Luke Rockhold vs. Tim Kennedy
Headlining the Strikeforce card on Saturday night is a middleweight title fight between champion Luke Rockhold and challenger Tim Kennedy. Rockhold has earned eight straight victories after suffering his only loss in his second career fight. His last two victories have been his most impressive coming against Ronaldo Souza and Keith Jardine. Kennedy has put together back to back victories over Melvin Manhoef and Robbie Lawler after losing a championship fight against Souza.
Rockhold comes in with momentum after dominating Jardine and finishing him via TKO in the first round. But his victory before that against Souza to win the belt was even more impressive. Souza is one of the better fighters in the middleweight division and Rockhold managed to keep the fight mostly on the feet and battered him from there. He has shown an increasingly diversified striking game combined with a defensive wrestling and scrambling ability that allow him to take advantage of his strengths in the standup. He will look to do just that against Kennedy who prefers to take fighters down and work for submission. Kennedy is a good striker but Rockhold should have the advantage and as long as he can keep the fight standing, he should be able to earn the victory. Kennedy will be tough to finish but if he does it, that would be another impressive statement. More likely is a unanimous decision after five rounds of high level striking.
Kennedy’s biggest asset to this point in his career has been his grappling. He has found the most success by taking his opponents down and working for submissions. He has also shown some excellent ground and pound. If he wants to use those skills, he has a tough task as Rockhold has shown excellent takedown defense and Kennedy isn’t a great wrestler. He will need to mix in his takedowns with his striking and time his shots as counters to Rockhold’s striking to have the best chance of success. He will also need to work hard to keep Rockhold down as he has shown an excellent ability to get back to his feet once on he hits the ground. If Kennedy can get Rockhold down and keep him there, he can win this fight. But that will be difficult to do and he will need to keep Rockhold guessing and off balance in order to do it.
Rockhold is the big favorite at -310 with Kennedy at +255. This fight sets up in Rockhold’s favor as he should be able to defends against Kennedy’s takedowns and keep the fight standing. If that happens, Rockhold should have the advantage and strike his way to a victory. But if Kennedy can somehow find a way to get the fight to the mat and control Rockhold , he could pull of the upset.
Nate Marquardt vs. Tyron Woodley
The first title fight of the night will feature former UFC contender Nate Marquardt and undefeated prospect Tyron Woodley competing for the vacant Strikeforce welterweight belt. Marquardt comes to Strikeforce after alternating wins and losses in his last five UFC appearances. He earned a decision victory over Dan Miller at UFC 128 in his last fight after losing to Yushin Okami in a title contender elimination fight. Woodley has been impressive in his undefeated Strikeforce run earning victories over Jordan Mein and Paul Daley in his last two fights bringing his record to ten wins and no losses.
Marquardt has long been one of the better fighters in the middleweight division but has been unable to climb to the top of division. Because of that, he has decided to not only drop to welterweight but has also made the jump from the UFC to Strikeforce where he can fight for a title immediately. Marquardt basically had no choice but to be a big fish in the small Strikeforce pond after the UFC released him. He has lost a bit of credibility in the past year with his testosterone replacement therapy saga but this fight is an opportunity to get his career back on the right track. He brings a well-rounded skill set to the cage with the ability to finish from any position. Against an excellent wrestler like Woodley, expect him to try to keep the fight standing. The key to this fight will be his defensive wrestling. If he can fend off Woodley’s takedowns, he should have the advantage in the striking game. But if he finds himself on his back, he’ll be in trouble. The other key will be how his body handles the weight cut. If this fight goes five rounds, his body will be tested. Any time a fighter makes a change in weight class the first fight is always a bit of a challenge and five rounds will only make the challenge even more difficult.
Woodley’s win streak to start his career is now at ten fights and he will look to make it eleven by earning the first title of his MMA career. He is not as well-rounded as his opponent and will rely almost entirely on his wrestling to earn the victory. He needs to be able to get Marquardt down and control him on the ground. At this point in his career, he doesn’t have the striking to compete on the feet. He has the power to land a haymaker but not the technique to consistently outstrike Marquardt. Because of that, he needs to focus on getting the fight to the ground and grinding his way to victory. The more he can force Marquardt to wrestle the better his chances of wearing him out and testing the weight cut become. His chances also improve as the fight goes longer for the same reasons. If Woodley wants to win, he has to make the fight slow and ugly. And luckily for him, that’s exactly his style.
Marquardt is the slight favorite in this fight at -130 with Woodley coming in at +110. That seems about right as Marquardt has a significant advantage in experience and Woodley has never faced anyone of his caliber before. If Marquardt’s defensive wrestling is good enough to keep the fight standing, he should be able to earn the victory. But if Woodley can be successful with his takedowns and maintain top position, he’ll grind his way to a decision.
Robbie Lawler vs. Lorenz Larkin
Strikeforce is showing a little love to the fans by giving us a guaranteed slugfest and more than likely a KO or TKO finish with a middleweight fight between Lorenz Larkin and Robbie Lawler. Both fighters prefer to stand and both have the power to finish. Larkin is the more technical fighter and uses a more well-rounded striking attack incorporating a variety of kicks into his game. Lawler prefers to box and mix in some powerful knees when the opportunity arises. However, Lawler may have the slight advantage in power and explosiveness.
The analysis for this fight is pretty straightforward. These guys are going to stand and bang and eventually one of them is probably going to fall. None of the major sites have a line on this fight but if they did, it would have to be close. Either fighter is capable of landing the strike that ends the fight at any moment. I could stretch this out longer to try to sound smarter but this fight is what is so enjoy it for as long as it lasts. I know I will.
Roger Gracie vs. Keith Jardine
To open a big night for Strikeforce that features two title fights, Roger Gracie will face Keith Jardine in the light heavyweight division. Gracie carries the banner for the first family of MMA into this fight against Jardine who carries the banner for ugly fighting styles. These two fighters are polar opposites in their approaches with Gracie coming from a storied Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu background and employing a traditional style that led him to great success on the grappling circuit while Jardine seems to come into every fight looking to make it an ugly brawl to create openings for his powerful punches.
Gracie’s striking has improved in recent fights but he is still a grappler first. He will be looking to get the fight to the mat as quickly as possible and avoid engaging Jardine on the feet. The question will be whether or not he has the wrestling to succeed in taking down Jardine. If he can, the fight will likely be over quickly after that. Jardine will be looking to ugly up the fight as much as possible and use his unorthodox striking to keep Gracie off balance. While Gracie has shown a willingness to strike, he still doesn’t seem to respond well to getting hit and if Jardine can land one of his looping punches, he could get an opportunity to finish his opponent. But he needs to be careful because if he stuns Gracie and follows him to the ground to try for a finish, he could find himself in a submission.
The bookmakers have Gracie as a solid favorite at -260 with Jardine at +180. I’m not sure why Gracie is such a big favorite given that the fight will start on the feet and Jardine has a significant advantage in that area. I’m also not convinced that Gracie will be able to drag Jardine to the mat before eating a few shots. Both fighters have a clear path to victory here and the winner will be determined by who executes his gameplan more efficiently. If Gracie gets the fight to the ground, he should be able to wrap it up quickly. But if Jardine can keep the fight standing, he has the power to finish Gracie.