Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images
Somewhat surprising odds here as the 40 year old Manny Pacquiao is the favorite over Keith Thurman this Saturday.
Saturday night, boxing presents a marquee PPV match-up when the 40 year old future Hall of Fame fighter Manny Pacquiao takes on one of the best Welterweights in the world, 30 year old Keith Thurman. It’s an interesting fight for a lot of reasons, and it has fans divided. Take a look at the latest odds courtesy of OddsShark:
Manny Pacquiao -160
Keith Thurman +130
Those are very close odds, but interestingly, it’s Pacquiao who is the slight favorite. That’s a switch from where each man stood when odds opened, which had Thurman as the favorite at -141 and Pacquiao at +105. I would guess that had you put odds on this fight a year ago they would have been even wider in favor of One Time. But two things have happened in the past year: 1) Thurman returned from a lengthy layoff and looked less than stellar against Josesito Lopez, very nearly being stopped by the unranked Lopez; 2) Pacquiao turned in a pair of strong performances, first against Lucas Matthysse (which included Pacman’s first stoppage in nine years), then against Adrien Broner. So Pac’s stock is on the rise (amazingly) and Thurman’s is on the fall – the result is a Pacquiao line here.
And to be honest, Thurman as an underdog feels like a great bet, capitalizing on some recency bias and overlooking the great skills he demonstrated in the past (and also overlooking the fact that Pacquiao is 40, and, as they say, time is undefeated). What gives me pause is that this feels like a fight destined for the scorecards, and destined for some sketchy judging. In recent years, poor judging has gone against Pacquiao more often than not, which would again favor a Thurman bet, but the point stands that who wins the fight and who “wins” the fight may not have a lot in common. Caveat emptor.
Here are the odds for the rest of the PPV:
Luis Nery -2500
Juan Carlos Payano +1000Sergey Lipinets -1200
John Molina Jr. +700Yordenia Ugas -400
Omar Figueroa +300
Figueroa at a +300 is an interesting bet. He’s had some spotty performances, but he’s also undefeated, and it’s possible that Ugas’s recent wins aren’t as strong as we think. That one is worth a shot.
Finally, a few other notable fights taking place this busy boxing weekend:
Teofimo Lopez -3000
Masayoshi Nakatani +1100Dillian Whyte -500
Oscar Rivas +350Derek Chisora -350
Artur Szpilka +265
Join Bloody Elbow Saturday night for live fight night coverage of Pacquiao vs. Thurman.