2015 was a bad year to be a reigning UFC champion. Like, really bad.
Holly Holm picked apart woman’s bantamweight juggernaut Ronda Rousey, who lost for the first time in her MMA career. A single punch courtesy of the braggadocious Conor McGregor took down featherweight kingpin Jose Aldo, who hadn’t lost in over 10 years.
But wait, there’s more. Much more.
Fabricio Werdum completely outclassed a man considered by some as the greatest heavyweight fighter of all time in Cain Velasquez. Rafael dos Anjos equally outclassed the always flashy (but lacking durability) Anthony Pettis, who handed over his lightweight crown.
Anderson Silva slayer Chris Weidman finally met his match and then some at middleweight in the form of hulking Luke Rockhold.
Jon Jones didn’t lose his belt inside the cage. But he managed to lose his belt nonetheless. The UFC stripped Jones of the light heavyweight title due to the much-publicized legal quagmire he found himself in. His nemesis Daniel Cormier bested Anthony Johnson to claim the vacated crown.
The trend continued into 2016.
Welterweight stalwart Robbie Lawler faced off against Carlos Condit in January in a fight-of-the-year candidate. While Lawler left the the cage champion status in tow, the majority of those watching their slugfest, including UFC President Dana White, thought Condit had gotten the better of him.
A few weeks later, former bantamweight top dog Dominic Cruz reclaimed the crown he never lost (the UFC stripped him of the title due to not being able to defend it via one injury after another) by outpointing T.J. Dillashaw in another razor-close contest where a vocal minority had Dillashaw winning.
And that brings us up to March, where we just witnessed one of the great title fight finishes in UFC history. Holm, on her way to defending the belt she’d kicked away from Rousey, coughed up her newly captured champ status when Miesha Tate chocked her out with just 90 seconds remaining in their fight.
So, yeah. Holding onto championship status in the UFC is no small feat. Turnover is becoming par for the course. If you look at the above chart, five of the 10 current champs have yet to defend their belts (Werdum, Rockhold, McGregor, Cruz and Tate), while only one champ has defended more than three times (Johnson).
Let’s dust off our crystal ball and prognosticate who’ll be UFC champ in every weight class by end of 2016. Our guess is probably as good as anyone’s, as more parity is starting to creep into mixed martial arts.
Woman’s Strawweight (115 pounds)
Current 115-pound champ Joanna Jedrzejczyk (11-0) looks close to unbeatable. But every dominant champ looks that way until someone like Holly Holm or Chris Weidman comes along and punches the reset button.
There is one woman who pushed her to the limit before she was sporting gold. Claudia Gadelha (13-1) battled Jedrzejczyk back in 2014. She lost via split decision, although, as is the case with many judges’ decisions, there was controversy, as many thought Gadelha had gotten the better of Jedrzejczyk.
The two will rematch this July at The Ultimate Fighter 23 Finale after 12 weeks of work as rival coaches. This fight will likely come down to who’s improved more since their first encounter.
We’ll give the edge to champ. If Jedrzejczyk can get past her toughest test ever in Gadelha, look for her to coast through the second half of 2016 and into 2017.
Official prediction: Jedrzejczyk will get by Gadelha in what should be a grueling battle and will be the UFC’s strawweight champion at the end of 2016 and very likely for all of 2017, too.
Woman’s Bantamweight (135 pounds)
Ronda Rousey (12-1) was chewing through her competition like a vegan through kale salad. It felt like she would be champion until she retired.
Holly Holm (10-1) was supposed to be just one more challenger. She hadn’t even looked overly impressive in her first two UFC bouts, but when the two met, Holm shut down Rousey‘s hard-charging style and then proceeded to have her way with the champ, finishing the fight with the kick to the face that sent Rousey back to the Stone Age.
And then Holm went and lost to perennial top contender Miesha Tate (18-5); Tate of course has lost twice to Rousey (once in the UFC and once back in Strikeforce).
Conventional wisdom has Tate fighting Rousey later on this year. But we don’t know exactly when Rousey will to return to action; it’s possible Tate and Holm might rematch before then. So predicting which woman will be holding the belt by year’s end is a bit of a coin flip.
A lot of it has to do with who fights whom and when. It would make sense to book Tate vs. Rousey at UFC 200 in July. But Rousey may not be ready. And while both Tate and Holm may want to rematch at UFC 200, the UFC will likely do everything it can to convince Tate to wait on Rousey.
Official prediction: Rousey fights Tate in the fall of 2016. She beats Tate by submission and enters 2017 as champion and hopefully rematch Holm in the spring.
Flyweight (125 pounds)
No champion holds on forever but Demetrius Johnson (23-2) has been thumping his competition since the fall of 2012, when he bested Joseph Benavidez to become the UFC’s inaugural flyweight champion. He’s gone 7-0 since then, beating Benavidez once again along with beating the formidable John Dodson twice.
Up next for Johnson is former Olympic gold medalist Henry Cejudo (10-0). Cejudo is youngest American wrestler to ever win an Olympic gold medal in freestyle wrestling and has quickly established himself as one of the best flyweights in MMA. But none of that may matter when he goes up against one of the most complete fighters of all time.
Official prediction: Not only will Johnson be champ through all of 2016 but he’ll likely be be brandishing gold for years to come. At least, he will until his Chris Weidman or Holly Holm finally comes along.
Men’s Bantamweight (135 pounds)
As mentioned above T.J. Dillashaw (12-3) gave way to the triumphant return of Dominick Cruz (21-1). Cruz’s long hard road back to the top is truly one of the great redemption stories in all of sports.
No one can question Cruz’s heart or technical prowess at this point. It’s simply a matter of if the best bantamweight fighter of all time can stay healthy. He’s only fought twice since the fall of 2012 (vs. Takeya Mizugaki in 2014 and then Dillashaw in 2016).
Dillashaw will be gunning to for his revenge. Dodson recently moved up to bantamweight. You’ve also got one of the brightest prospects in the sport in Aljamain Sterling (12-0) who’ll be knocking on the door soon. Up next though Cruz will battle Uriah Faber (33-8) at UFC 199 in June in what will complete their trilogy.
Official prediction: Cruz should be able to get the better of Faber and will likely rematch Dillashaw before the end of 2016. That fight is as close to a coin flip as it gets. But we’ll give the edge to Cruz as he’s still got the more tools in his tool bag.
Featherweight (145 pounds)
Recently minted featherweight champ Conor McGregor (19-3) tasted defeat for the first time in his UFC career when he moved up in weight and got slapped around by Nate Diaz. He’ll likely lick his wounds, come back to earth, and defend his 145-pound strap vs. Jose Aldo (25-2) in a rematch, or the more deserving Frankie Edgar (20-4).
It’ll be up to McGregor who he picks. He’s already beaten Aldo but that doesn’t mean Aldo can’t get the better of him in a rematch. McGregor may want to avoid Edgar’s combination of wrestling and volume punching. But Edgar has taken a lot of damage in his career and McGregor‘s got that devastating left hand.
McGregor will mostly likely fight one of them at UFC 200 in July, unless he throws us a curveball. And that’ll leave enough time in the 2016 calendar for another featherweight title fight. So we could see McGregor vs. Aldo 2 and then McGregor vs. Edgar. Like at woman’s bantamweight, it’s easy to see any one of three top fighters holding the belt by the end of 2016.
Official prediction: While part of us wants to go with Edgar, we’ll stick with McGregor.
Lightweight (155 pounds)
Current champ Rafael dos Anjos (25-7) was supposed to face featherweight champ Conor McGregor at UFC 196 but he suffered a foot injury that forced him to pull out. In the aftermath of McGregor‘s loss to Nate Diaz, the Irishman is talking about going back down to featherweight to defend his belt while dos Anjos has proposed a superfight with welterweight champ Robbie Lawler. Got all that?
Whether or not dos Anjos does move up to fight Lawler is irrelevant to this article as we’re interested in who will be holding the lightweight strap at the end of the year.
Dos Anjos will at some point fight the winner of Khabib Nurmagomedov (22-0) vs. Tony Ferguson (20-3).
That No. 1 contender’s fight will is taking place at UFC on Fox 19 in April. Whoever emerges from that fight will likely get the next title shot. Unless the UFC decides to go with Eddie Alvarez (who recently edged out former champ Anthony Pettis.
Official prediction: Khabib Nurmagomedov. This is going out on a limb of course. Many have felt for years now that Nurmagomedov would eventually go on to be champ but injury after injury has hampered his progress. But if he can stay healthy, and get by a tough Ferguson, he’s got the inside track. He already holds a win over dos Anjos; his last fight actually from April of 2014.
Welterweight
Georges St-Pierre (25-2) once owned this division, holding the belt for over 2,000 days, before deciding to take what may end up being a permanent break from the sport. Johnny Hendricks (17-4) beat Robbie Lawler (27-10) to claim the vacated belt only to hand it over to Lawler in a rematch.
Lawler has looked pretty formidable since, beating Rory MacDonald and then Carlos Condit (30-9).
Welterweight is up in the air as of now. Will the UFC book Lawler vs. dos Anjos at UFC 200? Will Georges St-Pierre make his long awaited return at UFC 200? Will the UFC book a rematch between Lawler and Condit?
Official prediction: With so much yet to be determined, we’ll play it safe and stick with Lawler. But if Steven Thompson (12-1) get by MacDonald at Fight Night 89 in June, there’s a very good chance he’ll get a title shot vs. Lawler before the end of 2016. If that’s the case, we’ll officially switch our pick to Wonderboy.
Middleweight
After finishing the great Anderson Silva twice, and then following up those performances with stoppage wins over Lyoto Machida and Vitor Belfort, it looked like Chris Weidman (13-1) might be poised for a long run as the 185-pound champ. Luke Rockhold (15-2) was hearing none of that.
Their title fight at UC 194 was a close affair before Rockhold caught a lazy kick from Weidman, took him down and beat the stuffing out of him. Weidman‘s coach claimed his fighter came into the fight with a fractured foot. They’ll rematch at UFC 199 in June. Will a healthy Weidman turn the tables on Rockhold?
Official prediction: We don’t know if Weidman actually had a broken foot or not. If he did, that’s obviously a huge factor. Rockhold looks quite sinister between his stand up and ground game. We’ll go with the current champ but wouldn’t be surprised in the least if Weidman evens things up.
Light Heavyweight
Jon Jones (21-1) is officially back. And he thinks Daniel Cormier (17-1) has just been keeping his seat warm in his absence. Cormier is one of the best fighters in all of mixed martial arts. Unlucky for him he happens to compete in the same weight class as Jones.
Jones already holds a win over Cormier, and it’s hard to see a rematch going much differently. If anything it feels like a beefed up and totally focused Jones might actually get a finish over Cormier at UFC 197 in April.
If he gets his belt back, look for Jones to defend it against Anthony Johnson (21-5) in the second half of 2016. Johnson is an absolute terror in the striking department, but often fades as the fight goes on. He’ll have to T(KO) Jones in the first round to get the job done.
Official prediction: Jon Jones will be your light heavyweight champion until he decides to vacate it. He’ll eventually move up to heavyweight, and like Conor McGregor, may try and keep his main belt while chasing after a second belt in a weight class up.
Heavyweight
Who could have predicted that at ripe old age of 38-years-old Fabricio Werdum (20-5-1) would be your UFC heavyweight champion? Just about no one is the correct answer. But Werdum had been coming into his own as a complete mixed martial artist over the last few years—all culminating in the fall of 2015 when he unseated long reigning champ Cain Velasquez (13-2) is dramatic fashion.
He was supposed to rematch Velasquez in February, but the perpetually injured former champ was forced to pull out and in stepped surging contender Stipe Mioic (14-2). Those two will do battle in May at UFC 198. That’ll mean there will likely be one more UFC heavyweight title fight in 2016.
Will Werdum look as good against Mioic as he did against Velasquez? Will the younger fighter be able to out-box and out-clinch the champ? If Werdum holds onto his belt he’ll likely either be facing the winner of Ben Rothwell vs. Junior dos Anjos or Alistair Overeem vs. Andrei Alrovski (those fights are scheduled for April and May respectively). If Overeem (40-14) is victorious look for him to get the call over the Rothwell-JDS winner. Werdum-Overeem would be a rematch of their 2011 fight in Strikeforce.
Official prediction: You never know when age will catch up with a fighter. Just ask Anderson Silva. Werdum is looking like a man possessed. So we’ll stick with him to finish out 2016 as champ.
Looking over our predictions, they’re not so bold. All told, we’re only predicting two new champs by the end of 2016: Rousey (woman’s bantamweight) and Nurmagomedov (lightweight). And those are shaky picks for obvious reasons (can Rousey get back to her previous form and can Nurmagomedov stay healthy).
Chances are we’re not predicting enough upsets though.
Weidman and Dillashaw could easily get his belt back. Mioic could prove to be stylistic kryptonite for a much older Werdum. Lawler and McGregor are certainly beatable fighters. Even Jedrzejczyk is vulnerable in her next match up. About the only two locks feel like Jones and Johnson but their both facing two of the top contenders in the sport.
If 2016 finishes up as chaotic as 2015/the first quarter of 2016, then MMA fans are in for a wild ride and the sport as a whole will most certainly be in the grips of it’s greatest parity to date.
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