(I got blood on my hands and there’s no remorse, I got blood on my…well, you get the point.)
We’ll be completely honest, folks, it has been awhile since the official CagePotato Parlay has shown us a return worth getting excited about, or any return for that matter. Bill collectors were ignored, drugs were peddled, and we even had to turn a trick or two to solve our gambling debts. But as they say, it is always darkest before the dawn. Last week, we actually managed to end up in the green, so what better opportunity to keep the ball rolling than the UFC’s debut on FX tomorrow? Check out the betting lines, courtesy of BestFightOdds, along with our advice below.
Main Card
Pat Barry (-165) vs. Christian Morecraft (+145)
Mike Easton (-340) vs. Jared Papazian (+280)
Duane Ludwig (-110) vs. Josh Neer (-110)
Jim Miller (-170) vs. Melvin Guillard (+150)
Undercard
Nick Denis (-240) vs. Joseph Sandoval (+200)
Daniel Pineda (-120) vs. Pat Schilling (EV)
Fabricio Camoes (-325) vs. Tom Hayden (+265)
Kamal Shalorus (-135) vs. Habib Nurmagomedov (+115)
Charlie Brenneman (-300) vs. Daniel Roberts (+250)
Eric Schafer (-155) vs. Jorge Rivera (+135)
Thoughts…
The Main Event: Here’s what we know; Melvin Guillard may just be the hardest hitting 155er in the UFC, and has greatly improved his takedown defense over the years. What we also know is that Melvin recently decided to leave the team responsible for his recent success to join a camp that allowed Anthony Johnson to show up twelve pounds overweight at the UFC 142 weigh-ins. Oh yeah, and he doesn’t exactly have a ground game worth bragging about, and against a Jiu-Jitsu ace like Miller, that spells trouble.
On the contrary, Jim Miller is a smart, well rounded fighter who has been impossible to knock out thus far in his career. Is that saying Melvin can’t knock him out? Well, allow us to answer that question with a question; did anyone expect Guillard to steamroll Evan Dunham like he did? That being said, Miller is the worst kind of match-up for Guillard, and he should be able to snatch up a submission within three rounds.
The Good Dogs: Off the bat, Jorge Rivera looks good at +135. Though he’s dropped two straight, he’s got some serious power in his punches, and is facing a consistent UFC under-performer in Eric Schafer. This one really depends on whether or not “Red” can get it to the mat; if Jorge can stick-and-move, he’s got this one. Another name that stands out is one you probably won’t recognize, Habib Nurmagomedov. The man is 16-0 with an even KO to submission ratio, and is facing a toguh but flawed fighter in Kamal Shalorus. “The Price of Persia” has not fought since being TKO’ed by Jim Miller nearly a year ago, and though he may have some big league experience on “The Nurm” (official CP nickname), he also has some HUGE holes in his stand up game.
Also, several other gambling sites have Josh Neer listed as a slight underdog to Duane Ludwig at the moment, which could net you a small profit with a lone bet. Neer has a much better ground game, an arguably better gas tank, and only been stopped by strikes once in his career. Placing a small bet on “The Dentist” doesn’t seem like a terrible idea, but keep that one away from your parlay.
Tread Lightly: When placing your bet on Pat Barry. Don’t get us wrong, if Stefan Struve and Matt Mitrione were able to stop Christian Morecraft in the fashion they did, then “HD” should by all means have his way with him. But anyone who possesses a basic submission knowledge poses a threat to Barry *cough* Tim Hague, anyone?* We still like him to win, but aren’t going to bet the house on this one. He makes a nice addition to a parlay though.
Official CagePotato Parlay: Miller + Easton + Barry + Denis
100 bucks nets you $367.65 in return. Now, let’s all hold hands and pray to our collective Gods that we don’t have to pay another visit to Big Tim after this one.
-Danga