Is Holly Holm destined to always be known as “the woman who beat Ronda Rousey,” or is she the next dominant champion of the women’s bantamweight division?
That’s the question faced by the new champ in the co-main event at UFC 196.
The former champion boxer burst into public consciousness with a win over the previously unbeaten Rousey at UFC 193. Now she must try to do what her predecessor did until she was dethroned—take on all comers in a way that generates interest from the fans who now wonder what she can do.
That won’t be an easy task, though. Her first title defense comes against another well-known commodity in the division in Miesha Tate. Going back to her days in Strikeforce, Tate has been one of the most recognized fighters in the division, and she poses an entirely new arsenal of threats that weren’t there when Holm defeated Rousey.
Here’s a look at how the two have compared in their roads here as well as a prediction for how the co-main event will unfold.
Miesha Tate: The Consistent No. 2
Tate and Holm are two fighters who have—whether they like it or not—been defined by Rousey thus far in their careers.
For Tate, the distinction is a dubious one. She has consistently proved that she is the second-best fighter in the women’s bantamweight division. In the last six years, she has lost just three fights. Two of those losses were at the hands of Rousey.
Every time Tate has climbed the ladder, it has been Rousey who has been there to knock her back down. It was Rousey who took her title in Strikeforce, and the former Olympian denied her the UFC belt in a rematch.
Tate has proved to be a winner just about every time out against people not named Rousey, though.
She will bring a four-fight win streak into this bout that includes wins over Sara McMann, Jessica Eye and Liz Carmouche, all who can be found in the Top 10 of the division, according to UFC rankings.
This bout offers Tate the ability to separate her legacy from Rousey‘s. With two losses to the Rowdy one, it would have been difficult to earn a third fight and another shot at the belt. With a different stylistic challenge and narrative to deal with in Holm, this might actually be her best shot at winning a UFC championship.
Holly Holm: The New Champion
Holm‘s path to the UFC belt could not be more different than Tate’s. While Tate earned her way to the Octagon through the traditional MMA path of regional and progressively bigger organizations, Holm was busy making a name for herself in the sport of boxing.
It’s been well documented by now that Holm was a very successful boxer before transitioning to MMA. While Holm has also spent some time in the regional circuit, her bout against Tate will just be her 11th career MMA fight.
Tate will be making the walk into a cage for the 23rd time.
The evolution of Holm has been fascinating to watch. She debuted with some buzz because of her impressive boxing background. However, a split-decision win over Raquel Pennington didn’t do much to keep that buzz going.
Fortunately for Holm, Rousey went through enough opponents quickly enough that her shot came after one more decision win over Marion Reneau. The rest is history.
Much like Tate, Holm is still defined by Rousey. It will be up to her on Saturday to decide if that’s what her legacy will always be or if this is just the beginning. It’s a pressure she acknowledges she’s putting on herself.
“It’s just as important of a fight. I mean I don’t want to be a one-hit wonder. Even more of an important fight,” Holm told Damon Martin of Fox Sports. “A lot of people are wondering, ‘What’s really going to happen now after that kind of a victory? Is she the real deal? Is she really going to do it?'”
Prediction
There’s a strong possibility that fans are going to be reminded that styles make fights on Saturday.
Simple MMA math would tell you this fight isn’t going to be close. Rousey had a fairly easy time dispatching Tate. Holm beat Rousey fairly handily, so Holm should have a clear advantage when fighting Tate.
Proceed with caution when using MMA math to prognosticate, though. Tate is a much different challenge than Rousey.
Where Rousey became so dominant with a systemic style of fighting that involved dictating exactly where the fight takes place at all times, Tate is much more organic with her approach. “Cupcake” is capable of exchanging with strikers and landing the more powerful shots but is also at home in creating scrambles and engaging in a grappling contest.
Tate understands that Holm is an excellent striker. She detailed Holm‘s ability to effectively gauge and use distance in the clip below from the UFC. However, she also believes that she will have an answer where her bitter rival was not able to come up with one.
“I really think that I’m Holly Holm‘s kryptonite,” Tate told Martin of Fox Sports. “I am the worst matchup that Holly could ask for. I have more ring experience. I have a wrestling background, which is a threat there and it’s a completely different style of takedowns. She has never fought a girl even close to my style in MMA.”
Tate is probably right. She will pose more trouble for Holm. In addition to her ability to pressure and grapple, Tate is extremely durable. She has only been finished by TKO once in the UFC, and two of Holm‘s three UFC wins have come by decision rather than finish.
Realistically, this is a close fight that likely goes the distance. Tate should have at least one round where she’s able to control the fight and even put the champion in trouble.
However, it’s hard to pick against Holm after watching just how effective she can be with her kickboxing. In the end, Tate will likely come up just short of the title… again.
Holm by decision.
Read more MMA news on BleacherReport.com