UFC 304 is now only a couple of days away, and what better way to get hyped for the upcoming pay-per-view than with some MMA News staff predictions?
The event will be available exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view on Saturday, June 27, 2024. The main card begins at 10 PM ET, while the preliminary card kicks off at 6 PM ET.
The main event will see UFC Welterweight Champion Leon Edwards run it back with Belal Muhammad in defense of his title on home soil. The rematch comes over three years on from their UFC Fight Night headliner in 2021 ending in a no contest.
Also competing with gold on the line will be Manchester’s own Tom Aspinall, who makes a rare defense of an interim title. After capturing the heavyweight belt at the expense of Sergei Pavlovich last November, the Brit will share the cage again with Curtis Blaydes, against whom a serious knee injury saw him suffer his first UFC loss back in 2022.
Elsewhere on the main card, Paddy Pimblett will be back in action for the first time since outpointing Tony Ferguson last December and English featherweight Arnold Allen meets the striking challenge of Georgia’s Giga Chikadze. And earlier in the night, top flyweights Muhammad Mokaev and Manel Kape are set to battle for a potential title shot.
UFC 304: MMA News Staff Predictions
Ahead of Saturday’s UFC 304 event, Kyle Dimond, Ryan Jarrell, Thomas Albano, and Tyriece Simon have provided their picks for the five major matchups set for Saturday night.
Below, you can check out the current leaderboard through three cards.
- Thomas Albano (12-2)
- Tyriece Simon (11-3)
- Ryan Jarrell (9-5)
- Kyle Dimond (8-6)
- Andrew Starc (5-4)
And with that, it’s time for the team’s predictions for UFC 304.
Featherweight: Arnold Allen vs. Giga Chikadze
Kyle Dimond: Chikadze is an incredibly dangerous striker but I’m not overly sold yet on his ability to compete with the best in this weight class. Allen, on the other hand, has been tested at that same level, and while he didn’t get his hand raised against Max Holloway or Movsar Evloev, he showed that he’s not far off.
The Brit has more weapons at his disposal and this will likely be key for him in this fight. Allen is a well-polished jack of all trades, but striking with Chikadze is never going to be his best route to victory. “Almighty” is disciplined enough on the feet to avoid getting caught with something massive, and through mixing in his takedowns across 15 minutes, he’ll return to the win column on home soil. (Prediction: Arnold Allen)
Ryan Jarrell: I love watching Chikadze fight. He has a fan-friendly style and can end the fight at any moment with his precise striking. But stylistically, this is a bad matchup for him. Allen is five years younger and much closer to his prime years than the Georgian is. I expect “Almighty” to dictate where the fights takes place and win a decision. (Prediction: Arnold Allen)
Thomas Albano: It’s sad that this fight is not getting the attention that it should, because it is a solid opener for a UK pay-per-view. Allen may be coming off back-to-back losses, but those were his first two defeats in the UFC, and they weren’t bad considering the guys who beat him were Holloway and Evolev. Chikadze, meanwhile, has won all but one of his fights in the Octagon, with three of his last four victories coming from highlight finishes. And his one loss? Calvin Kattar – a solid name at 145 pounds.
Considering both of these guys like to strike and bring powerful pressure, this one should be a fun way to get some early heat going for the main show. Overall, I think Allen is slightly better all-around, and I feel the younger fighter, a TriStar product, will use all of the skills in his toolbox to score a solid decision win. (Prediction: Arnold Allen)
Tyriece Simon: This matchup is my prediction to be the Fight of the Night. Both like to keep the fight on their feet and put on entertaining performances for the fans. Allen comes into the fight on a losing streak, but it was against top competition in Holloway and Evloev. I think “Almighty” will rebound against Chikadze and get back on track in the featherweight division.
The Georgian kickboxer has been out of action for nearly a year and could experience ring rust earlier in the fight. Allen also has notable grappling ability with a 50 percent takedown accuracy. The Brit could give Chikadze issues if he mixes the threat of a takedown and striking to keep his opponent guessing, which Calvin Kattar was able to do. I think Allen will use this game plan to outpace his opponent to win a decision in his home country. (Prediction: Arnold Allen)
Consensus: 4-0 Arnold Allen
Flyweight: Muhammad Mokaev vs. Manel Kape
Kyle Dimond: The fight to potentially decide who the next flyweight title challenger should never be this low on any card. The fight is quite simple in my mind: if Mokaev takes him down and keeps him there, he wins. At the same time, I don’t see a world in which Kape loses the striking battle. I’m not confident that “Starboy” will be able to sharpshoot his way to a win here and can see Mokaev doing everything he can to grab ahold of him. Similar to the Alex Perez fight, I think “The Punisher” stays undefeated in a bit of a cagey contest (apologies for the pun) that goes the distance. (Prediction: Muhammad Mokaev)
Ryan Jarrell: We are going to find out just how good Mokaev is in this fight. One worry I do have when it comes to Kape is his inactivity. He hasn’t been as active as his undefeated opponent has been, and I wonder if that will play a factor in the fight. Mokaev is 6-0 in the UFC and 11-0 overall. He is a very dangerous fighter on the ground, and if the fight hits the mat, I think Kape is in big trouble.
Ultimately, I expect “The Punisher” to avoid the big shots from the dangerous striker and get this fight to the ground in each and every round while cruising to a somewhat boring decision victory. (Prediction: Muhammad Mokaev)
Thomas Albano: It’s awful to see how far this fight has fallen, and it makes you question what is going on behind the scenes. These two are amazing flyweight competitors, and recent events have seen the two of them get into it at the fighter hotel. My prayer at this point is that this is just a random UFC decision to boost prelims and not a weight or contractual concern.
This feels like a traditional grappler vs. striker matchup. Some people on social media have been laying it in on Mokaev, saying he’ll just sit on Kape for 15 minutes and then complain about not being next in line for a title shot. But when you have the wrestling and submission grappling background like he does, and with him knowing that he needs a big performance to convince UFC brass to give him Alexandre Pantoja next, you bet he’s going to look to take Kape down, do damage and find the tap-out as often as possible.
It’s sad various issues have prevented us from seeing all that we could of Kape in the Octagon. His punches helped lead him to a title in RIZIN, and he has the ability to test Mokaev’s chin in this one. But it feels like “The Punisher” will be ready for what Kape is going to bring from his hands – or that “Starboy” may be underestimating the grappling abilities of Mokaev, likely leading to a submission for the Brit. (Prediction: Muhammad Mokaev)
Tyriece Simon: I’m really excited about this fight, as the winner could be next in line for a title opportunity. Mokaev has leaned on his grappling ability to dominate his opponents for most of his UFC career. I believe he will have the same game plan against Kape. “Starboy” has good takedown defense, but I think he’ll have difficulty dealing with Mokaev’s grappling. Another problem can be how the weight cut will affect the former Rizin bantamweight champion. He has missed weight in the past, including a recent issue that led to his rematch against Matheus Nicolau being canceled earlier this year.
If he successfully makes weight for his fight against Mokaev, I believe Kape’s cardio might be affected by the multiple takedowns he’ll have to defend. I have “The Punisher” dominating the Angola-born Portuguese flyweight en route to either a finish or a decision victory. (Prediction: Muhammad Mokaev)
Consensus: 4-0 Muhammad Mokaev
Lightweight: King Green vs. Paddy Pimblett
Kyle Dimond: This, along with the co-main event, is the toughest one to call for me. Pimblett has the size, power, and finishing ability to bully Green early on and overwhelm him. The issue with this is that Green is an excellent matador, and we’ve seen him time and time again just dance his way around the Octagon and light opponents up with his fast hands. “The Baddy” can be caught, but for me, it’s whether he’s able to smother Green quick enough to avoid getting tagged repeatedly. Pimblett has to make this ugly. I can see him getting his hand raised via submission in round two, but not without blood coming out of his nose first. (Prediction: Paddy Pimblett)
Ryan Jarrell: The trash talk leading into this fight will be so much fun. I expect the fight to deliver as well. We are going to find out a lot about Pimblett in the contest. Green is a tough matchup and his unusual striking could be problematic for “The Baddy.” The last person to submit Green was David Mitchell in 2009. It would be a huge feather in Pimblett’s cap to do it at UFC 304.
I don’t expect the Liverpool native to get the submission, but his best chance to win this fight is to take it to the ground and keep Green on his back. I think Pimblett will do it enough to win a close decision over the American. (Prediction: Paddy Pimblett)
Thomas Albano: After turning away a former UFC lightweight champion who is a shell of his former self in Ferguson, Pimblett now gets another step up in competition when he takes on Green. The veteran may be past his prime, but the fact he is still winning fights and staying competitive with notable contenders at 155 pounds should give him nothing short of praise. And after a controversial win over Jared Gordon in December 2022, and not seeing him again until a win (by decision, not finish, mind you) against Ferguson in December 2023, Pimblett is going to need a big performance on the British stage.
The keys to victory for this one should bring us a typical striker vs. grappler battle. Green should look to be himself, landing powerful shots – mixing them up between distance and the pocket – and defending any of Pimblett’s takedown attempts. “The Baddy,” meanwhile, should look to do some damage to make it easier to get the fight to the ground, where he has the best chance of winning. As Pimblett is the younger fighter with better movement and more upward trajectory, I’m going to side with him. But this is going to be a tall order. He needs to be locked in on fight night to put on the kind of showing that can get him back on track toward a spot in the lightweight rankings. (Prediction: Paddy Pimblett)
Tyriece Simon: Pimblett enters the fight confident that he’ll get past Green and join the lightweight rankings. He had an impressive performance over Tony Ferguson at UFC 296 last year, but most agree that “El Cucuy” isn’t the same fighter he once was. Regardless, he showed improvement in his striking and was able to outland the former interim champ. Green presents a different challenge as he has demonstrated that he is still there or thereabouts in his fighting prime and will have an overwhelming advantage on the feet.
Pimblett has had issues absorbing too many strikes and has been stunned in past fights. Green’s speed, punching power, and accuracy will be brutal for the Liverpudlian. The veteran does also boast 74 percent takedown defense accuracy, making the matchup more difficult for Pimblett. I’m unsure if Green will finish “The Baddy,” but he can outwork the fan favorite to a decision. (Prediction: King Green)
Consensus: 3-1 Paddy Pimblett
Interim UFC Heavyweight Title: Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes
Kyle Dimond: I agree with the “interim” heavyweight champion that Blaydes is the toughest stylistic match-up for him in the heavyweight division. Aspinall will be too quick for him on the feet but the issue with that is the Brit is not a distance striker. He tends to stun heavyweights by reaching them with strikes by exploding into range when they think they’re outside it. To do that against “Razor” puts him in constant danger of running into a big shot or a takedown.
I think this fight will test Aspinall. He will have difficult moments, but he’s a very smart grappler who should be able to keep himself safe if the fight hits the floor. As Blaydes’ gas tank begins to wear, I think Aspinall might build into it and get stronger. Every round starts standing, and as we’ve seen many times, the interim champion only needs a minute to find the winning punch. I expect him to find it in round three. (Prediction: Tom Aspinall)
Ryan Jarrell: Unlike the main event, this is a rematch that I am very excited about. The first fight ended the way that none of us wanted it to. Luckily enough for us, we get a rematch when both fighters are still smack in the middle of their primes. I am a huge fan of Blaydes, but unfortunately for him, he has to face the best heavyweight (in my opinion) of today’s generation. Aspinall is as well rounded as it gets, and I would be extremely surprised if he doesn’t dominate this fight and end it by way of knockout early, if not in the very first round. (Prediction: Tom Aspinall)
Thomas Albano: Like the headliners for this pay-per-view, Aspinall and Blaydes have their own form of unfinished business. We barely got to see any of their first contest, with Aspinall tearing his MCL mere seconds into the fight. Prior to his injury, the Englishman was one of the best prospects rising the ranks the UFC had, and his momentum has not stopped since returning a year ago. Aspinall used his explosive power and finishing ability, turning it into an interim title win at UFC 295. In fact, considering the ongoings of Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic, some might consider Aspinall the true champion of the UFC’s heavyweight division. But before Aspinall can look toward bigger aspirations of being undisputed champion, he has to get through the only man, injury or not, that holds a win over him in the Octagon.
Just like his fellow Chicago-born UFC title challenger at UFC 304 in Belal Muhammad, Blaydes’ wrestling is his key to victory. Though “Razor” holds devastating power like Aspinall, he also has a wrestling pedigree, holding the UFC heavyweight record for most takedowns in a fight. Like some of his previous performances, the finish of Aspinall would best come on the ground. That said, it’s going to be easier said than done against the interim champ, who will look to keep distance and land his powerful punching from there. The power may be just too much for Blaydes in this one, as Aspinall continues to be the face of the UFC’s heavyweight division – whether or not Jones is the undisputed king. (Prediction: Tom Aspinall)
Tyriece Simon: Fans should expect Aspinall to come into this matchup extra motivated to avenge his defeat to Blaydes. Their first fight lasted 15 seconds, with the interim champion injuring his knee after stepping back from landing a leg kick. I believe the fight will give fans more of a decisive winner without any doubt about who the better fighter is. That is why I lean toward Aspinall being victorious in his home country.
I think the Brit has the advantage if the fight stays standing with good head movement and hand speed. Blaydes has not relied on his grappling lately, showing his striking has improved. He also shared that he doesn’t intend to change his gameplan for the rematch, so I expect him to want to stand in front of Aspinall for a knockout. I think Blaydes’ strategy benefits Aspinall for counters that could put the challenger in trouble. If “Razor” utilizes his grappling, it could swing the momentum in his favor. But I think Blaydes will feel confident standing with the interim champion, and I believe Aspinall will catch him for a knockout. (Prediction: Tom Aspinall)
Consensus: 4-0 Tom Aspinall
UFC Welterweight Title: Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad
Kyle Dimond: Muhammad has been on a great run, but having seen Edwards deal with wrestling specialists in the past, it’s hard to see how he wins this fight. If he is able to land takedowns, I’m not sure he’ll be able to keep “Rocky” down, land damage, and do that for enough rounds to win a decision. The champion has shown that he’s excellent at chipping away at opponents without leaving himself open for being taken down, and when the likes of Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington have closed the gap on him, he’s been more than happy to test his grappling against theirs.
Like many, I’m not expecting a particularly exhilarating fight, but the welterweight title is staying in England by way of a decision. (Prediction: Leon Edwards)
Ryan Jarrell: This is a rematch a lot of people are eagerly anticipating. I am not one of those people. I thoroughly expect Edwards to stuff takedowns and keep this fight where he wants it (on the feet) and cruise to a decision victory. The reigning welterweight champion is the better fighter, and as long as his takedown defense holds up, there is no way he loses this fight. (Prediction: Leon Edwards)
Thomas Albano: For as much as some people may not be a fan of this matchup, it always proves to be interesting when thinking about two guys who come into a bout on the kinds of win streaks like Edwards and Muhammad. “Rocky” hasn’t lost since 2015, winning the welterweight title in the spectacular fashion as he did and turning away Kamaru Usman (in a trilogy fight) and Colby Covington last year. Muhammad, meanwhile, is unbeaten since 2019. The only time neither guy hasn’t come out on top in those spans was when they fought each other to a no contest in 2021. Now, it’s time for unfinished business to be settled.
Though Muhammad’s wrestling hasn’t won him the most fans, it’s won him most of his fights. It’s the key to his success. He should look for the takedown, keep the fight on the ground, and look to overwhelm Edwards with a variety of attacks and keep him pinned to the floor. That, however, will be easier said than done when the champ has made strides in his own grappling abilities over the years. Combine that with Edwards’ kickboxing and he is just the overall more well-rounded fighter. Edwards won the sole round scored when they faced off in 2021, and perhaps that’s how this fight plays out. (Prediction: Leon Edwards)
Tyriece Simon: Edwards and Muhammad are coming into the matchup in phenomenal shape for their long-awaited rematch. In their first fight from 2021, “Rocky” overwhelmed his rival in the first round. I think Edwards has gotten better and has the skillset to give Muhammad a formidable challenge to overcome. Both like to outwork their opponents by mixing up their striking and grappling for dominant decision wins.
The Brit does have the reach advantage to utilize his jab to keep Muhammad on the outside. UFC analytics also shows that Muhammad absorbs more significant strikes than Edwards, which could be a factor as he tries to get on the inside for a takedown attempt. If the challenger gets on the inside, Edwards has good takedown defense, making putting him on the ground difficult. Fans should also expect sharp elbows from the champion if they engage in the clinch position. This fight can lean either way, but I believe Edwards will outpoint Muhammad to retain his title. (Prediction: Leon Edwards)
Consensus: 4-0 Leon Edwards
That’ll do it for our UFC 304 staff picks! What do you think? Do your picks look similar? Let us know in the comments section! Also, you can check out the full UFC 304 card below.
Main Card:
- Welterweight Championship Main Event: Leon Edwards (C) vs. Belal Muhammad
- Interim Heavyweight Championship Co-Main Event: Tom Aspinall (IC) vs. Curtis Blaydes
- Lightweight: King Green vs. Paddy Pimblett
- Middleweight: Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Gregory Rodrigues
- Featherweight: Arnold Allen vs. Giga Chikadze
Preliminary Card:
- Featherweight: Nathaniel Wood vs. Daniel Pineda
- Women’s Strawweight: Molly McCann vs. Bruna Brasil
- Bantamweight: Caolán Loughran vs. Jake Hadley
- Light Heavyweight: Modestas Bukauskas vs. Marcin Prachnio
Early Preliminary Card:
- Welterweight: Oban Elliott vs. Preston Parsons
- Flyweight: Muhammad Mokaev vs. Manel Kape
- Welterweight: Sam Patterson vs. Kiefer Crosbie
- Heavyweight: Mick Parkin vs. ?ukasz Brzeski
- Women’s Strawweight: Shauna Bannon vs. Alice Ardelean
Be sure to keep it right here on MMANews.com tomorrow for all the results, highlights, and updates on UFC 304!
Continue Reading UFC 304: Staff Predictions For Edwards vs. Muhammad 2, Aspinall vs. Blaydes 2, Green vs. Pimblett, & More at MMA News.