Look beneath the surface of UFC 239’s televised prelims, featuring the return of former Strikeforce champion Gilbert Melendez, looking to halt the momentum of British juggernaut Arnold Allen.
The ESPN prelims of UFC 239 are a mixed bag, largely due a huge degree of uncertainty in the fighters on the card. An evaluation like that usually means there are a lot of untested prospects on the card. That isn’t the case here. Gilbert Melendez and Claudia Gadelha, two former title contenders, have both experienced a severe decline from their peak. At this point, no one knows just how good they are anymore. Melendez tests an up-and-coming Arnold Allen while Gadelha gets a more established veteran in Randa Markos. I can’t sell these contests as must-see with confidence, so I won’t endorse them. However, I also won’t tell you to skip them. I’ll leave that up to you.
The ESPN prelims begin at 8:00 PM ET/5:00 PM PT on Saturday.
Gilbert Melendez (22-7) vs. Arnold Allen (14-1), Featherweight
Did you know it has been almost six years since Melendez won a fight? Yep. It was that all-time classic with Diego Sanchez. Since then, Melendez has been on the wrong side of every contest since. Even worse, the last two contests haven’t even been close, being pieced up by Edson Barboza and Jeremy Stephens. While Melendez may not have the number of fights under his belt as someone like Donald Cerrone, he has been a professional since 2002 and had several grueling contests in that time. The miles have caught up to the all-time great. Melendez recognized this and stepped away from the sport almost completely for an extended time, rediscovering his love for the sport in the process and claims he’s re-energized to make an impact.
When Melendez was in his prime, he was one of the best boxers in the sport, establishing his jab early before expanding upon his diverse arsenal. I’m not just talking about straights, hooks, or uppercuts either. Melendez would masterfully work in low kicks and wrestling with great aplomb too. As the contest continued, he’d attack where he found his opponent to be most vulnerable. Though a good athlete, Melendez was never an elite athlete and struggled when he lost some of those gifts once in the UFC. Thus, he struggled to close the distance against Barboza and couldn’t get untracked when Stephens attacked his base early and never let up. Melendez is one of the smartest fighters in the sport and has long possessed one of the toughest beards. Is that enough anymore?
Allen is on the opposite end of the spectrum. It isn’t that he’s stupid, but he’s determined to prove to critics that he’s well-rounded, leading to many contests where he isn’t doing the things he does best. It hasn’t cost him yet as the sculpted Brit is insanely strong and almost as athletic. However, he’s been drawing a thinner line with every contest, engaging in a striking battle with Jordan Rinaldi when he should have been able to overwhelm him in a wrestling battle. You’d think it would be doubtful he’ll approach the contest with Melendez in a similar manner, but it’s not like anyone can guarantee that.
I really want to pick Allen. He’s young. He’s hungry. He’s got all the physical tools to be something special. However, he was also unimpressive in putting away Rinaldi. Now he’s going to overthrow an all-time great like Melendez? Granted, Melendez isn’t what he once was, but Melendez also hasn’t been losing to nobodies either. Melendez’s smarts and Allen’s questionable takedown defense still has me leaning in favor of the former Strikeforce champion. A part of me feels like I’m making a terrible decision, but that’s what adds up in my head. Melendez via decision
Claudia Gadelha (16-4) vs. Randa Markos (9-6-1), Women’s Strawweight
Gadelha’s decline isn’t as pronounced as Melendez’s – she does have five wins since Melendez last secured one – but it is noticeable from the time she was challenging Joanna Jedrzejczyk for the title. Nonetheless, she has looked sluggish on the feet in her last few contests. How sluggish? UFC stats have her being outstruck in significant strikes in her last three contests by a combined total of 280 to 117. Gadelha has never been known for her stamina – part of the reason why for the massive striking disparity – but even that has suffered as of late. She can still fall back on her world class BJJ and is double tough – she’s never been finished in her career – but those characteristics aren’t enough if she hopes to remain amongst the elite.
Markos can’t hope to match Gadelha’s strength – few can – but there is no doubt she’ll be the fresher of the two once/if the fight goes into deep waters. Markos is also coming off the best performance of her career, grounding Angela Hill in a hurry and twisting her into knots before eliciting a tap. However, Markos is also one of the most inconsistent fighters on the roster, continually struggling to build off her previous momentum. Nonetheless, Markos has improved on the feet and is an excellent scrambler. She has got herself into some bad spots before in those situations, so a sub from Gadelha doesn’t appear to be a long shot despite Markos’ own solid mat credentials.
This is make-or-break for both fighters. Gadelha needs to prove she can dispose of a tough veteran like Markos in order to maintain credibility to be even a high level gatekeeper. Markos needs a win to prove she can move up to the level Gadelha previously was at. Expect Gadelha to start out strong and fade, as usual. The question is whether her fade happens so early that she gives away the middle round. I say it does as Markos always pushes a hard pace. She takes the decision based on her activity level. Markos via decision
As for the rest….
- Marlon Vera had a much more interesting opponent on his hands before Sean O’Malley popped for PED’s – again – and forced an opponent switch onto the uber-tough Ecuadorian. Thus, Vera welcomes a youngster in Nohelin Hernandez to the Octagon. The lanky 25-year old likes to capitalize on his long limbs by swarming his opposition with a tirade of strikes. He isn’t the most technical striker though, so an experienced striker wouldn’t have too many problems countering him. Vera is a powerful counter striker who also has an affinity for kicking his opponent upside the head. Hernandez has a chance to steal the win if the contest goes the distance since Vera still has issues with volume, but he also has an innate ability to find the finish, one way or another. Vera via TKO of RD2
- Alejandro Perez came up short when given a definitive step up in competition against Cody Stamann, dashing his seven-fight undefeated streak. The well-rounded Mexican doesn’t have any standout skills, but without any major weaknesses, he’s not exactly a walk in the park either. That type of skill set makes him an ideal gatekeeper, a role that he fulfilled very well prior to getting his shot at Stamann. He returns to that role to provide the stiffest test in the young career of 21-year old Yadong Song. The youthful Chinese export is a physical specimen who pushes an insane pace to the point that he can’t help but get tired late even though he’s well-conditioned. Perez isn’t exactly chinny, but he can be finished. I’d expect Song to overwhelm him at some point. Song via TKO of RD1