Get the scoop on UFC Austin’s main card, featuring a lightweight contest between Texas native James Vick and the eternally youthful Francisco Trinaldo.
Though the main card took a small hit when Jessica Aguilar was forced to withdraw from the event due to injury – cancelling the debut of former Invicta champion Livia Renata Souza in the process – there are still some solid contests on UFC Austin. It could be argued the contests outside of the main and co-main event for this card are more PPV quality than the bouts on UFC 221 last week. James Vick and Francisco Trinaldo may just barely register in the official UFC rankings, but it needs to be remembered what a shark tank lightweight is. Plus, Thiago Alves is still capable of providing glimpses of his former self. You know…the one who once challenged Georges St-Pierre for the welterweight title. There may not be much narrative to this card, but it has some quality fights for sure.
The main card of UFC Austin begins at 9:00 PM ET/6:00 PM PT on Sunday.
James Vick (12-1) vs. Francisco Trinaldo (22-5), Lightweight
Vick made a stink about getting on this show and rightfully so as he is from the Austin, Texas area. He did have a problem finding an opponent that would offer an acceptably competitive contest for quite a while, leaving a major concern whether he’d end up on the card. Thankfully for us, Trinaldo stepped up and it all worked out.
One of the tallest lightweights in the organization at 6’3” – if not the tallest – Vick has made steady progress to accentuate his reach. It isn’t just his jab that he’s made good use of; he uses front kicks with regularity too. However, Vick’s most effective strike has been his counter uppercut, using it to brutalize Joseph Duffy in his last contest among others. He’s capable of putting together effective punching combinations too as he continues to progress.
Trinaldo is a physical wonder, putting together the best run of his career in his late 30’s. There was concern he may have been slowing down following his loss to Kevin Lee, only for him to look revitalized in his victory over Jim Miller. One of the longtime complaints against Trinaldo has been his shallow gas tank. Against Miller, Trinaldo was the one getting stronger the deeper the fight went. His punching combinations often appear wild and sloppy, but his accuracy has improved as time has gone by, proving the effectiveness of his janky punches time and again. His stocky frame has also proven to be useful in the clinch, using elbows and knees to cut up the opposition.
Despite neither fighter having much of an inclination to take the fight to the ground, that could prove to be a major difference maker. Trinaldo has made better use of hitting takedowns for a change of pace and has shown a proclivity for arm triangle chokes. Vick is even less likely to go to the ground than Trinaldo, though his takedown defense has received some attention due to his proclivity for catching opponents in a guillotine choke as they shoot on him.
A fantastic contest, this is a tough contest to call. I’ve gone against Trinaldo before on multiple occasions thinking age would have caught up to him by now. Clearly, I’ve been wrong. Regardless, I’m picking against him here as Vick appears to be motivated to put on a good performance in his home state in addition to his constant improvement. Regardless, I’m expecting a hell of a contest. Vick via submission, RD2
Thiago Alves (22-11) vs. Curtis Millender (14-3), Welterweight
Scheduled to compete against Zak Cummings a month ago before a freak weight-cutting injury forced Cummings out, Alves wanted to be rescheduled in a hurry and got his wish. One of the elite welterweights of the world before injuries and general wear-and-tear caught up to him, Alves is still a very dangerous striker. Sure, the fearless aggression that overwhelmed opponent after opponent during his seven-fight win streak from 2006-09 has disappeared, but that isn’t necessarily a bad thing as Alves is no longer the athletic freak he was during that time. Regardless of his physical decline, his low kicks are still among the best in MMA.
Millender may be stepping up on short notice to make his UFC debut, but don’t mistake his lack of UFC experience as a reason to overlook him. Millender is huge for welterweight, clocking in at 6’2” with a 78” reach. His favorite strike is his seemingly effortless high kick, which he throws almost as frequently as some competitors throw their jab. Millender has some serious power, and not just in his kicks – though his last two wins have come via head kicks – but in his fists too. His wrestling and ground game still have a lot of questions to be answered, but he’s improved his ability to climb back to his feet.
Given Alves has been in the UFC since 2005, it’s a surprise he’s still only 34. However, Alves’ inability to get in the cage has left a huge mystery to what version of him we see. He was getting pieced up by Jordan Mein before a single kick put down the Canadian. He couldn’t avoid being taken down by Jim Miller, but dominated Patrick Cote with a diverse attack, including a dominant showing in the brief time he took the fight to the mat.
Not knowing what Alves will show up makes this difficult to predict. Millender usually allows opponents to dictate the pace, but is comfortable either way so long as he can launch a steady stream of kicks. If Millender is to make a move, the time is now as he is already 30 years old. Taking the fight on short notice could count against him, but it could also be seen as Alves having an extended training camp. Neither situation is very good. I’ll go with the more established talent, but I won’t be surprised by the upset. Alves via decision
Steven Peterson (16-6) vs. Brandon Davis (8-4), Featherweight
When word got out Humberto Bandenay wouldn’t be able to get his visa issues in order for his fight with Peterson, it didn’t take long for Davis to step in and save the day. Coming off a disappointing UFC debut a month ago in which his trademark aggression wasn’t in full force, don’t expect a repeat performance from Davis. His dance partner, Peterson, will surely meet Davis on preferable terms in the pocket and clinch. Though he lacks polish, Davis’ grit makes outwrestling or landing more volume than him a tough proposition…provided you give him the fight he wants.
Peterson has been facing top level opposition on the regional scene for about five years, proving to be as tough and scrappy as they come. Though he’s not afraid to stay in the pocket and trade punches, Peterson’s true strength is on the ground where his active guard and knack for finding a neck in scrambles. Submissions aren’t the only thing he’s adept at, as his ground-and-pound ability is worth mentioning as well. Peterson isn’t purely a brawler on the feet either as he has a nice jab for feeling out his range.
This is an interesting clash between two alumni of the Contender’s Series. Davis won a contract from the show while Peterson lost a very close decision before winning one more bout on the regional scene to make it to the big dance. Regardless of how they made it here, it’s a very close contest. It’s hard to say how well Davis’ weight cut will go given the short notice of this contest for him. Peterson’s overall edge in experience should also help him to weather whatever storm Davis throws at him. Peterson via submission, RD2
Sage Northcutt (9-2) vs. Thibault Gouti (11-3), Lightweight
MMA fan’s favorite whipping boy returns! Despite receiving far more attention than his track record warrants as Uncle Dana pushed him into the spotlight before he was ready, it is worth noting that Northcutt is still undefeated at lightweight. Then again, his most notable win is Michel Quinones. If you’re asking who that is, then my point is perfectly proven. If you know who Quinones is, my point is still proven. Nonetheless, Northcutt has shown growth in his overall game, mixing in powerful takedowns with his potent jab, a recent addition to his game. It’s worth noting he still has his deep kicking arsenal to fall back on, though it has rarely been seen in recent contests. Did I mention the kid is a freak athlete too?
It may have taken four attempts, but Gouti finally picked up his first UFC victory over Andrew Holbrook last fall. The French striker has some solid power and slick combinations. What he lacks is much of a wrestling game or the athletic ability to evade those who do. Those shortcomings are why it took so long for him to pick up his first UFC victory. He’s made a point to focus on takedown defense, but it has also made him eminently more hittable in the process.
The UFC knows it needs to continue to spoon feed Northcutt. Given how much time and money they’ve already spent on the youngster, there’s no way they are going to set him up to fail. Northcutt has shown some grit to survive getting hit in the face. Thus, he should be able to hang with Gouti on the feet should Gouti piece him up a bit. Northcutt’s recent improvements in his wrestling provides him with the dimension he needs to overwhelm Gouti. Northcutt via decision