Despite the prevailing belief that a knockout is the sole result of a powerful punch, there are many variables that increase the likelihood of a KO.
Co-authored by Dr. Paulie “Gloves” Gavoni and Dr. Alex Edmonds
If you were fortunate enough to witness UFC 218, you were no likely in awe (and possibly shocked) at the shot heard around the MMA world as Francis Ngannou delivered what might possibly be the most devastating lead uppercut ever witnessed in MMA. The outcome: Alistair Overeem’s body lay sprawled on the mat and the only thing missing was the white chalk outline. To the combat sports fan, the knockout (KO) is as beautiful as it is violent. Akin to the “Hail Mary” in football, the walk-off homerun in baseball, or perhaps the buzzer-beater in basketball, delivering a KO is often the ultimate outcome for combat athletes. In fact, combat sports fans are frequently whipped into a frenzied state following a KO as some primal instinct is awakened by the sight of a fighter being put down for the “mat nap.” This has never been more evident than the crowd reaction to Ngannou’s vicious KO of Overeem.
Ultimately, the KO is the result of a head injury that disrupts neurological function, aka a concussion. A detailed description of a concussion can be found in the medical research, which provides a precise explanation of the biological causes of the KO. But beyond the obvious concussion, what factors increase the likelihood of knockout? Some simply believe it is the result of a powerful punch. While this can certainly be one major variable, it is not THE ONLY variable.
Not intended to delve into neurologic or biologic factors involved in concussions, this article will explore predictors of the KO, or rather patterns that tend to increase the likelihood a KO will occur.
Accuracy
Combat sports sometimes provides perplexing visuals when it comes to a KO. In one moment a fighter lands what appears to be a devastating punch yet the opponent continues fighting apparently impervious to the punishment. In the next moment the same fighter lands what appears to be a glancing blow that results in the opponent dropping like sack of potatoes on the canvas. How can this be? Sometimes it simply the accuracy of the strike.
Areas that have historically increased the likelihood of a KO include the tip of the chin, the temple, and the area just behind the ear. And we would be remiss if we didn’t mention the precisely delivered liver shot. While the liver shot does not separate the fighter from his senses, it is recognized as one of the most painful fight-ending strikes across combat sports.
A good illustration of the effects of accuracy can be found in the Anderson Silva vs Forrest Griffin match. Fans were shocked when Griffin, a hardened and proven warrior, was dropped by a retreating Silva who threw what appeared to be a light, but precisely delivered strike to the chin of Griffin. Accuracy was certainly a variable of this KO. In fact, when Conor McGregor KO’d Jose Aldo, he mentioned in the press conference after that it was just accuracy and not power that won the day.
Timing
In baseball, timing is the difference between hitting the ball and striking out. It requires fast reflexes and predictive ability. Timing might be considered the ninja of strikes. It involves delivering a strike at an unexpected moment. Fighters who do not see or do not expect a strike to come are more likely to be KO’d. In the illustration above, timing was likely a variable in the Griffin KO. Silva, who appeared to be retreating was actually using countering technique as he employed hand positioning and footwork to bait Griffin forward into his perfectly timed trap.
Conditioning
This is a no-brainer. Fighters who compete with inadequate conditioning can never achieve peak performance. Nothing is worse for a fighter than being “out of gas” as an opponent swarms with strikes. Sometimes it is not actually a lack of conditioning but simply a war of attrition as fighters grind each other down. In these cases, the fighter with even slightly superior conditioning can achieve the knockout when the skill-sets are relatively even.
Volume
Even fighters who are not accurate, do not have good timing, and are not powerful punchers can still achieve the KO through a volume of punches. Volume is inextricably linked to conditioning as throwing or absorbing numerous strikes requires adequate preparation.
Speed
In boxing, there is an old saying, “Power thrills, but speed kills.” In the physics world, power can be calculated based on force and speed. But even without great force, speed, especially when combined with other variables like timing and accuracy, is often a major factor in the KO.
Age
In Reed Kuhn’s book Fightnomics: The Hidden Numbers in Mixed Martial Arts and Why There’s No Such Thing as a Fair Fight, age was seen to be a large predictor of a KO. Specifically, combatants over 36 are more than twice as likely to be knocked out as compared with a 23 year old fighter. And this number continues to accelerate as the fighter ages.
History
History is specifically related to the volume and magnitude of strikes landed during a fighter’s career. Being hit in the head is not an isolated event. It has a cumulative effect. At some point, even fighters like Brad Pickett known to have granite jaws are betrayed by their chin as the result of many wars. Michael Bisping is the latest warrior whose brain may have succumbed to a history punishment.
Camp
Unfortunately, some fight camps can do more harm than good to fighters as they receive unnecessary punishment through poor preparation strategies. Fighters who have been hurt or KO’d during training camp are more likely to be hurt or KO’d during the fight as the brain has not sufficiently recovered. In the Silva/Griffin fight, one might speculate Griffin may have been hurt during his camp given his body’s uncharacteristic response to Silva’s strike.
Incidentally, we’ve provided recommendations for improving fight camps in Fight Science: Introducing SMART Camps and Fight Science: Engineering Smart Camps.
Genetic Predisposition
Some fighters just seem to be more likely to take punishment. Justin Gaethje is a prime example of this as he often appears to throw caution to the wind as he is willing to take punishment to give it. Even his ability to take punishment has its limits as evidenced by his knockout at the hands (or rather knee) of Eddie Alvarez this weekend. Like Pickett, Daniel Cormier and Roy Nelson seem to be genetically predisposed with granite jaws… though it’s unclear exactly what makes a “granite jaw.”
Defensive Skills
Floyd Mayweather is a defensive master, perhaps the best ever to enter to the ring. Fighters with solid defense receive less punishment during the fight and during camp. The results, less wear and tear on the brain. However, fighters who have poor defensive skills are for more likely to take punishment and be KO’d.
Psychological/Emotional State
You’ve probably heard the stories of the drunk involved in the car accident who walks away unscathed where others are seriously injured or even killed. Beyond sheer luck, one variable here is the relaxed nature of the body. Fighters who are relaxed are able to sustain more damage. Being relaxed is a hallmark of the greatest athletes and is the result of thousands of hours of deliberate practice and mastery experience. In combat sports, remaining relaxed is intimately related to a fighter’s defensive prowess as fighters feel safer. Fighters who feel confident in their ability to elude strikes are able to better manage their state of arousal and are better able to observe and react more efficiently during a fight. Managing states of tension when needed and releasing it when appropriate takes years to develop and should be practiced specifically in training camp. We have referred to the term in the past of “controlled exertion.” The fighter who is able to exert him or herself in a controlled fashion without exerting unneeded energy will be the more efficient fighter. We believe a fighter who best exemplifies this is Nate Diaz. His ability to remain relaxed is likely one variable that has kept him from being KO’d.
Conclusion
Despite the prevailing belief that a knockout is the sole result of a powerful punch, there are many variables that increase the likelihood of a KO. And when multiple variables are combined with power, we’d suggest the chances of being KO’d increase exponentially. What other variables do you believe factor into the knockout that we’ve left off the list? We’d love to hear your thoughts!
Bios
An expert in leadership and human performance, Dr. Paul “Paulie Gloves” Gavoni is a highly successful professional striking coach in mixed martial arts. As an athletic leader and former golden gloves heavyweight champion of Florida, Coach Paulie successfully applies the science of human behavior to coach multiple fighters to championship titles at varying levels worldwide. With many successful fighters on his resume, Coach Paulie tailors his approach to fit the needs of specific fighters based on a fighter’s behavioral, physiological, and psychological characteristics. Coach Paulie is a featured coach in the book, Beast: Blood, Struggle, and Dreams at the Heart of Mixed Martial Arts and the featured Bloody Elbow article Ring to Cage: How four former boxers help mold MMA’s finest. He can be reached at [email protected].
Alex Edmonds, PhD, BCB, is currently an associate professor of research at Nova Southeastern University in Davie, Florida. He graduated from Florida State University and received his doctoral degree in Educational Psychology with a minor in Statistics and Measurement. Over the years, Dr. Edmonds has applied his knowledge of research design, measurement and assessment in both field and laboratory examinations. He has published extensively in a variety of areas such as research design, psychophysiology and sport psychology. Prior to graduate school, he was a strength and conditioning coach working with professional athletes in football, track, and boxing. He then combined his passion for the sports with the field of psychology making it the emphasis of his graduate work. While in graduate school, he conducted his field work with the track and field team at Florida State and started using biofeedback for research and practice during this time. He has utilized biofeedback extensively with various types of athletes for performance enhancement, as well as stress-regulation techniques. Dr. Edmonds is certified through the Biofeedback Certification International Alliance in general biofeedback.