LAS VEGAS — UFC 189 is called The McGregor Show for good reason. The sea of Irish green that’s suddenly flooded the Las Vegas Strip can attest to that. But nestled below the spectacle sits a mighty fine helping of welterweight violence, as Robbie Lawler puts his UFC strap on the line against Rory MacDonald in a rematch of a crackling 2013 contest that saw Lawler stun Canada’s soft-spoken son en route to claiming a split decision that few ever saw coming.
Much has changed in the 20 months since that first fight. Lawler blazed a trail to one of mixed martial arts’ most unexpected and uplifting comeback stories, capturing the UFC title with newfound aggression that occasionally bordered on insanity. MacDonald, meanwhile, fashioned the loss into fuel to at last emerge as the top-tier contender he always seemed destined to become. It’s as compelling of a rematch as one can find in this sport, and the odds have ping-ponged all week to reflect the true pick’em nature of the fight. So to add onto the fun, we’ve asked another slew of pros to weigh-in and call their shot for Saturday’s co-main event. Enjoy.
Daniel Cormier: I got Robbie, man. You know, I watched that last fight just the other night, which, it was a great fight. And it’s unbelievable how this fight is getting overlooked. But dude, when Robbie Lawler gets mad and gets physical with Rory, Rory pretty much s–ts his pants. He just starts diving for shots and he panics.
If Robbie does that, if Robbie fights Rory as he did Johny Hendricks, Rory can be in a lot of trouble. And I think that’s all Robbie knows at this point, is fighting as he fought Hendricks. So I pick Robbie Lawler. I think he’ll retain.
Ben Rothwell: Robbie Lawler is my boy. He’s going to go in there and knock this motherf–ker out.
Gunnar Nelson: Rory is going to win this time. I think Rory has a wider skill set. Robbie is very tough fighter, and if you haven’t fought him, you’re going to get in there and it’s going to be tough. That’s how it was the first time, and he lost that fight. But I think this time, he’s already gone against Robbie once and he has a lot more weapons. So I think he’s going to be able to defeat Robbie Lawler.
Jorge Masvidal: I got Robbie all day, man. All day. He did it the first time and I think he’s going to do it even better this time. I think he’s just going to put the pressure on him and break him. I think he might even stop him late in the fight.
Dustin Poirier: Of course Lawler, because he’s the champ. He’s already beaten this guy and he’s way better than he was when he beat him. He’s a workhorse, man. He’s always working on small things, tedious things in the gym. He’s fun to be around. Lawler, for sure.
Kenny Florian: It’s a tough one, man. I always said, I will never doubt Robbie Lawler again. However, I think now is the time for Rory MacDonald. He’s really putting his skills together, and I think mentally he’s a different fighter than what he was before. He learned a lot from that first fight against Robbie Lawler, so I’m going to go with Rory MacDonald. I think he gets it done. I don’t think there’s another fighter on the planet who can beat Robbie Lawler at 170 pounds — I think Rory is probably the only one, and I think he wins.
Jeremy Stephens: I’m going to go with Robbie, man. I’m an Iowa boy and I’m going with Robbie all the way.
Tim Means: I’ve been a Lawler fan since he fought Nick Diaz way back in the day. I was watching that fight back home when I was, like, 17. So I’m going to have to go with Lawler on that one. I like his style and I just like the guy overall.
Frank Mir: It’s very difficult to call. I think Rory is very talented, a very great athlete who has phenomenal takedowns. But I think that Lawler is just gritty. He’s hard to take down. He’s very hard to get on the ground, and he’s always looking to violently try and hit you very hard. I think Rory has always been a little bit suspect when getting caught with hard shots, and knowing that, Lawler is very hard to put away.
The only way I’ve seen Lawler get finished that I can think of is just submissions. People aren’t knocking him out. Nick Diaz was kind of a freaky one, so there’s one. But as a rule of thumb, he can take a beating. So over five rounds, I think he makes a connection. But that one is a hard one. I wouldn’t put money on it.
Brandon Thatch: S–t, man. I like both guys. I’ve trained with Rory and he’s an animal. I like Rory, he’s a nice guy. And I’ve been a fan of Robbie Lawler for a long time. I don’t even want to pick that one. But I think Rory is really hungry right now. He’s got that get-back mentality. He’s got to get that payback, so I’m going to go with Rory.
Cezar Ferreira: That’s going to be a war. Man, I don’t know. It’s like a surprise, but I think Lawler is going to win.
Anthony Johnson: Robbie, dog. I have a lot of respect for Robbie, because to me, he has a story just like mine. He started from the bottom and worked his way up, knocking fools’ heads off left and right, going through the battles, going through the fire, and he became champ. I hope he keeps that title. I love his style. I love his style, but Rory has a different style, for sure. He’s got more of a, he’s got a nice flow to his stuff, you know what I’m saying? So I know Rory will go out there and give him a test. He’s going to test him. But Robbie, to me, is on another level. That man is on fire.
Joseph Benavidez: Oh man, that’s good fight. It’s hard to look at that fight. I mean, Robbie already beat him so you have to give the advantage to him. He beat him last time, and he’s looked good in every fight. Rory, obviously there’s revenge factors there. It’s mental, the vengeance part of it. But you know, I always give the advantage to the champions, just because they’re champion for a reason.
Matt Brown: Robbie. He beat him once, so that’s really the only reason. This sport comes down to match-ups a lot of times. Obviously he can do it once, so I don’t know why he couldn’t do it again. He has five rounds to land that big punch. He only had three rounds the first time and he got it.
Kevin Lee: I’m going to go Rory. I think Rory gets either a late stoppage or a decision. You know Rory, he comes with Firas Zahabi. Firas is a master game-planner. They’re going to look at that first tape, they’re going to go back and they’re going to make the necessary adjustments.
And Robbie is just a guy, he just gets in there and he fights. When you put gameplan versus the fighter mentality, especially when they’ve already had that fight before — Rory is somebody who doesn’t mind executing that gameplan to the tee while Robbie goes off of emotion, so I think Rory will take it, an easy, kind of boring decision probably. But a decision nonetheless.
Michelle Waterson: Robbie. I just like Robbie. I’m a fan of Robbie Lawler.
John Howard: I’m going Robbie. Robbie is a great striker. He’s very hard to take down. He’s hard to keep down. And he beat Rory before. I know Rory was injured when that fight happened, but I just think Robbie is a better striker and he’s harder to take down, so I’m going with Robbie on this one.
Dennis Bermudez: I got Robbie. I like Robbie, man. He’s tough, man. I’ve seen him get clipped by Hendricks and he was just standing there, smiling and throwing it back. Like, jesus. He’s ruthless.
Cathal Pendred: Agh, I’m a big Robbie fan. I really hope Robbie wins. But if I was to put my money on it, I would think Rory. I just think he’s a bit more complete. The only advantage Robbie has is mentally. I think Rory can be a little bit wishy-washy. Robbie is an unbelievable fighter — I really hope Robbie wins — but I think Rory is one of the few guys who’s under 30 in the top-15 and I think he’s going to be around for a while.
Brad Pickett: I’ve got Robbie. He’s a champion. He’s confident now. He’s had a little bit of time off to recoup his body, he’s training really well. It’s going to be a great fight, because Rory MacDonald is a great opponent, but I’m going to have to go with Robbie.
Rose Namajunas: I think Rory is really talented, but Robbie Lawler seems to be stronger and more experienced, so I give it to him.
Stipe Miocic: I think Rory gets better every fight. And Lawler, he’s been around, man. Lawler hits hard. Rory is just one of those guys, he’s such a good, technical fighter, he has such a good gameplan when he comes into a fight. But I just have to say, I think if Lawler does what he does every fight, just bring the fight to you, put the pressure on, it’s going to be a long night for Rory.
Johny Hendricks: If I’m Robbie Lawler, I want to fight on the inside. I want to get inside, I want to bring it in the fight, just like it was in the third round of the first fight. Right? Bring it in close, hit him a couple times, put him on his back. And if I’m Rory MacDonald, I want to keep him at range like he has in his last few fights. Keep him at range, throw kicks, and if they do move inside his comfort zone, use your wrestling to take him down.
Now, who can stop that? If Rory MacDonald can stop Robbie Lawler from getting inside, it leans more towards Rory MacDonald. If Rory MacDonald can’t stop Robbie Lawler from getting inside of his range, then it starts leaning more towards Robbie Lawler. So that’s sort of the big question. Who knows? I don’t care. I want to fight either one of them.