It’s no secret that Tim Elliott will have to surprise many combat fans later tonight (Sat., Dec. 3, 2016) in order to defeat current Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) flyweight king Demetrious Johnson at TUF 24 Finale live on FOX Sports 1 from inside Palms Resort Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada. While Elliott did what he was supposed to do during his stint on The Ultimate Fighter to gain top contender rights in the 125-pound division, “Mighty Mouse” is widely considered the best pound-for-pound fighter on the planet. He has never lost at flyweight and has racked off eight-straight title defenses as the only 125-pound champion in UFC history.
But despite his accolades, Johnson is not perfect. He may be closer to that distinction than any other fighter in the world today, especially when it comes to combining offense and defense, but Elliott is a big body who could certainly cause the champ issues if things go awry. That’s why we’ve taken the necessary steps to breakdown the impending main event tilt and figure out what both Johnson and Elliott need to do at TUF 24 Finale later this evening to leave the Octagon victorious.
Demetrious Johnson
1. Take his time…
While Johnson has been one of the most durable champions in UFC during his four-year title reign, TUF 24 Finale will be one of the first times we’ll see him defend his title coming off injury. It’s going to be interesting to see how the champion comes out of the gate and whether or not he does things inside of the cage that he normally wouldn’t do.
In order to give himself some time to get back into the swing of things and dissect an opponent that is essentially coming out of nowhere, Johnson will be best suited to take his time and fight a reactionary fight for the first round, if not two. He usually isn’t a fast worker, having five out his eight title defenses reach the fifth frame, so it shouldn’t be difficult for “Mighty Mouse” to allow Elliott to advance and make mistakes.
Of course, Johnson will still have the speed to press Elliott into precarious positions from the opening bell on.
2. Make Elliott pay…
Knowing how versatile, precise and quick he is in all facets of his game, Johnson must understand that Elliott is going to come out aggressive to throw the champ off of his near-perfect gameplanning. Whether that’s rushing in on the feet, shooting for a quick takedown, trying to persuade “Mighty Mouse” to exchange in close quarters or trying to limit Johnson’s movement around the outside, Elliott is going to be an offensive fighter later tonight.
In order to take away any momentum Elliott may gain from being an overly aggressive challenger, Johnson must make him pay at every stop. The champion is quick enough to counter on the move, possesses the quick twitch pallet to defend any potential takedown and has proven time and time again that he can hit an opponent without being hit.
Elliott has to know that he’s going to take a shot to land one, so things could get interesting.
Tim Elliott
1. Attack early and often
If Elliott wants the best chance to overthrow the most dominant champion in the sport today, he’s going to have to come out guns blazing tonight at TUF 24 Finale. Allowing Johnson the time to settle in and find his groove isn’t good for any opponent, especially a slower and less explosive challenger like Elliott.
While the TUF winner will most likely have to absorb damage to inflict his own, Elliott does possess a worthy chin that may be his biggest weapon in this fight. But the longer the 29-year-old fails to close the distance and put pressure on “Mighty Mouse” the worse his chances of winning become.
When it really comes down to it, Elliott may have the most success if he treats this title fight like a two-round war.
2. Remain unpredictable
Johnson eats up predictable opponents like a dog chews on a bone. He also tends to bury those repetitive attackers in his own personal combat backyard. That’s why Elliot must remain unpredictable when he steps inside of the cage with “Mighty Mouse” later tonight.
While Elliott isn’t close in comparison to current UFC bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz, Johnson did have problems with Cruz when the two met back in 2011. Cruz’s size advantage certainly played a role in his ability to stifle Johnson, but it was also his uncanny footwork, in-and-out advancements, awkward angle play and his ability to mix in wrestling that dictated the entire fight.
If Elliott can somehow channel a portion of that Cruz-like gameplan, he could have more success than people think, especially when it comes to changing levels and keeping the champ on his toes.
Prediction: Johnson via third-round submission