Poirier Vs. Saint Denis Betting Odds, Breakdown, Prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Lightweight sluggers Dustin Poirier and Benoit Saint Denis are set to collide this weekend (Sat., March 9, 2024) at UFC 299 inside Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida.

Poirier may be admitting that the end of his career is approaching, but that doesn’t mean it’s time to put down Old Yeller just yet. “The Diamond” remains one of the very best Lightweights on the planet, and if he repels the fast-rising Frenchman, his title dreams remain alive.

On the other side of the equation, Saint Denis is getting this jump in competition for a reason. The 28-year -ld hasn’t been doing mixed martial arts (MMA) that long and yet is ripping through quality Lightweight competition, which is a sure-fire sign of major talent. Well-rounded and physically gifted, Saint Denis can break back into the title mix with a win here.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images

Poirier vs. Saint Denis Betting Odds

• Dustin Poirier victory: +160
• Dustin Poirier via TKO/KO/DQ: +350
• Dustin Poirier via submission: +1000
• Dustin Poirier via decision: +700
• Benoit Saint Denis victory: -220
• Benoit Saint Denis via TKO/KO/DQ: +300
• Benoit Saint Denis via submission: +150
• Benoit Saint Denis via decision: +650
• Draw: +5000
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Poirier Wins

Poirier is one of the most battle-tested fighters in UFC history. He excels in wars of attrition, blood-and-guts battles that are decided by grit and the ability to retain technique and composure in the most chaotic of situations.

Hitting absurdly hard also helps.

Putting combinations on Saint Denis’ chin is surely the path to victory for “The Diamond.” Saint Denis is plenty tough, but he’s also hittable, and Poirier’s combinations turn off the lights whenever they land. The problem is that Poirier has to stay upright and avoid takedowns in order to land those shots.

The biggest key to keeping this bout a slugfest is avoiding the fence. In recent years, most of the times Poirier has hit the floor, it’s because of the double leg along the fence. If he can negate the pressure of Saint Denis with footwork, he’ll be able to prolong stand up exchanges and land heavy strikes.

How Saint Denis Wins

Saint Denis mauls his opposition, throwing them into a wood chipper of constant offense. The rising French star throws and kicks with serious power, can wrestle at an absurd rate, and has proven himself an expert grappler once able to gain top position. Subsequently, each of his 13 wins come via knockout or submission.

Saint Denis doesn’t want a kickboxing match against Poirier, but he’s certainly equipped to strike with the veteran. He might just have a speed advantage, and more importantly, that power left kick can do wonders in messing up Poirier’s boxing stance. If Saint Denis takes his left leg to the calf rather than its typical body attack, it will force adjustments from the former interim champion.

The bottom line here, however, is that Saint Denis wins by gaining top position. Poirier struggles with chain wrestling along the fence, and Saint Denis absolutely has the skills in that realm to give him trouble. Poirier may thrive in back-and-forth brawls, but endless wrestling matches have never been his strong suit.

At 35 years of age, that’s unlikely to suddenly change.

Poirier Vs. Saint Denis Prediction

Predicting this fight is quite a challenge.

On one hand, Poirier is one of the best Lightweights of the last 10 years. His resume is outrageous, filled with the names of champions and top talents. There have always been flaws on paper regarding his wrestling defense, yet only two of the best Lightweights in history (Khabib and Oliveira) were actually able to turn those issues into victories. While Saint Denis is obviously gifted, he’s also never faced anyone close to the level of “The Diamond.”

At the same time, Saint Denis is really good. He’s tearing through skilled Lightweights with ease, and he’s seven years younger than Poirier with a tenth of the fight mileage. Stylistically, his wrestling output seems primed to make Poirier’s life miserable, and “God Of War” has all the momentum on his side.

Ultimately, I’m on board the Saint Denis hype train. Nothing is ever guaranteed in the Lightweight shark tank, but I believe he has championship potential. Huge upside and a stylistic edge are hard to side against, particularly when the veteran Poirier is coming off a knockout loss and talking about potential retirement.

Prediction: Saint Denis via submission (+150)

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 299 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPN at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

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