Ten months ago, one of the most egregious injustices in combat sports history occurred. Nick Diaz, accomplished mixed martial artist, former champion and current UFC contender, was suspended (warning, NSFW language) for five years and fined $165,000 by the Nevada State Athletic Commission.
The reason? As Luke Thomas of MMAFighting.com pointed out, a failed drug test of questionable legitimacy:
The rationale? Seemingly none.
The backlash from fans and pundits was swift and savage, as was the response from Diaz’s legal team. With some courtroom wrangling, however, the suspension was reduced to 18 months, and the fine was sliced to $100,000.
Sunday was the final day of that suspension, and with that, Diaz is now a free man. So what comes next for him?
Bleacher Report’s dynamic duo, Steven Rondina and Patrick Wyman, are here to answer that question.
Wyman: So, Steven, the day for which we’ve waited so long has finally arrived: Nick Diaz’s unjust, godawful suspension is over, and the Pride of Stockton can return to the Octagon.
Diaz’s unique personality and exciting style have made him one of the more unexpected draws in the UFC. His fights do big business: Against Georges St-Pierre, for example, Diaz sold 950,000 pay-per-views, per Dave Meltzer of the Wrestling Observer Newsletter (via MMAPayout.com)—the highest mark of the Canadian champion’s career aside from the blockbuster UFC 100 card.
People want to watch Diaz fight, and this puts him in a unique but growing category among his compatriots in the UFC. Diaz is a moneyweight fighter rather than a resident of any particular division, and titles are less relevant to him than big fights with name opponents.
His fight with Anderson Silva made no real sense in the context of a division leading toward a title shot, but it did big business, and it set the template for how the UFC might treat Diaz moving forward.
With that in mind, Steven, whom do you see as the best opponents for Diaz moving forward?
Rondina: Diaz is indeed the first legitimate moneyweight mixed martial artist, but he’s really a welterweight, and unfortunately for him, the divisions bordering welterweight offer very little to work with in terms of potential big-name opponents.
The lightweight division hasn’t been a revenue driver since BJ Penn dropped the title to Frankie Edgar and, as a result, doesn’t have anybody who could move up and complement Diaz’s drawing power. Middleweight is in the same boat (just substitute Anderson Silva and Chris Weidman) and therefore has nobody Diaz would benefit from chasing.
There just aren’t too many “moneyweight” fights there for Diaz to work with. Conor McGregor is quite busy these days. Nick isn’t going to fight his brother, Nate Diaz. And the UFC likely wouldn’t want to set Diaz up with Silva again, given how much of a catastrophe their first fight was.
It stinks, but there aren’t too many good options out there. Because of that, the most obvious choice kind of ends up being the best one. Tyron Woodley called out Diaz after winning the title at UFC 201. That’s the fight to make.
Wyman: First of all, Diaz’s fight with Silva wasn’t a catastrophe. Sure, Silva was popped for performance-enhancing drugs in the aftermath, but it sold a bunch of pay-per-views, provided most of the action it was supposed to and gave us the template for what a moneyweight matchup can look like.
But I’ll concede that middleweight isn’t exactly packed with star power. Using the moneyweight logic, Michael Bisping would be a fantastic option for a fight with Diaz, but the Englishman now holds the 185-pound belt and seems to be locked up in a ridiculous rematch with Dan Henderson in his first defense.
Following that line of reasoning, however, I don’t see how you could justify giving Diaz a shot at Woodley’s newly won title. Frankie Edgar was the lightweight champion the last time Diaz won a fight in October 2011. Dominick Cruz still had his original ACLs, and so did St-Pierre. Henderson was riding a winning streak, for crying out loud.
That’s how long it’s been since Nick Diaz actually had his hand raised in the cage.
Belts are promotional tools, but at some point, we have to draw the line. Moreover, Woodley-Diaz isn’t really a fight I want to see. Big, strong controlling wrestlers have always been Diaz’s kryptonite, and I have a hard time seeing a scenario in which Woodley doesn’t grind him from top position and against the cage for most of the 25-minute distance.
I don’t like the precedent a Diaz-Woodley fight would set, and I hate the stylistic matchup. Sell me on this fight, Steven, or at least toss me a couple of other options.
Rondina: I’m not going to sell you on this fight because it’s basically the best of a bad situation! I don’t think it would be as boring a fight as you do (we haven’t really seen Woodley dominate somebody with his wrestling since Strikeforce Challengers), but it’s not like my mouth is watering over Woodley vs. Diaz, either.
As you said, the best, most entertaining moneyweight option would probably be Bisping. They have the history, they have the personalities, and they have the styles to make a great fight. Unfortunately, Bisping just happens to be busy right now.
The big hang-up here is that Diaz is going to demand seven figures for his next fight, and the UFC isn’t going to splurge like that for a UFC on Fox card (even if he deserves it and even if it would generate the revenue to justify it). That, unfortunately, whittles things down quite a bit.
If this were any other fighter, there would be plenty of options out there for his return fight. Diaz vs. Carlos Condit 2, Diaz vs. Robbie Lawler 2, Diaz vs. Rory MacDonald…the list goes on. I just can’t see Diaz bothering to get out of bed in the morning for any of those.
The only person on the roster who could combine with Diaz for a PPV main event-caliber fight is Woodley. Of course, there is one guy who isn’t on the roster who makes a bit of sense.
Wyman: Before we get to the prospect of the mouth-watering fights, I need to challenge the baseline assumption here, which is that Woodley makes sense from a business perspective. Why? Just because he holds the belt? Being a champion is no guarantee of fan interest these days, and Diaz would be carrying all the promotional weight for that matchup.
By contrast, there’s a lot more to recommend the idea of a rematch with Condit or especially Lawler. While not huge names to casual fans, both have a history with Diaz, both prior fights were entertaining, and they’re more proven draws than Woodley, whose last headlining bout before the title fight with Lawler came on a Strikeforce Challengers card in 2011.
I’d bet almost anything that those fights would do bigger business as pay-per-view headliners than Woodley-Diaz for the welterweight title. They’d also have the benefit of guaranteed action or at least more than we could reasonably expect from a fight between Diaz and our newly crowned champion.
Diaz-Condit 2 or Diaz-Lawler 2 wouldn’t pull a million pay-per-view buys, but 300,000 to 500,000, a good number for the UFC these days, is easily within reach.
But there’s one more option out there, Steven, and I think this is the one you were hinting at: Georges St-Pierre. The Canadian has made repeated overtures (warning, NSFW language) about returning, completing a full training camp earlier this year, and Bisping told Fox Sports’ Jay and Dan (via Bloody Elbow) that St-Pierre reached out about a fight for the middleweight title.
Few fights have ever made more sense. Both Diaz and St-Pierre want a big-name opponent, and the UFC needs headlining bouts that can draw on pay-per-view. Their first fight featured a dramatic build and solid action over the 25-minute distance.
What’s not to like?
Rondina: The only possible rationale against a GSP vs. Diaz 2 would be monocle-wearing, tea-drinking fans wanting to see GSP’s lineal UFC title unified with the actual, physical UFC title around Woodley’s waist. Considering most folks don’t even know what a lineal title is, though, that’s not really a major concern.
GSP vs. Diaz 2 still has all the components that made their first fight a spectacular event. GSP is still the glamorous, idealized Superman of MMA, while Diaz is still the grounded, street-wise Batman. While the rematch has lost a bit of its mainstream relevance by now (much like my Batman vs. Superman reference), it makes up for it with the “what will these guys look like?” angle that helped make Silva vs. Diaz a box office success.
Of course, even though GSP vs. Diaz 2 makes all the sense in the world, there are no guarantees here…which is back to normal, I suppose. Let’s be happy Nick Diaz is back, because regardless of what we get next, I think we’re all happy to have that unique brand of excitement back.
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