It feels like a Chad Mendes vs. Frankie Edgar bout should have already happened, but it hasn’t. Never fear, the potentially epic scrap will take place Friday night at the finale of The Ultimate Fighter Season 22 in Las Vegas.
It’s all part of a trifecta of rapid-fire events on tap from the UFC. Mendes and Edgar spoke with Fox Sports’ Ariel Helwani on Wednesday to discuss their upcoming bout:
MMA fans have to be pumped for what has to be the most exciting three-day stretch in UFC history. From Thursday through Saturday, Las Vegas will play host to one UFC event per day—and the cards get progressively bigger.
On Thursday at UFC Fight Night 80, Paige “12 Gauge” VanZant takes on Rose “Thug” Namajunas in the main event from The Chelsea at the Cosmopolitan. It’s a crucial strawweight bout that could decide the next challenger for champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk’s title.
You can see the full card for this event at UFC.com.
On Saturday, perhaps the biggest card in UFC history is set to take place at the MGM Grand Garden Arena. At UFC 194, two world titles will be on the line, as UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo will finally clash with interim champion Conor McGregor. Also, UFC middleweight champion Chris Weidman will defend his title against Luke Rockhold.
Check out the full card for UFC 194 at the promotion’s official website.
The TUF Finale is sandwiched between the two cards and will also take place at The Cosmopolitan. In addition to the compelling main event, there are a few other interesting fights on tap.
Here’s a look at the card, viewing information and predictions:
Lauzon and Dunham Will Fight to a Draw
It’s difficult to remember ever predicting a fight will end in a draw, but there’s a first time for almost everything. In a bout that seems primed to become the Fight of the Night, Joe Lauzon and Evan Dunham don’t figure to hold a big enough advantage over the other in any aspect of mixed martial arts.
Lauzon is one of the premier submission fighters in the world. Eighteen of his 25 professional wins have come by submission, per Sherdog.com. That said, Dunham’s jiu-jitsu is excellent as well. He has six wins by submission.
While Lauzon likely has the edge in this area, it would be foolish to expect him to dominate a guy who is himself a jiu-jitsu instructor. When it comes to striking, Lauzon has shown a little more pop throughout his career, but recent fights suggest Dunham has made strides in stand-up combat.
Dunham has landed more strikes than each of his last two opponents. Against noted boxer Ross Pearson, Dunham used his grappling to earn the unanimous-decision victory, but he did land 26 strikes to just 16 for Pearson.
In the fight before that, Dunham battered Rodrigo Damm en route to another unanimous-decision win. Dunham outlanded Damm 152-47, per FightMetric. This one could end in a close decision for either fighter, but the official prediction here is a draw.
El Cucuy Will Submit Barboza
Counting current UFC lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos, there are seven 155-pound fighters ranked above Tony “El Cucuy” Ferguson—including his opponent on Friday, No. 6-ranked Edson Barboza.
When this potentially thrilling bout is over, there won’t be any doubt who should be in the Top Five and possibly in line for a shot at dos Anjos. Ferguson is the most well-rounded and skilled lightweight in the world, and he’s going to prove it Friday against the dangerous Barboza.
In his career, Ferguson has nine wins by KO/TKO and six by submission, per Sherdog.
When it comes to pure striking, Ferguson can’t hang with Barboza for three full rounds. The Brazilian is too quick and explosive. However, Ferguson can provide Barboza different looks.
Striking with him for a spell and then looking to take the fight to the ground, where he has the decided advantage, would be a good basic approach. Ferguson is tough to hit, as evidenced by his 70 percent striking defense, per FightMetric.
He’ll be looking to take an opportunity to counter a Barboza strike with a takedown, where he has the decided advantage. Ferguson is quick and long enough to create some unique angles for strikes and takedowns that others may not be able to pull off.
In what will be his most impressive win to date, Ferguson will submit Barboza in the second round.
Edgar Will Outwork Mendes
Frankie Edgar doesn’t really have any weaknesses. He’s always in great condition. His pace is phenomenal, his power is solid, and his speed is well above average. All of those qualities will serve him well Saturday.
Mendes has the power advantage, but when it comes to pure speed, Edgar isn’t far off Aldo. If there’s one aspect of the champion’s game that Mendes could never get a handle on after two fights, it’s the champion’s speed.
Against Edgar, that will also be Mendes’ undoing. Edgar has the ability to move continually, and that will be a problem for Mendes—especially in the fourth and fifth rounds. So long as Edgar can avoid Mendes’ big right hand and being on the bottom during grappling segments, he will win a close, but fair, decision.
Fight stats for TUF Season 22 Finale matchups per FightMetric.com.
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