Esther Lin, MMA Fighting
Ultimate Fighting Championships (UFC) returns to the ESPN airwaves for the second time in two weeks this Sat. (Aug. 3), hitting Newark, New Jersey’s Prudential Center with a pivotal Welterweight battle at the helm.
Former Interim Welterweight Champion Colby Covington faces former teammate Robbie Lawler in the main event in an effort to stand out among the divisional logjam. Fifteen pounds south, Jim Miller faces Clay Guida in a decidedly retro battle and Joaquim “Netto BJJ” Silva attempts to halt the rise of top prospect Nasrat Haqparast.
Our usual main card guy is currently on a high-flying quest to save his lover from the dastardly Dr. Fetus, so I’m up to bat once again. As always, we’ve got “Prelims” analysis here and here, plus some betting breakdowns here.
Shall we?
170 lbs.: Colby “Chaos” Covington (14-1) vs. Robbie Lawler (28-13)
Being a lovable asshole is a lot harder than movies make it out to be. There’s a craft to it, a certain roguish charm required to come off as a puckish rapscallion instead of just, you know, a prick. Hell, just look at Chael Sonnen; objectively, he’s a drug cheat with a criminal record and a long history of objectionable statements, yet he’s also a beloved figure in this sport.
Regardless of whether you agree with Covington’s political views, I think it’s safe to say that he doesn’t quite measure up on the heel front. Dude can definitely fight, though.
A bottomless gas tank and a willingness to make a fight completely unwatchable in pursuit of victory are skills that Lawler looks to struggle with. It’s easy to forget that the “Ruthless” one barely squeaked by Johny Hendricks in their rematch and, despite their nuclear barnburner of a finale, gave away rounds to Carlos Condit through sheer lack of activity. I can easily see Covington racking up an insurmountable point lead through constant pressure and fence grinding even if consistently establishing top control proves too much for him.
I’ve seen a preview suggesting that Covington’s greatest challenge will come in the early going, but I see the difficulty coming when Lawler says “f*** it” and starts throwing heat in the final round, as he is wont to do. That just opens him up to more double-legs, unfortunately; Covington won’t stick his neck out any further than he needs to.
Lawler always has a puncher’s chance and Rafael Dos Anjos’ striking success against Covington gives me a bit of hope, but inconsistent punch output seems like a riskier investment than constant, unrelenting grind. Covington wins a snoozer.
Prediction: Covington by unanimous decision
155 lbs.: Jim Miller (30-13) vs. Clay “The Carpenter” Guida (35-18)
Predicting modern Jim Miller fights is tricky, because it’s hard to figure out which of his issues are from general decline and which of them were caused by the Lyme disease he didn’t know about until recently. Despite my best efforts, I’ve yet to secure a clarifying interview with the tick that bit him.
Whatever the case, his recent successes came from hurting and outwrestling his opponents, neither of which seems terribly feasible against Guida. Guida can still spoil with the best of them and still has the gas tank to be a pest for 15 minutes or more. Though the lesser striker of the two, his furious pace and ostensible takedown edge make this a very doable assignment.
Guida’s submission defense has historically failed him, so Miller could certainly end this if he gets on top even once. I just don’t see that happening. Guida out-grinds and out-hustles him en route to a decision.
Prediction: Guida by unanimous decision
155 lbs.: Joaquim “Netto BJJ” Silva (11-1) vs. Nasrat Haqparast (10-2)
“Netto BJJ” has got to be up there among the most misleading nicknames in the sport. Silva’s definitely skilled on the mat, but he’s spent his Octagon time marching forward and looking to break faces. He’s a gritty, powerful slugger who makes up for his technical striking deficiencies with sheer bloody-mindedness.
Unfortunately, sheer bloody-mindedness isn’t quite enough against a faster, crisper, and more accurate striker.
Haqparast looks like both Kelvin Gastelum and a blue-chip prospect, a punishing southpaw boxer with lethal hands. I don’t see any prolonged striking engagements going Silva’s way, and his general reluctance/inability to actually use his titular submission skills precludes a repeat of Haqparast’s loss to the grind-happy Marcin Held. So long as the German paces himself and doesn’t lose confidence after his first few broadsides fail to put a dent in the Brazilian’s chin, this seems to be a stylistic dream for him.
This is less a tactical chess match and more a battle of Silva’s durability against Haqparast’s stamina. After seeing Haqparast maintain his pace in high-volume battles with Marc Diakiese and Thibault Gouti, I have plenty of faith in the latter. Haqparast chews him up standing for a late finish.
Prediction: Haqparast by third-round TKO
185 lbs.: Trevin “The Problem” Giles (11-1) vs. Gerald “GM3” Meerschaert (28-11)
There are UFC fighters whose abilities seem to fluctuate from fight to fight, but I’m hard-pressed to think of someone with a greater amplitude than Meerschaert. He spends all of his Octagon time looking either brilliant or terrible, with not a second spent in between. He started his UFC career 4-1, racking up two post-fight bonuses and dominating someone I was super high on in Oskar Piechota, then flat-out embarrassed himself against Jack Hermansson and Kevin Holland.
Seriously, the Holland fight was bad. Holland fought the dumbest, most self-defeating fight imaginable and Meerschaert still couldn’t beat him.
Giles, meanwhile, is pretty dang consistent. Good power, solid wrestling, strong overall athleticism and technique. He did get clipped and stopped by Zak Cummings last time, but he hadn’t fought in a year and a half and was doing well against a dangerous opponent beforehand.
I’ll take the guy with the higher mean over the guy with the higher maximum.
Meerschaert’s horrible fight IQ and poor wrestling ostensibly make him easy pickings for “The Problem.” So long as Giles doesn’t burn himself out hunting an early finish like Eric Spicely and Piechota did, he should dominate everywhere. He pounds out a gassed Meerschaert late in the second or partway through the third.
Prediction: Giles by third-round TKO
155 lbs.: Scott “Hot Sauce” Holtzman (13-3) vs. Dong Hyun “Maestro” Ma (16-9)
This just seems like a really bad matchup for Ma; Holtzman is by far the physically stronger and harder-hitting of the two, making brawling a terrible idea, and doesn’t appear to be a sufficiently overpowering takedown artist to exploit Holtzman’s lingering wrestling issues. “Hot Sauce’s” huge athleticism edge just seems like more than Ma can deal with; gutsiness and mid-tier grappling aren’t enough against a physical disparity of this magnitude.
I’m trying to think of more to say to pad this out, but that really seems to be all of it. Ma will struggle to bring Holtzman to the mat and is hopelessly outgunned on the feet. Expect a customarily brave effort from the “Maestro” before Holtzman bludgeons him into submission.
Prediction: Holtzman by second-round TKO
205 lbs.: Darko Stosic (13-2) vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu (6-1)
Darko Stosic was on my list of the best UFC fighters to debut in 2018, so you can imagine my disappointment with his tepid performance against Devin Clark earlier this year. If he can’t beat the underachieving Nzechukwu, a move back to Heavyweight would be in order.
The “African Savage” boasts considerable edges in height and reach which, if used well, could completely defuse Stosic, who struggled to close the distance against Clark. Unfortunately, Nzechukwu tends to push his punches and doesn’t always have the best range management, leaving him open to Stosic’s heavy hands and crushing leg kicks. On the flip side, Nzechukwu’s takedown defense is generally stout, which takes away Stosic’s fearsome ground-and-pound.
Like the oddsmakers, I see this as a coin flip. Both have clear avenues of victory if they can make the necessary adjustments from their recent losses. In the final analysis, though, Nzechukwu just gets hit too much to survive a power slugger of this caliber. So long as Stosic is confident enough in his gas tank to maintain his advance, he should clip the taller man sometime in the first.
Prediction: Stosic by first-round TKO
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC on ESPN 5 fight card this weekend (click here), starting with the ESPN “Prelims” scheduled for 12 p.m. ET and continuing on with the main card at 3 p.m. ET.
For more on “Covington vs. Lawler” and all of the UFC’s myriad offerings on ESPN, check out our comprehensive archive here.