(“Overeem is my son. Scott Coker is my uncle. Gina Carano is my hot cousin. Josh Barnett is my sister’s meathead boyfriend.”)
Betting odds for the complete lineup of tomorrow night’s Strikeforce card were released yesterday, and looking over these numbers, it seems like the perfect opportunity to dig yourself out of the hole you put yourself in by following our previous gambling advice. Now, we don’t actually recommend the use of off-shore gambling sites these days, in light of the government’s recent eRaids, but hey, entertainment purposes and all, right? Check out the juiciest lines for Strikeforce: Overeem vs. Werdum, courtesy of BestFightOdds.com, then listen very carefully to what we have to say…
Main Card (Showtime, 10 p.m.)
Alistair Overeem (-321) vs. Fabricio Werdum (+300)
Josh Barnett (-319) vs. Brett Rogers (+309)
K.J. Noons (-144) vs. Jorge Masvidal (+135)
Daniel Cormier (-300) vs. Jeff Monson (+325)
Valentijn Overeem (+111) vs. Chad Griggs (-122)
Preliminary Card (HDNet, 8 p.m. ET)
Gesias Cavalcante (-115) vs. Justin Wilcox (+110)
Conor Heun (+120) vs. Magno Almeida (-130)
Nah-Shon Burrell (+275) vs. Joe Ray (-313)
Todd Moore (+260) vs. Mike Bronzoulis (-280)
Brian Melancon (-115) vs. Isaac Vallie-Flagg (+105)
The Main Event: Look, I hug Ubereem’s nuts as much as the next dude. I’m just saying, Werdum was a +430 underdog against Fedor Emelianenko, and he managed to end that fight in 69 seconds. (He was also good enough to submit Overeem five years ago, if that means anything to you.) Most likely, Overeem will be able keep the fight standing and have his way with Werdum — but there’s always the chance that Fabricio could catch the jacked Dutchman. And since he’d triple your investment, it’s worth a modest bet.
The Good ‘Dogs: A lot of them, actually — this is definitely a card that encourages risk. Besides the main event, you have Jeff Monson as a more-than-3-to-1 underdog against Daniel Cormier. Cormier is undefeated, and always impressive in his fights, but he’s a baby in the sport, and he’s never faced anybody even remotely close to Monson’s level of skill and experience. (Stupid fact: In the Snowman’s 53-fight career, he’s earned the same number of wins via north/south choke [7] as Cormier has total fights on his record.) The line is a little inflated, is what I’m saying.
Similarly, the well-traveled Valentijn Overeem is a slight underdog against rising prospect Chad Griggs, when I’d put Alistair’s bro as a slight favorite. But the opposite is true in Cavalcante vs. Wilcox. Despite JZ’s previous history of top-ten-ranked excellence, he’s really struggled to make an impact in the last three years, while Wilcox has been on a tear. Cash on the Silverback could pay off.
Keep Away: Josh Barnett as a 3-1 fave over Brett Rogers sounds about right to me; there’s not enough edge for a straight bet, so save him for the parlay. I also think KJ Noons makes sense as a solid favorite over Jorge Masvidal, but I’d like to see how Noons looks back at lightweight for at least one fight before I start putting money on him.
The Guy You’ve Never Heard Of: Magno Almeida is a 9-1 submission ace who has ended seven of his fights in the first round. Due to injuries and bad matchups, his opponent Conor Heun hasn’t won a fight in nearly three years, and hasn’t been inside the cage since losing a decision to KJ Noons last June. Give the new kid a shot.
Official CagePotato Parlay #1 (novice): $10 on A. Overeem + Barnett + Wilcox + Almeida returns a $46.48 profit at BetUS.
Official CagePotato Parlay #2 (advanced): $10 on Werdum + Barnett + V. Overeem + Monson + Noons returns a $589.63 profit.