Tonight’s UFC 129 – St. Pierre VS Shields takes place at the Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. This will be the biggest MMA card in North American history, and the UFC is doing what they can to make every last one of the 50,000+ in attendance goes home happy. Tonight’s card will feature two championship fights when Canada’s native son Georges St. Pierre puts his belt on the like against one of his toughest opponents to date in Jake Shields and Brazilian phenom Jose Aldo defends his UFC Featherweight belt against Canada’s own brilliant striker Mark Hominick.
This is going to be an action packed, star studded card from top to bottom. In addition to a ton of name value and what looks to be several barn burners happening in the great white north, there are many solid betting opportunities. Specifically, many of the UFC 129 preliminary fights offer sports bettors some very reasonable chances at making some money tonight. Before placing your bets, make sure to have a look at MMAMoneyLine’s UFC 129 Pros’ Picks. Here are my Best Bets for tonight’s card…and there are more than a few!
Also, allow me to personally thank Olieng once again for the awesome self-made UFC 129 poster. Whenever he (or she…or they…I don’t know what kind of operation they run over there) puts up a custom MMA poster on the site, MMAMoneyLine will absolutely give it the credit and exposure it deserves!
George St. Pierre/Jose Aldo/Lyoto Machida – MMAMoneyLine (Parlay on BetUS)
I will be starting my Best Bets off with a pretty low risk parlay. I am as unbiased of an MMA fan as there is and give both Jake Shields and Mark Hominick the respect they deserve, but Georges St. Pierre is, in my opinion, the best mixed martial artist on Earth right now and Jose Aldo might be just that in a couple of years.
Nothing about St. Pierre’s past performances tell me he will lose to Jake Shields. Nothing about Georges St. Pierre’s skill set versus that of Jake Shields tells me that Georges St. Pierre will lose to Jake Shields. Many people rave about Shields’ BJJ game (and rightfully so), but St. Pierre has fought BJ Penn twice. St. Pierre has evolved his game to a point where he can win with wrestling or striking. I don’t think Shields will find much success taking St. Pierre down, getting him to the ground in a clinch, or even pulling guard or catching a trip. Over five rounds, there is a pretty good chance that Shields will get GSP to the ground once or twice, but it is no cakewalk from there. St. Pierre has fought the best wrestlers in the division and dominated them. He has fought some of the best strikers in the division and dominated them. Although St. Pierre is a little short on victories over top level BJJ players, Shields still poses very little threat to the champ.
Shields is not known for having a good striking repertoire, is fighting one of the best wrestlers in MMA, is coming off a horrible debut in the UFC, and will be fighting in front of one of the most hostile audiences in MMA history. Shields needs to pull of the perfect fight to win, and if he does then it will go down as an absolutely remarkable upset.
Moving on to the Aldo/Hominick scrap. This one is pretty cut and dry: Hominick is touted as the more technical striker, but he is fighting probably the most devastating 155 lb. and below striker in MMA. Although Hominick is far from the lame duck on the ground that he was early in his career, Aldo is a BJJ black belt. When it comes down to it, Hominick is a lesser version of Jose Aldo. I haven’t seen any chinks in Aldo’s armor yet, and I believe he’s faced tougher competition than Hominick and was dominant.
In the former UFC Light Heavyweight champion versus former UFC Light Heavyweight champion contest, the Machida/Couture fight is probably the least certain pick in this parlay, and that is saying something. I hate picking against Randy Couture. Randy Couture has made a career off of making people like me look like I don’t know an arm bar from an open bar. The man has one of the greatest resumes in MMA and has made his name late in his career by beating men he had no business beating.
I also hate picking Lyoto Machida. The Machida hype-train was in full effect not too long ago after he blew through Sokoudjou, Tito Ortiz, Thiago Silva, and Rashad Evans. However, he has looked ineffective in his last three fights going 1-2 (0-3 to many) against Shogun Rua and Rampage Jackson. Much like MLB pitcher Hideo Nomo a few years into his career, it seems as though Machida has been figured out after an astronomical entrance into the UFC.
Regardless of my personal experience and beliefs pertaining to Couture and Machida, this fight comes down to logic. Couture is at the end of his career and is 3-2 in his last 5 fights (a win coming against a boxer, Mark Coleman, and Brandon Vera…a fight he should have lost). Although Machida is no Brock Lesnar, he does have the tools to beat Couture. Machida’s movement makes him hard to take down (refer to the Tito Ortiz fight). Machida will also have a distinct advantage on the feet. If Machida can keep off his back, which is likely due to his excellent movement and footwork, and stay out of the clinch with Couture, which is also likely because he is a smart fighter, it leaves Couture with a very slim margin in which to implement his game plan.
In Randy’s farewell fight, I wouldn’t even be mad if he blew up my parlay here. I give Couture more of a chance than most, but I still cannot pick him against a bad stylistic match up like this. A St. Pierre, Aldo, and Machida parlay should pad your bankroll and cover you on some of your more risky bets.
Rory MacDonald – MMAMoneyLine (-115 on Bodog)
Although they get a good amount of criticism from the MMA blogosphere, I think Sherdog’s Jason Probst has a very accurate writeup of the Rory MacDonald/Nate Diaz fight. Since I agree on most of his points, I have no problem posting a credit link to another website. We all know the story with the Diaz boys: annoyingly effective striking, world class grappling, iron chins, breathtaking cardio, and unshakable confidence. However, Nate Diaz is not Nick Diaz. We’ve seen him get soundly beaten before, particularly by strong wrestlers like Dong Hyun Kim, Gray Maynard, Joe Stevenson, and Clay Guida. Conversely, we’ve also seen Diaz stifle accomplished strikers like Rory Markham, Marcus Davis, and Melvin Guillard.
So what’s with this MacDonald pick? Well, apparently I am not the only one with this mindset seeing as the lines shifted all the way to the Canadian being the favorite tonight. MacDonald is dangerous to Diaz because of the way he is able to synthesize all of the aspects of MMA into one impressive package. I’m not going to say Rory has the striking of Melvin Guillard, the wrestling of Gray Maynard, and the jits of Hermes Franca, but he is dangerous everywhere. Diaz has mostly beaten guys who have had holes in their game that the opportunistic Californian exploited.
MacDonald is the new breed of mixed martial artist in that he has extensive experience in all disciplines. He also has the advantage (in this fight) of being aggressive, fearless, and perhaps even a bit reckless. MacDonald will respect Diaz’s game, but he won’t be afraid of it. I don’t think Diaz will outclass MacDonald standing, and MacDonald will get Diaz to the ground several times. It is going to be a close fight, but Diaz doesn’t always do well against the aggressor. I fully expect Rory MacDonald to push the pace in this fight in front of his fellow countrymen and keep the pressure on Diaz for as long as the fight lasts. If there is a finish in this fight, it will be a Diaz sub off his back. Besides that, I like MacDonald taking either a decision or a TKO victory from ground and pound. The Carlos Condit fight proved to me, even in a loss, that this kid belongs.
Daniel Roberts – MMAMoneyLine (+110 on BetDSI)
I honestly have no idea why Daniel Roberts is the underdog here. When I start with that line, it is obvious who my BetDSI Ultimate Underdog bet is for tonight’s UFC 129 card (although he is only a slight underdog). I suppose if you go the “both guys are good grapplers, so it will cancel out and come down to the better striker” route, Claude Patrick gets a small nod in the stand up department. However, this fight will get to the ground where it will be emphatically decided. Patrick is not a good enough striker to keep Roberts at bay, and if Patrick does go for the takedown he is outclassed on the mat (if he even gets it there with Roberts’ solid take down defense). The smart fight is for Patrick to try to win this with his striking, which is asking too much of him. I have little doubt that Roberts will be able to deal with some strikes en route to a take down. Once Roberts is on top of Patrick, Ninja will use his exemplary grappling to end this one after an entertaining battle on the mat.
Yves Jabouin – MMAMoneyLine (+210 on BetDSI)
I was an instant Yves Jabouin fan after his fight against Mark Hominick at WEC 49. Jabouin, even in a loss, dazzled everyone in attendance as well as everyone watching at home with his dynamic striking. If he was in a kickboxing contest against Pablo Garza, it would be an easy pick. However, this is MMA and as the odds indicate, is also a pretty competitive contest.
Although Garza is fresh off a highlight reel flying knee KO against Fredson Paixao, he is still a wrestler first. I don’t want to use the “this fight is a classing grappler versus striker contest” line, but that pretty much sums it up. If this fight takes place standing, Jabouin will be able to do whatever he wants to Garza. If Garza plants the Canadian on his back, Yves will have an uphill battle for as long as he is looking up at the lights.
Looking a little bit deeper into this fight, a few things stand out to me. First off, Jabouin hasn’t lost to many grapplers even though he is looked at as one dimensional. He lost against Jonathan Brookins, a very talented fighter who made Jabouin submit with elbows. He also lost a close decision to Raphael Assuncao, a fight in which Assuncao resorted to a late trip and rally in the end of the fight to pull out the split decision. Secondly, Jabouin’s takedown defense was stellar in the Assuncao fight. When he was taken down, it was by a very well timed trip from a very wily mixed martial artist. I don’t think Garza has the grappling of Jonathan Brookins or the grappling creativity of Raphael Assuncao…and I am well aware that some people aren’t going to agree with that. Lastly, Jabouin has a few advantages (although they may seem fairly trivial) in that he is fighting in front of a home crowd and he has faced better competition.
I think Jabouin will stuff a few of Garza’s takedowns and punish Garza on the feet. My prediction is that Jabouin will get to Garza before Garza gets to him, and he will do it in spectacular fashion with an ironically well placed knee KO.
**Note: I will also be making bets on Vladimir Matyushenko and Charlie Valencia. Although I like bets on both fighters at their current odds, I think the four aforementioned bets are higher quality wagers. In addition, the Valencia pick is too risky for me to recommend (I will risk my own money before telling others to risk theirs). Also, I had a wager on Jake Ellenberger when his line was much more lucrative. However, I cannot recommend him with as much confidence in value at his current line.
MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:
St. Pierre/UD
Aldo/TKO/2
Matyushenko/SD
Machida/UD
Bocek/SD
MacDonald/TKO/3
Ellenberger/TKO/1
Roberts/SUB/1
Valencia/UD
Jensen/UD
Makdessi/KO/1
Jabouin/KO/1
MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):
St. Pierre/Aldo/Machida – 2 u. on BetUS
Ellenberger – 1 u. at -175 on BetUS
MacDonald – 1 u. at -110 on BetDSI
Matyushenko -1 u. at EVEN on BetUS
Roberts – 4 u. at +110 on BetDSI
Jabouin -2 u. at -140 on Bodog
Valencia – 1 u. at +165 on BetDSI