yahya (18)
• Austin Hubbard (21) def. Michal Figlak (27)
• Don’Tale Mayes (18) def. Caio Machado (21)
• Ketlen Souza (24) def. Marnic Mann (16)
• Chris Padilla (20) def. James Llontop (23)
• Ivana Petrovic (23) def. Na Liang (8)
• Maheshate Hayisaer (31) def. Gabriel Benitez (28)

Fighters with the highest scrabble scores went 9-4.

UFC 301 Poll Time

Which of the earlier props and parlays do you like the look of the most?

What else are you liking for this event? Hit us up in the comments below.

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 301 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPN2 at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 301: “Pantoja vs. Erceg” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Middleweight finishers Michel Pereira and Ihor Potieria will throw down this weekend (Sat., May 4, 2024) inside Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, for UFC 301.

Pereira enters this bout having won seven in a row. A bit of the luster of that accomplishment is diminished by struggling to make weight and getting forced up a division, but his results at 185 pounds have been tremendous. Two wins in a combined 127 seconds — why hasn’t the Brazilian been a Middleweight this whole time?!? Meanwhile, Potieria is stepping up on short-notice for the injured Makhmud Muradov. The former Light Heavyweight is undefeated (1-0) at 185 pounds himself, having leveled up in a strong showing against hyped Polish prospect, Robert Bryczek, in his last appearance.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Michel Pereira Vs. Ihor Potieria Betting Odds

• Michel Pereira victory: -600
• Michel Pereira via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
• Michel Pereira via submission: TBD
• Michel Pereira via decision: TBD
• Ihor Potieria victory: +365
• Ihor Potieria via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
• Ihor Potieria via submission: TBD
• Ihor Potieria via decision: TBD
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Pereira Wins

Even up 15 pounds, Pereira is a serious physical force. The rangy kickboxer has big power in both his hands and feet, and he’s proven a more opportunistic submission fighter than most expected.

In his last showing, Potieria impressed with his head movement and combination punching. He’s got a bit of funk to his movement, but generally, the Ukrainian talent was able to stay in the pocket and fire back without getting hit too cleanly. Since Pereira isn’t a huge fan of extended exchanges, that could be an issue.

Fortunately, Pereira has a solution: kicks! His front kick up the middle is brutal, and it could serve as a great tool to interrupt Potieria’s stance and ability to fire back. In Pereira’s last bout, he ripped apart Michal Oleksiejczuk with gnarly body punches, which could also be a great tactic against an opponent relying on head movement.

In general, Pereira should be using his footwork to pick and choose when to exchange. He doesn’t want to get in a pure volume game opposite Potieira, but a bit of movement goes a long way in getting Potieira to walk into his counters instead of trading fairly.

How Potieria Wins

Potieria is a bit of a wild man, but perhaps Middleweight is the right home for him. He looked sharp last time out, and without a size/power disadvantage against him, Potieria was able to extend combinations and land good shots as a result.

The 27-year-old “Duelist” has finished 16 wins via stoppage.

Last time out, Potieria looked better than ever, but I expect another level up is necessary to upset Pereira. The combination punching and countering at distance were good tools, but he’s going to have to mix serious pressure into his attack to get to the rangy Brazilian. Pereira’s distance advantage is simply major.

On the bright side, Potieria does indeed have that dog in him. He’s a gamer, willing to walk through punches and kicks as necessary. Whether he’s durable enough to take Pereira’s best shots remains to be seen, but if he’s to have a chance at victory, he has to walk the kicker down and throw punches-in-bunches.

Extending the fight could also be helpful. We’ve never seen Pereira past the opening minute at Middleweight, and he gassed before at 170 pounds. If Potieria survives into the second and keeps pushing the pace, there’s always a chance Pereira’s gas tank fails him.

Pereira Vs. Potieria Prediction

For the second time in two fights, it’s hard to go against the overwhelming favorite.

Pereira is a wildcard, but it’s been a long time since he gassed and gave away a winnable fight. He’s beat up good competition consistently, and I’m not sure Potieria has even proven himself as good (at the UFC level) yet. It’s a step back because of an injured opponent, even if Potieria might have some Middleweight potential.

Plain and simple, it’s probably going to be a striking match, and Pereira just smoked a striker in Oleksiejczuk that I expect would run through Potieira. In addition, Pereira is the better kickboxer with a lot more polish to his overall game, and he’s also the one entering on a full camp.

Results are never guaranteed, but predicting fights isn’t always rocket science.

Prediction: Michel Pereira victory (-600)

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 301 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPN2 at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 301: “Pantoja vs. Erceg” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.

Ilia Topuria’s first title defense has yet to be decided.

The groundwork has been laid for a match up between the Featherweight champion and current Baddest Motherf—ker (BMF) titleholder, Max Holloway. The Hawaiian’s epic fifth round knockout win over Justin Gaethje (watch highlights) all but secured him with the option to do as he pleases going forward, which he’s made clear to be a shot at 145-pound gold.

However, Topuria has slightly changed his tune since UFC 300 earlier this month (April 13, 2024). With mentions of Brian Ortega and declining an Alexander Volkanovski rematch, according to Joe Rogan, Topuria isn’t starting on the best foot as champion, believes Daniel Cormier.

“Ilia Topuria is the champ, and as the champ, at times, you have some say into who you’re going to fight, when you’re going to fight him, when you’re ready, and all of that,” Cormier said on his YouTube channel (h/t MMA Fighting). “I don’t know, though, if he has as much say in this as he thinks he does.

“Max Holloway to me is clearly the guy, [but] if not, [it’s] Alexander Volkanovski. Max told me that,” he continued. “Him and I spoke personally, and he goes, ‘I thought Volk was going to get a rematch. How in the world does he not get a rematch?’ This is coming from the guy that’s waiting for the title fight. But he recognizes, ‘Look, man, this dude beat me three times, long-reigning champion, if anyone deserves an immediate rematch, it’s this guy.’”

Topuria, 27, defeated Volkanovski to become the champion via a second round knockout at UFC 298 this past February 2024 (watch highlights). For Holloway, his title reign at 145 pounds ended at the hands of Volkanovski in December 2019, who defeated him in their following two match ups. “Blessed” has only been bested by Volkanovski at Featherweight since 2013.

As a former two-division champion, Cormier has some advice for “El Matador.”

“I think Ilia Topuria needs to come right out and say, ‘Hey, I want Max Holloway on this date,’” Cormier said. “Then it would be on Max. … Because now, Max is the guy — and sure he has the BMF title — but he wants the Featherweight championship. Ilia has that. When Ilia says, ‘I want this fight on this date,’ Max will have to say, ‘Okay,’ or he will say no and they will move on.

“And then Ilia Topuria, at that point, can then start to go, ‘I don’t want to fight him,” he continued. “He had his chance, he could’ve did it then, he didn’t want to play by the rules.’ He has to make a statement saying, ‘This is what I want as the champ,’ and then put the ball in Max’s court to deny it. But right now, it’s not coming off great, because he’s batting away all of these guys with no clear idea of who else there is.”

Jiri Prochazka would make a wild addition to Ultimate Fighting Championship’s (UFC) Middleweight division.

To the surprise of many, the former Light Heavyweight champion expressed his interest in changing weight classes after his recent second round technical knockout of Aleksandar Rakic (watch highlights) at UFC 300 earlier this month (April 13, 2024). Ideally, Prochazka hopes to win back the title he lost from injury in late 2022.

Hearing Prochazka’s intentions, former Middleweight champion, Robert Whittaker, isn’t so keen on the prospect.

“I hope he doesn’t,” Whittaker said on his MMArcade Podcast (h/t MMA Junkie) of Prochazka possibly moving down in division. “I really hope he doesn’t. I like the guy a lot, but if he enters the Middleweight division, then we’re enemies. That’s just the nature of the game. They’re all enemies, except for my teammates.”

Whittaker is inching his way back towards a title shot of his own as he’ll next battle Khamzat Chimaev at UFC Saudi Arabia on June 22, 2024. While he can’t imagine someone the size of Prochazka at 185 pounds, “The Reaper” believes it’s achievable.

“I can’t see him at [Middleweight],” Whittaker said. “I’ve seen him in real life. I’ve been up close with him, and he’s big, dude. It’s not just his physical size. He’s got a big frame. Wide shoulders. He’s really tall. He’s 6-foot-4, but he’s a big, big guy. I think he has the mentalities to get [down in weight]. Don’t get me wrong.

“If he wants to get to Middleweight, he’ll do it,” he concluded. “Whether or not it would be a good move, it’s hard to say. He’s smashing it at Light Heavy, and he’s said he’s still got goals there. Stay at Light Heavyweight so we can stay friends.”