UFC 188 will mark the rarest of occurrences for MMA fans: A Cain Velasquez sighting. The heavyweight champion will return to action to unify his belt with Fabricio Werdum‘s interim title for the first time since he defeated Junior dos Santos in October 2013.
As great as Velasquez has been throughout his career, injuries have always nagged the champion. A knee injury and shoulder issues were the latest cause for a long layoff. In total, the champ has fought just 14 times in a nine-year career.
Since Velasquez’s last fight, Werdum has done a lot to prove he’s among the elites in the division. The former ADCC Submission Wrestling Gold Medalist has proved that he’s not only a jiu-jitsu wiz, but a devastating striker with a decision win over Travis Browne and TKO victory over Mark Hunt.
But is that enough to give him a shot against Velasquez? Oddsmakers don’t think so. According to Odds Shark, Vai Cavalo comes in as a 4-1 underdog, while Velasquez is a 2-11 favorite to retain.
Here’s a look at the key for each fighter as they look to have Dana White wrap the undisputed heavyweight championship belt around their waist.
Werdum: Be Aggressive Early, Stay at Range
The last time Velasquez faced a long layoff was his first title defense. Fresh off a stunning dismantling of Brock Lesnar, the champion fought Junior dos Santos in front of a national audience on Fox nearly 13 months later.
That did not go well. JDS landed a vicious overhand right that put the champion on the mat. And a new champion was crowned.
Obviously, Velasquez went on to fight Dos Santos twice more and won each in increasingly convincing fashion. But the question remains: How much did the layoff impact him the first time around?
Clearly, a layoff didn’t throw the punch. Credit has to be given to Dos Santos for throwing the massive right hand. There is something to the notion that the impact was greater because Velasquez hadn’t fought in a long time.
It’s a thought that Werdum needs to put to the fight early. Javier Mendez, Velasquez’s longtime trainer, even admitted there will be some element of rust when his fighter enters the cage. “There is going to be some ring rust,” Mendez said, as reported by Ben Fowlkes of MMAjunkie. “That’s just a fact. It’s a question of how much, and it’s going to be very little in Cain’s case.”
That’s a question that Werdum needs to test early on. With the latest displays of power he’s put on in his knockout win over Hunt, there’s at least a chance he could repeat history with a big shot early on.
However, if he can’t be fortuitous enough to crack Velasquez, pressuring the pressure fighter might not be the best of ideas. As Reed Kuhn of Fightnomics highlights, Werdum actually has a very effective jab compared to his opponent’s:
Titles collide in the #UFC188 main event. These two guys have wrecked people on the way here: http://t.co/1oEcr8lUm2 pic.twitter.com/qfvVIv0aY1
— Fightnomics Reed (@Fightnomics) June 12, 2015
Velasquez’s greatest strength lies in his ability to wear opponents down in the clinch. He will stand and trade if he has to, but he’s most comfortable in the clinch, where he can work takedowns and ultimately overwhelm opponents with volume.
However, simply throwing the jab won’t be enough for Vai Cavalo. As seen in the video below, Antonio Minotauro Nogueira tried to utlitize the jab to keep Velasquez at bay, but he didn’t bring another punch with it to throw a combination and didn’t use an angle to get out of range.
He quickly found the canvas:
Werdum’s ground game is as advanced as they come in the heavyweight division. However, grappling with someone as strong and violent on the ground as Velasquez is a risky proposition. If Werdum can use his recently polished striking to turn this into a pure kickboxing match, he’s going to be able to test Velasquez’s cardio after his long layoff.
Velasquez: Trust the Process, Close the Distance
Simply put, Cain Velasquez is a better fighter than Fabricio Werdum.
At this point, Velasquez knows who he is as a fighter. He’s a relentless cardio machine who continues to apply pressure on whoever is in front of him until they crumble.
While there might be a temptation for him to ease into things and feel his opponent out, that’s not what got him to this stage in his career. His immense, overwhelming volume did. According to FightMetric, only Jessica Andrade lands more significant strikes per minute.
For reference, Andrade is in the women’s bantamweight division. That means Velasquez is second in volume only to a 135-pound fighter. A look at the top 10 reveals no other heavyweights (Fabio Maldonado spent 35 seconds in the division getting knocked out by Stipe Miocic).
Velasquez’s ability to outwork his opponents comes from swarming clinch and top games, not from standing in prolonged kickboxing bouts.
Establishing that pace should be priority No. 1. And at least one pundit believes Velasquez will have no problem getting off to a hot start. Josh Gross pointed out that the Mexico crowd could benefit the Mexican-American in the opening frame:
Staredown had me clapping at my desk. Cain Velasquez looked a mean 242. Cain has the crowd, no doubt. Huge cheers. He’ll come out fast.
— Josh Gross (@yay_yee) June 12, 2015
There is one caveat to Velasquez’s usual process of slowly pulverizing his opponents. Takedowns will need to wind up in advantageous positions that are not the guard of Werdum. Vai Cavalo has earned this title shot by tuning up his stand-up game, but he’s still the man who submitted Nogueira.
Then again, it all comes down to Velasquez doing what Velasquez does best. Pressure. If Werdum is defending a constant stream of passes, transitions and strikes, it’s that much more difficult to latch on to an arm, choke or other appendage and draw the tap.
Essentially, as long as the same Velasquez that mauled Dos Santos back at UFC 166 shows up, this will just be another chapter in his slow-growing resume of greatness.
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