Get the scoop on UFC Belem’s televised prelims, featuring a welterweight scrap between Tim Means and Sergio Moraes, plus reputable finisher Marlon Vera.
Typically, I try to point out which contests feature prospects worth keeping an eye on. Well… there really isn’t anything worth pointing out for UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders. Some may say Marlon Vera, but he’s had seven fights in the UFC already. I’m not saying he isn’t going to continue to improve, but can he be labeled a prospect anymore after that many contests?
Perhaps I’d point out a potential barnburner… but there isn’t a fight that is guaranteed to be can’t-miss. Some would say Tim Means is good for action and they’d be right. But his dance partner, Sergio Moraes, has a tendency of turning in curious performances. Basically, he makes it impossible to make any guarantees for what type of fight we’ll get. I’m not sure what to tell you about this portion of the card. It isn’t bad, but it isn’t notable either.
The televised prelims begin on FS2 at 8:00 PM ET/5:00 PM PT on Saturday
Sergio Moraes (12-4-1) vs. Tim Means (27-9-1, 1 NC), Welterweight
Despite clocking in at 35 years old, Moraes is still a plus athlete with world class BJJ skills. He has the BJJ world titles to prove it. However, he lacks much connective tissue in his striking to launch himself into the upper echelon of the division. That doesn’t mean Moraes isn’t dangerous on the feet. He has some natural power and his janky style can still catch opponents off-guard. If the fight remains standing, Moraes is better off in close quarters where he better stands to outmuscle Means with his large frame while also being able to threaten with a trip takedown.
Means has consistently been one of the more entertaining members of the welterweight division. As dangerous as anyone this side of Matt Brown in the clinch, Means’ elbows in short distances pose a challenge for the Brazilian should Moraes try to close the distance. From the outside, Means has developed a steady jab and a high volume of low kicks. Means doesn’t stay on the outside for long as he tends to move forward with great frequency. He’s made a point at times to show opponents – and the media – that he has a ground game, though it’s unlikely he’ll want to test it out against Moraes.
This contest boils down to one simple question: Can Moraes get Means to the ground? Means has struggled with larger opponents with a decent submission game. Moraes is not only large, he’s exceptionally dangerous on the ground. However, Moraes tends to be too choosy about his takedown attempts and often telegraphs his shots when he does shoot for them. Means’ toughness and durability leaves me doubting Moraes can finish him with strikes. As Moraes tends to fade down the stretch, Means’ volume and fast pace lead to a decision win or late stoppage. Means via TKO of RD3
Alan Patrick (14-1) vs. Damir Hadzovic (11-3), Lightweight
It’s been more than a minute since we last saw Patrick. In fact, it’s been over 16 months when he grinded out Stevie Ray in a largely forgettable contest. Not the type of style you’d expect with the athletic gifts possessed by Patrick, but it also makes sense when considering Patrick’s lack of defensive technique on the feet. In fact, Patrick’s standup game largely consists of him darting in and out of range as he tries to take advantage of his long limbs. Should he decide to keep the fight standing, it often results in a low output contest as he is incapable of stringing together his strikes in combination.
On the flip side, Hadzovic will look to keep the fight standing at all costs. A low output striker himself, Hadzovic has shown explosive power in his fists and stupendous timing on the counter. If Patrick concedes to give Hadzovic the time and space, the Bosnian’s use of angles and technique will ensure Patrick is in for a very long night. However, Hadzovic has shown a tendency to get dragged to the ground with little resistance. While Marcin Held is a better wrestler than most give him credit for, there is no reason Hadzovic shouldn’t have been able to stuff at least one takedown.
Patrick isn’t stupid. He knows Hadzovic wants to play face-punchy and he’s been content to shoot for the takedowns with every opponent hoping to do that. Hadzovic’s raw power could end up catching the Brazilian before the night is out, but seeing Patrick getting and holding Hadzovic down seems like the most likely course of action… as much as we’d all rather see something else. Patrick via decision
Douglas Silva de Andrade (24-2, 1 NC) vs. Marlon Vera (10-4-1), Bantamweight
Vera has proven to be quite the conundrum. An explosive striker with huge power in his kicks, Vera tends to get outgrappled and pieced up by his opponent only to pull a surprise submission or a bone-jarring blast out of nowhere. Fortunately for him, his durability has made that a more successful strategy than anyone would ever have guessed thanks to his unparalleled killer instinct. Whether it’s a spinning wheel kick, an armbar from the guard, or a flying knee, Vera is a danger at all times.
De Andrade represents both the ideal matchup as well as the nightmare matchup for Vera. A hard hitter with a tendency for stalking his opponent, de Andrade relies heavily on pressure to force his opponent to swing at him in hopes of landing a powerful counter. Though he appears to be stiff, de Andrade uses janky movement to throw off his opponents from getting his timing down. However, he can be frustrated when things aren’t going his way and he’s not much of a grappler.
Given Vera’s issues to put together consistent volume, he’s going to struggle to win a decision, especially given de Andrade’s excellent timing. However, Vera seems to show something new in every contest with a rare opportunistic nature. He’ll find an opening at some point… he always seems to. Vera via KO of RD3
Iuri Alcantara (34-9, 1 NC) vs. Joe Soto (18-6), Bantamweight
Alcantara has been a fixture of the lighter weight divisions ever since the UFC integrated what was left of the WEC in 2010. However, it appears he is nearing the end of the line as he has dropped consecutive fights for the first time in his nearly 15-year career. Perhaps the concern over whether he is slipping or not wouldn’t be so great, but when the losses come to Brian Kelleher and Alejandro Perez – two opponents he would have bowled over in his prime – the apprehension is deserved.
Soto is coming off a disappointing loss of his own, succumbing to a calf slicer from Brett Johns a mere 30 seconds into their contest. Prior to that, he had won three in a row in convincing manner, erasing the three losses he suffered upon his UFC entry.
Soto is your typical gatekeeping veteran in that he’s well-rounded enough to be good at everything, but great at nothing. He mixes together good kick-punch combinations, but lacks much power. His wrestling is technical, but like his striking, lacks explosion. Soto also possesses a nice submission arsenal, though he has also gotten himself into trouble at times for his willingness to execute of his back.
Alcantara is a far greater threat to put an early end to a contest at any time thanks to his explosion and athleticism. However, he is now 37 and the flashes of decline that have been apparent for the last few years. Never a high volume striker, his pace has slowed even more. Regardless, he’s still capable of eating a lot of punishment and has still shown just enough left in the tank to surprise. However, much like Soto, Alcantara is a creative and dangerous submission artist.
While I won’t be surprised to see Alcantara find a way to put away Soto as Soto has enough holes in his defenses, it would be unwise to pick him. Alcantara’s flashes of offense have been on the decline and Soto’s consistent pace and volume will likely be too much for the aging Brazilian to overcome. Soto via decision