One of the hottest MMA fighters on the planet defends her title in her challenger’s home country this weekend, when UFC women’s bantamweight champion Ronda Rousey travels to Brazil to face Bethe Correia.
Of course, Rousey is a big enough star to get a friendly welcome, even when she travels abroad to fight a local star. Her tweet this week is the sort of comment we’d expect from a visiting pop star but not a visiting fighter:
Few athletes of any kind have received more attention than “Rowdy” Rousey over the past couple of years. She starred in one movie in 2014, had two this year and already has another scheduled for release in 2016. Meanwhile, the Olympic bronze medalist in judo has marched through every opponent placed in front of her, stopping all 11 of her professional opponents, with only one making it out of the first round.
Her next opponent, Correia, is undefeated as well, but she’s done it in far less impressive fashion, stopping just two of the nine women she has defeated. Seven of the 11 opponents faced by Rousey are still ranked in the UFC top 10 at 135 pounds, while none of Correia‘s are.
So it’s not surprising that Rousey comes into this one as a prohibitive favorite. Odds Shark has her as a 1-16 favorite, with Correia slotted as an 8-1 underdog.
On Twitter over the weekend, Brad Taschuk posed the rhetorical question that just begs to be asked:
Of course, the UFC is in a tough spot in regard to marketing Rousey. She’s the biggest star on its roster and attracts pay-per-view customers who would not normally purchase a fight broadcast. So it has to keep her active.
On the other hand, she’s run out of credible opponents at this point. Women’s MMA simply hasn’t developed fast enough to keep up with her.
On the men’s side of the sport, new potential stars emerge every year. If a 135-pound male fighter really and truly cleans out his division, he jumps to 145. That’s not an option for Rousey.
For now, at least, it seems not to matter. Rousey‘s own star power is sufficient to hype fights, at least to judge from some of the comments being made on Twitter. I assume fan Mark Cruickshank was sincere when he tweeted:
I see no indication that fan Justin Cheek is being cheeky when he tweets:
While I can’t help wondering how low his personal “chills bar” is set, he’s not alone. Justin Russo tweeted his own extremely high expectations for this weekend:
Over the history of combat sports, certain fighters have been able to achieve a level of fandom where it’s an event every time they compete, regardless of who they face. It was like that for Mike Tyson in the 1980s. It’s like that now for undefeated middleweight boxing champion Gennady Golovkin.
And it’s certainly like that for Rousey. Fans don’t really expect a competitive bout when she fights. They know she’s going to come into the ring with a scowl on her face and make quick work of an overmatched opponent.
MMAFighting.com’s Dave Doyle made this interesting observation last week:
So even facing one of the least compelling opponents she’s ever seen, Rousey‘s own rising star is probably going to carry this event to successful sales numbers.
Just don’t expect a competitive fight. Earlier this week, Correia told MMAJunkie.com through an interpreter that she planned to beat Rousey using her boxing, noting that Rousey had “never really shown her boxing.”
However, by pointing that out, Correia really just draws attention to the fact that nobody has been able to force Rousey into a protracted, stand-up fight. If you can hit Rousey, she can grab you. And if she can grab you, she can send you for a ride.
In the same MMAJunkie.com article, UFC heavyweight champion Fabricio Werdum noted that if Correia believes in herself, “there’s always the chance to win.”
It’s a nice thought, but almost nobody is predicting Correia will actually win. Fox Sports’ Elias Cepeda didn’t want to overlook Correia‘s striking skill in his analysis, but he still picked Rousey by Round 3 submission.
Cepeda‘s article also contains a video segment with UFC light heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier and former contender Kenny Florian. After providing a thorough fight breakdown, including an explanation of what Correia would need to do to win, they still both picked Rousey by submission with no hesitation.
It’s been tempting for people anxious to sell this fight to point to cases of famous upsets. They certainly happen. The reason Werdum was even interviewed for the MMAJunkie.com article is because of his shocking submission upset of Fedor Emelianenko in 2010.
In the Fox Sports video, Cormier mentions Buster Douglas’ 40-1 upset of Mike Tyson in 1990.
But neither of those fights are in any way similar to Rousey vs. Correia. Werdum wasn’t extremely well-known among U.S. fans in 2010, but he was a world-class heavyweight MMA fighter and a highly skilled black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Douglas came into his fight with Tyson having beaten two straight world titlists in Trevor Berbick and Oliver McCall.
Correia never even started training in martial arts until after graduating from college. Rousey, on the other hand, has been learning to throw people on their heads and snap their arms since she was old enough to walk.
Rousey is already well on her way to establishing herself as a great legend of the fighting sports. But her own evolution is so far beyond the current state of the sport that she might retire without ever having a competitive fight.
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