The path to UFC 189‘s main event, featuring Chad Mendes and Conor McGregor fighting for the interim featherweight championship, has been unusual. Yet that hasn’t dampened the overall enthusiasm for the bout, which promises to be one of the most talked-about fights of the year.
Current UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo was supposed to defend the belt against McGregor, but he injured one of his ribs during a sparring session and pulled out of the bout. McGregor has been building up to this moment for more than two years, winning all five of his UFC fights and four by TKO.
Fortunately, UFC president Dana White had an excellent backup plan in place. Mendes took Aldo to the extreme in their matchup at UFC 179 and came close to knocking the champion out in the first round before losing by unanimous decision.
Mendes and McGregor, along with Aldo, are the class of the featherweight division and are going to carry it into the future. Two of them will wage war on Saturday, setting up a future bout against Aldo that will be must-see television.
Tale of the Tape
Fight Odds
Fight Prediction
McGregor is a knockout machine, with 15 of his 17 career victories coming by dropping an opponent; Mendes isn’t a slouch in that department with seven knockouts, but he’s more precise with eight decision wins.
Yet stats listed by UFC.com show that Mendes is a more accurate striker, connecting on 373 of his 767 attempts. McGregor has hit on 165 of 385 attempts, but he’s got such power that the total volume is significantly lower because he can knock you out in the blink of an eye.
It’s because of that power, as well as McGregor‘s size advantage (three inches taller, eight-inch reach), that the Irishman has the odds in his favor.
However, Jeff Wagenheim of Sports Illustrated did raise a valid point about how UFC has groomed McGregor for his moment in the spotlight:
The promotion carefully matched McGregor with mid-level opponents who mainly preferred to do their fighting on their feet. This made for action-packed showcases, all safely within Conor’s brightly lit comfort zone. McGregor still had to perform, though, and he walked that walk like he belonged on the Hollywood Walk of Fame.
Just looking at the list of opponents McGregor has defeated in five UFC fights, there isn’t one star who will be fighting for titles and in main events for years to come. Dennis Siver is a solid striker who has some nice wins under his belt but never got into the title picture.
Putting McGregor in a fight with someone who has a more diverse skill set, like Mendes, can present problems if those punches aren’t landing early.
Eric Stinton of Sherdog.com broke down the advantage that Mendes will have if the fight takes a certain turn:
…Mendes has the juice to become the first person to take down McGregor. From there, it will be anyone’s guess how the action will go down, since McGregor’s overall ground game, outside of sturdy takedown defense, remains a mystery. Mendes, on the other hand, is a positional grappler who prefers working ground-and-pound to fishing for limbs to snag. His single submission victory came in his second WEC match in 2010, and since then, he has only attempted two more.
Yet even with Mendes‘ wrestling ability possibly negating what makes McGregor so effective, there’s still the matter of getting in close enough to take the 26-year-old down.
This is where McGregor‘s huge size advantage, especially the long reach, comes into play. In order to take someone down, you have to move in close. Moving in on a powerful striker who has a 74-inch reach is asking for trouble.
McGregor has no inhibitions at all in the cage. For all we know, he was born with his fists balled up and arms swinging. The Celtic Tiger wants to hit anything that stands in his way once the Octagon door shuts.
During a conference call, via Lance Pugmire of the Los Angeles Times, McGregor talked about his strategy for the fight:
“He gasses too quick. I [predict] exchanges early. I see him gasping for breath…” McGregor said. “His body is going to be screaming for oxygen and I’m going to be … in his face cracking him with everything I have. Every shot. The heel. The knee. The elbow. The fist. … And that will be that.”
Mendes is regarded as one of the best wrestlers in all of mixed martial arts for a reason. He nearly knocked out the UFC featherweight champion, yet none of that feels like it will be enough against a bigger and stronger opponent on Saturday night.
One thing to keep an eye on is how long the fight lasts. Mendes is no stranger to long, drawn-out battles, with nine of his 19 career fights going the distance (eight wins), including a five-round fight against Aldo.
McGregor has only had one of his 19 career fights go to the third round. It was his second fight in UFC, a decision win over Max Holloway in August 2013. Putting him in a five-round bout with one of the division’s best-conditioned athletes has the potential to go wrong for the rising star.
UFC has wanted McGregor to be in the championship mix for a long time. This is his moment to prove that faith was not misplaced, and he is going to deliver.
McGregor wins via third-round TKO
Read more MMA news on BleacherReport.com