UFC 127 Betting Odds

MMA Fix just moved on up to a bigger and fancier office, so we don’t have our new studio built out yet to shoot our UFC 127 Betting Odds videos. But as we get through organizing our new place, we decided we would still provide you with a blog post on your best bets for this weekend’s event. Our very special expert MMA analysts, Larry Pepe of ProMMARadio.com and Damon Martin of MMAWeekly.com have provided their UFC 127 best bet picks below:

DENNIS SIVER (+300) vs. GEORGE SOTIROPOULOS (-325):

Larry Pepe: Sotiropoulos has gone a stellar 7-0 in the UFC with his last three wins over Joe Lauzon, Kurt Pellegrino and Joe Stevenson. The Aussie is a BJJ wizard on the ground with some of the quickest and smoothest ground transitions in recent memory. Siver has won 5 of his last 6, along with 4 post-fight bonuses. The German kickboxer will have a marked advantage on the feet (remember Tommy Speer’s KO of Sotiropoulos on TUF and Pellegrino’s rocking of the Aussie in the third round of their fight at UFC 116?) while Sots will have a significant edge if the fight hits the floor. Siver has said that he isn’t afraid to roll with Sotiropoulos which makes me concerned that he may be easier to get to the ground than if he fully understands the danger in going there. Some books have this one at -500, others have it around -300. While I think Sotiropoulos wins the fight, there’s no way he should be a -500 favorite. If you can get him at -300 or less it’s worth a play but I’ve seen Siver as high as +315. At that number, there’s too much value to ignore.

Damon Martin: Sotiropoulos is a huge favorite in this fight, but it’s with good reason.  He’s been steamrolling through very solid competition, and most believe this fight is actually kind of a step down in the division for him.  Denis Siver is a very serviceable lightweight fighter, but he’s not on the same level with Sotiropoulos at this point.
Even with the odds so far in extreme, I’d say the money goes to Sotiropoulos on this one.  He’s simply the better fighter and being at home in Australia is only going to serve to improve his performance.  Unless Siver can catch him with one big shot, I don’t see another way he wins this.

Larry’s Bet: Sotiropoulos at -325 or less

Damon’s Bet: Even with the odds so far in extreme, I’d say the money goes to Sotiropoulos on this one. He’s simply the better fighter and being at home in Australia is only going to serve to improve his performance. Unless Siver can catch him with one big shot, I don’t see another way he wins this.

JORGE RIVERA (+275) vs. MICHAEL BISPING (-325):

Larry Pepe: Bisping has gone 6-2 since moving down to Middleweight with his only losses coming to Wanderlei Silva and Dan Henderson. Rivera has had a nice run lately, winning three straight against Osterneck, Kimmons and Quarry. (Only Kimmons still has a job in the UFC.) While he is a solid striker and may hold a power advantage over the Brit, Rivera is taking a big step up in competition here and hasn’t fought in 11 months. That’s not a winning scenario. Bisping has beaten better strikers than Rivera in Leben and, most recently, Akiyama and should be able to do the same here. He’s a younger, more active, more well-rounded fighter with a deeper gas tank and an added level of motivation to make Rivera pay for his barrage of online videos.

Damon Martin: If you asked me about this fight 3 months ago, I’d say Michael Bisping all day. I think he’s the faster fighter, the more diverse fighter, and usually sticks to his game plan perfectly to get him the win. Now however, Rivera is in Bisping’s head, plain and simple. The videos that Rivera put together have Bisping seething with anger and he would have been much better served to just laugh those off and stick to a cool calm demeanor.
Instead, Bisping looks legitimately rattled by what Rivera has done to hype this fight up and I think it could cost him in the end. If he starts stepping forward too much and getting aggressive out of anger, Rivera can and will knock him out. Don’t doubt Rivera’s power on the feet, and he does have tremendous stand-up. He’s been working boxing with Peter Welch for years, and also does jiu-jitsu with the Florian brothers.

Larry’s Bet: Bisping

Damon’s Bet: This would be a great underdog bet for UFC 127. Put your money on Jorge Rivera for the upset.

BJ PENN (+170) vs. JON FITCH (-200):

Larry Pepe: My heart says BJ but my head can’t ignore the facts. Since his return at UFC 58 in 2006, Penn has gone 1-3 in the welterweight division. He is a phenomenal fighter at 155 pounds and the more skilled mixed martial artist in this fight, but size matters in MMA circa 2011. Fitch is 13-1 in the UFC with a grinding, highly criticized style that rarely sees him finish a fight. The last time he scored a stoppage was 2007 against Roan Carneiro and he’s been involved in eight straight decisions since. I expect him to be involved in another decision on Saturday night that will see him wear Penn down and expose a cardio deficiency we’ve seen with The Prodigy at 170. If BJ wins it happens early, but don’t bet on it.

Damon Martin: This fight to me is simply one I look at where Jon Fitch fights the anti-B.J. Penn style. He powers people around in the clinch, looks for takedowns, and has a tremendous wrestling base. I see this fight going similar to the 2nd fight between Penn and Georges St-Pierre.
Fitch needs to pressure Penn against the cage and not let him stand on the outside and throw his jab. Fitch has never let any other opponent do that to him, so I don’t know why Penn would be the first. If Penn can stuff the takedowns and stay off the cage, he has a shot, but I just don’t see him being able to do that.

Larry’s Bet: Fitch

Damon’s Bet: I think Fitch takes him down and grinds him into the mat for a unanimous decision win.