Per Haljestam-USA TODAY Sports
Check out the opening betting line for potential UFC lightweight title fight between the champ Khabib Nurmagomedov and the deserving challenger Tony Ferguson.
UFC 242 in Abu Dhabi was the setting where the promotion’s undisputed lightweight king, Khabib Nurmagomedov, remained undefeated by submitting the interim champion Dustin Poirier in the third round. From a sporting standpoint, that makes the man on an undeniable 12-fight winning streak, Tony Ferguson, the logical contender to be next in line. Bloody Elbow has the betting odds for such potential matchup.
At 28-0, it’s expected for Nurmagomedov to be favored, and online betting site SportsBetting.ag has an opening moneyline for the Russian that represents just that. At an offering of -250, the bookies strongly expect the Khabib to remain undefeated and move to 29-0. In all honesty, why shouldn’t they?
The once stripped interim champ Tony Ferguson is typically shown ample respect by the oddsmakers, and is typically found sporting a minus line. Such is not the case this time around, and Ferguson is the largest betting underdog of his career. The American’s moneyline has opened up at a sizable dog tag of +210.
There’s a bit of talks amongst the fans and critics alike regarding a rather tight Guillotine choke that Poirier slapped on at UFC 242. Nurmagomedov eventually escaped and then promptly finished the fight with a sub of his own. One common claim is that if Poirier was able to get ahold of Khabib’s neck, then Ferguson, who is a proven choke artist, would be able to get a similar position, but secure the tap. That is what we call MMA math, and it’s not exactly a trustworthy method to correctly predict the outcomes of matches.
The reality is, Ferguson can be downright wild out there and has been put in a bit hot water by a much lesser caliber of opposition than a Nurmagomedov. He’s been cavalier enough in the past to give up the takedown, despite pulling out the victory. That is not MMA math but rather a pattern. The opening odds seem appropriate.
-Khabib Nurmagomedov -250
-Tony Ferguson +210