Filed under: UFC
Brock Lesnar has only been in the UFC for three-and-a-half years, yet he’s already had a pair of one-year layoffs in his short career. His second will come to an end on Dec. 30, when he faces Alistair Overeem at UFC 141. By that time, Lesnar will have been on the sidelines for 26 of his 43 months on the UFC roster due to a pair of bouts with diverticulitis.
Lesnar has always been a physical marvel, but you have to wonder at what point those wonders will cease. It was amazing when Lesnar signed with the UFC after one pro fight and captured the heavyweight title within 10 months. It was stunning when he returned from his first bout with diverticulitis to withstand a ferocious first-round beating at the hands of Shane Carwin and rebound with a win.
But at some point, it seems likely that his inactivity, advancing age and opponent level will no longer be surmountable obstacles.
That’s not to say that the 34-year-old Lesnar can’t beat Overeem on Dec. 30. In fact, the early line on the fight saw the matchup as a pick ’em. On the other hand, Lesnar has reportedly not done any training since bowing out of a scheduled bout with Junior dos Santos back in early May.
Despite his pedigree as a former UFC champion, it has become painfully clear in Lesnar’s last two fights that he has shortcomings that need to be addressed. In particular, his striking and comfort level in the standup game have been trouble spots for him.
Both Shane Carwin and Cain Velasquez badly battered Lesnar in the standup portion of their respective fights with Lesnar. The only difference in the bouts was that Velasquez was able to find a finish while Carwin couldn’t.
Unfortunately for Lesnar, Overeem might be the scariest striker of the three. At 6-foot-5 and 260 pounds, he is at least the physically imposing equal of Lesnar, with a cartoon superhero build. He also happens to have an extensive kickboxing record, including success at the highest level as a winner of the K-1 World Grand Prix.
Among Overeem’s best weapons are his knees in the clinch, but he’s dangerous with his hands as well, and Lesnar has not reacted well under the fire of top strikers.
Overeem’s powerful strikes are also a disincentive to shoot for a takedown, which is a crucial part of Lesnar’s game. Lesnar’s inability to take the fight down or keep it down hurt him in both the Carwin and Velasquez matchups.
Against Carwin, he went 0-for-3 in the first round as Carwin out-struck him 57-15 and nearly finished him. Against Velasquez, he did manage a takedown in one of his two tries, but could only hold the fight down for a flash before Velasquez returned to his feet and overwhelmed Lesnar in the standup.
Unlike Carwin and Velasquez, Overeem does not have a wrestling pedigree, but he has historically exhibited strong takedown defense. According to FightMetric, he’s stuffed 76 percent of takedown tries against him. Of course, it must also be noted that Overeem has never faced anyone with Lesnar’s wrestling pedigree. At any rate, Overeem is probably experienced enough to stop a takedown without a setup. And given Lesnar’s fairly basic striking game, Overeem might not have a great deal of difficulty seeing his setups coming.
The more worrisome fact for Lesnar is his prolonged inactivity. Given the fact that Lesnar hasn’t been in the gym for months, how much time has he really had to correct his problems and improve his striking game?
Lesnar has surprised us before with his aptitude for the game and his fairly immediate success, but you have to wonder if this time, he bit off more than he can chew. It is a gamble with a great potential reward; the winner gets a UFC heavyweight championship opportunity. But it’s also a risk of the highest order. After a second one-year layoff, his body has only three months to get into fighting shape and prepare for one of the best heavyweight strikers in the world. If he can’t put the fight on the ground, he’ll likely have no solution.
Aura only lasts for so long. In fight sports, it erodes with each loss. Lesnar still moves the needle in the national sports conversation — one of the few MMA fighters to do so. But there are already plenty of doubters.
Let it be said that his courage is in no doubt. Off the injury list, he took the toughest available fight, and asked for no extra time to prepare. Lesnar has asked for no quarter, and he’ll get none. If he wins, it’s another epic chapter in an already amazing story. But if he loses, his supporters don’t get to use his illness as an excuse for another bad performance.
If he loses for the second time in a row, what then?