Look under the hood of UFC San Antonio’s early scraps, featuring a pivotal women’s bantamweight contest with rising Irene Aldana looking to push past longtime mainstay Raquel Pennington up the ladder.
The injury bug has been prominent on several UFC cards recently. For instance, last week’s card in Sacramento had six fights canceled or altered due to injury. This week’s card in San Antonio has been unscathed by the dreaded injury bug, the lone altered contest coming from one of the participants being rescheduled into a title fight. And yet, despite the lack of change, it feels like this card – particularly the prelims – is underwhelming.
Perhaps I expected the undercard to look awesome knowing it’s appearing on ESPN – not ESPN+ — and I expected the UFC to load up a bit more for a national TV audience. Nope. Instead, UFC San Antonio’s prelims feel very comparable to last week’s prelims from Sacramento. Judge this card how you felt about last week’s card. If you enjoyed it, tune in. If not, don’t say I told you it was going to be awesome.
The prelims begin on ESPN at 6:00 PM ET/3:00 PM PT on Saturday.
Raquel Pennington (9-7) vs. Irene Aldana (10-4), Women’s Bantamweight
For some reason, the UFC has something against making the most intriguing contest on the prelims the featured prelim. Though many of us have said the featured prelim is no longer a thing, the UFC broadcast team still refers to the final prelim as the featured prelim. And for some reason that only the UFC knows, this isn’t the featured prelim….
It’s easy to forget it was just over a year ago Pennington challenged Amanda Nunes for the title. The contest was anything but competitive. Pennington wanted to throw in the towel, only to be convinced by her corner to march back out in the final round, only to be violently finished. Losses like that can ruin a career. Look at Renan Barao after he was decimated by TJ Dillashaw the first time. How about Ronda Rousey losing to Holly Holm? If you want to go old school, David Loiseau’s loss to Rich Franklin was something he never recovered from. Pennington lost to Germaine de Randamie in her follow up contest in a contest where she didn’t seem to be in the right head space. Can she rebound, or is she permanently affected from her loss to Nunes?
If Pennington is right, she’s become an effective pocket boxer who can either engage in a brawl or in a technical point fight. Against most of the division, she’s going to be competitive in either environment. However, her limited athletic ability prevents her from being competitive with the best strikers the division has to offer… like Nunes and de Randamie. Some thought – myself included – Pennington had enough wrestling to create problems for de Randamie, but every single one of her takedowns were stuffed.
Given Aldana’s takedown defense has been one of her best attributes thus far in her UFC career, it sounds like Pennington may have to find a way to outbox her on the feet. Despite showing a greater ability to use her length, Aldana still has some gaping holes in her striking defense. Even worse, she won’t have much of a reach advantage on Pennington. Nonetheless, Aldana has been looking confident and should only continue to grow more confident as she is coming off her first finish in the UFC. I know I spent a lot of time talking about Pennington’s head space, but I really don’t like where it is. That’s why I’m picking against her when I would have firmly been in favor of her if I knew she would look like the Pennington we knew before the Nunes contest. Aldana via decision
Roxanne Modafferi (23-15) vs. Jennifer Maia (16-5-1), Women’s Flyweight
There is an unwritten rule in MMA that you can’t root against Modafferi. The eternally positive veteran with limited physical skills has continued her late career surge on the back of her experience and savvy, stealing away victories from more talented opposition. In her last appearance, despite being outclassed on the feet by Antonina Shevchenko, Modafferi found a way to put the older sister of the women’s flyweight champion on her back for long periods of the contest to take the W. Can she pull off a similar effort against Maia, a fighter she already has lost to?
Maia claimed the Invicta flyweight title when she defeated Modafferi the first time, though it was a close contest. Maia doesn’t throw volume at the same rate, but she does have far more power and is skilled enough on the mat that she’s one of the few who may actually be superior to Modafferi from there. Well… that’s what we thought before the first contest as Modafferi proved to be the more effective ground fighter, though not by much.
It would be shocking to see this contest end before 15 minutes is up. Modafferi remains amazingly durable for someone with such an extended career and Maia hasn’t been finished since early in her career. There’s no reason to expect any major changes from their first contest as neither has made any massive changes in their styles since that time. Given the original result saw Maia emerge victorious, it would be wise to expect that to happen again, regardless of how close the first contest was. Maia via decision
As for the rest….
For the life of me, I can’t figure out why Alex Caceres and Steven Peterson received the honor of being the featured prelim. Sure, this should be an entertaining contest, but highlighting a potential action fight hasn’t been the UFC’s strategy as of late. Look at where they put Andre Fili-Sheymon Moraes last week! Nonetheless, Caceres is possibly the most inconsistent fighter on the UFC roster. As of late, it’s been trending towards the bad Caceres showing more than the good Caceres. There is no mystery to what we’ll get from Peterson: straight forward action. He can wrestle some should the matchup call for it, but he prefers to stand and bang. Given Caceres defensive deficiencies, I’d expect Peterson to secure his first finish in the UFC. Peterson via TKO of RD2
It’s been a while since we’ve seen Sam Alvey live up to his Smilin’ nickname. Usually one of the busiest fighters on the roster, Alvey’s contest boil down to one of two results: a quick KO or a long, boring, decision with minimal action. It used to be that if a KO emerged, Alvey was the one gifting it to his opponent. As of late, he’s been on the receiving end. He shouldn’t have to worry about that too much this time around as his opponent, Klidson Abreu, is a submission specialist. Generally, if Abreu gets a dominant position on the mat, it’s over. However, the most underrated aspect of Alvey’s game is his submission defense, tapping just once in a career that’s quickly edging towards 50 fights. With Abreu’s standup far from being effective, I’m expecting Alvey to win. I’ll be an optimist and say he does so with flair. Alvey via KO of RD1
Ray Borg has fallen hard and fast. After his demoralizing loss to Demetrious Johnson in October 2017, medical issues with his young child kept him from returning quickly. When he finally did get back in the cage, Borg looked uninspired, dropping a decision to a short notice replacement in Casey Kenney, who was also making his UFC debut. Some may point to Borg moving up to bantamweight… but Kenney had previously fought at flyweight too! Borg’s performance can be excusable to an extent as it’s difficult to give a career full attention when your child’s life is in a precarious position, but part of the job is to perform regardless of distractions. He welcomes Gabriel Silva, Erick’s little brother, to the Octagon. Silva isn’t quite as explosive as his older brother, but he can be just as reckless. Though I like Silva’s potential, I expect Borg’s loss to Kenney to be a wake up call. Silva’s UFC and bantamweight debut doesn’t turn out well for the Brazilian as Borg returns to his wrestling roots. Borg via decision
After making their UFC entrance as short notice injury replacements, Jin Soo Son and Mario Bautista both get full camps to prepare in a modern striker vs. grappler. Son made the more favorable impression in his debut, going the distance with Petr Yan, refusing to back down from the talented Russian’s onslaught. He’s not the most technical striker, but he’s aggressive and that can make up for a lot of deficiencies. In retrospect, given the continued emergence of Cory Sandhagen, Bautista’s debut has aged better, though not by much. Expected to be a top-notch grappler, Bautista underestimated Sandhagen’s abilities on the ground and ended up submitted himself. If Bautista’s wrestling was up to snuff, I wouldn’t be so quick to lean towards the native of South Korea. As it is, Son’s volume gets him the win. Son via decision
You won’t find many bantamweights taller than the 6’0” Domingo Pilarte. The lanky Texan is a slick submission specialist with some nice trips and throws with a love of uppercuts. However, he doesn’t have a great feel for how to use that length on the feet, getting pieced up by Vince Morales in their Contender Series contest before finding the submission. His opponent, Felipe Colares, has some solid credentials on the ground himself, perhaps even a better overall grappler and scrambler. If Colares can negate Pilarte’s ground attack, he’s the superior athlete and should be able to outpoint Pilarte on the feet. Despite my pick, it should be noted this is largely a toss up. Colares via decision