The UFC light heavyweight division has undergone a drastic change this year, but in many ways it is set up better to sell Saturday’s main event at UFC 192 between light heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier and challenger Alexander Gustafsson.
Even though Jon Jones was supposed to lead the division into the future, Cormier and Gustafsson aren’t bad alternatives. The champion has a 16-1 career record, with his only loss coming against Jones at UFC 182, and has been terrific since moving down to 205 pounds (3-1, two submissions).
Gustafsson became a star following his 2013 title fight against Jones, a five-round unanimous-decision loss in which he took the champion to the mat and displayed incredible power and precision with his striking.
However, Gustafsson has to rebuild his stock following a January loss against Anthony Johnson in which he was knocked out for the first time in his career. It’s not an ideal scenario to throw a contender into a title fight, but the 28-year-old certainly has the talent to give Cormier a challenge.
Cormier Highlights, Strategy
As the tale of the tape shows, Cormier is at a height and reach disadvantage. The 36-year-old is short and stocky, but he has evolved his style in such a way that makes him one of the most dangerous fighters regardless of weight class.
There also are few fighters who can claim to be as tough. Looking at highlights from Cormier‘s last fight against Johnson in May, via UFC on Fox, the first thing that jumps out is his ability to take a punch:
Johnson’s right hook catches Cormier square in the head and stuns him, yet the champion is able to keep his composure long enough to avoid letting Rumble get on top of him for an early finish.
It’s not like Johnson lacks power, as 14 of his 20 career victories have come by (T)KO, making Cormier‘s ability to recover from that moment even more impressive.
That will serve Cormier well heading into Saturday’s matchup with Gustafsson, who is another fighter seeking to brawl with anything that stands in his way.
Speaking to reporters, via Michael Martinez of UFC.com, Cormier left no doubt about his conviction in being able to match Gustafsson‘s ability to strike:
I believe I can box with (Gustafsson). There are ways to win fights, and sometimes you don’t always choose the easiest way to win. If it’s a boxing fight with Alex, I can hold my own. I believe I’ll be able to get on the inside with him. I believe that my hands are just as fast, if not faster, and I believe that I’ll hit with more power than he does. If it’s a stand-up fight, sure, why not? I’d enjoy that.
The other item from the highlight package that jumps out is Cormier‘s power. Immediately after it shows the punch, the cut jumps to Cormier carrying Johnson on his back before slamming him into the mat.
That particular highlight also leads into an area where Cormier can shine, even though he doesn’t use it as often as he once did: wrestling.
Cormier is a world-class wrestler who won gold medals at the 2002 Pan American Championships and 2003 Pan American Games and started his MMA career as more of a mat technician.
Being able to develop as a striker has taken Cormier to the level he’s currently at, holding the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship. He’s got great defense against striking and grappling, forcing opponents into frustration before taking his big chance to end the match.
Gustafsson Highlights, Strategy
When your nickname is The Mauler, there’s no sense trying to dance around what you want to do. Gustafsson does actually have three submissions under his belt, though none have come since 2011.
It’s hard to take issue with Gustafsson‘s strategy of just trying to pummel opponents into the mat. There aren’t many fighters in the 205-pound weight class who can match his combination of size (6’5″) and reach (79″).
Highlight packages are built to show the best aspects of any given athlete, but they can also be illuminating in the proper context.
For instance, look at this two-minute package put together by UFC Undisputed featuring Gustafsson:
It’s all standing and striking all the time, but look around the 85-second mark for the highlight from Gustafsson‘s showdown with Jones. Jones attempts to come in for a strike that is blocked, leaving Gustafsson little time and space to build impact for a counterpunch.
But because Gustafsson is so strong, his right hand connects square on Jones’ left cheek and would have been enough to drop most fighters. That kind of force with so little reaction time is unique and special.
If there is one fighter in UFC who defines true one-punch knockout power, it’s Gustafsson. His strategy against Cormier will be critical, though he told Elias Cepeda of Fox Sports he’s not afraid of getting into a wrestling match:
He is a high-caliber guy and I can’t compare myself to Jon Jones and other fighters, because we’re totally different fighters and different fighters make different fights. But I’ve done my homework. If he wants to wrestle, I’ll be ready to wrestle. If he wants to strike, I’ll be ready to strike. I’ll have an answer for whatever happens. He’ll probably take me down once or two times but I’ll get up. I’m ready to go toe-to-toe with Daniel Cormier. I’m ready.
As confident as Gustafsson sounds, it veers into hubris because he’s not a wrestler or mat technician. There are certainly matches in which he’s worked on the ground, but going against a superior all-around fighter isn’t going to make it easy to bounce right back up.
Given Gustafsson‘s size advantage, it’s in Cormier‘s best interest to make this a mat fight. Gustafsson does have strong takedown defense, but he seemed to acknowledge there’s going to be moments when the fight is on the ground.
Once things get on the mat, Cormier can stay on top and force Gustafsson to overextend himself and waste stamina just trying to get up. That will inhibit his power later in the fight, making it essential for the Swedish star to try ending things before the championship rounds.
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