Filed under: UFC
The main eventers have worked out their issues with Dr. Phil and the guys lower down the card have had a chance to discuss what their fights ultimately mean, so I suppose it’s time to turn to the betting experts to find out how they see the action going down at UFC 135.
Jon Jones (-600) vs. Quinton “Rampage” Jackson (+400)
Based on all the pre-fight hype, you wouldn’t know this main event is, at least according to oddsmakers, a bit of a squash match. And yet, these are the people who get paid to handicap fights, and this is actually one of the more reasonable lines out there. Some have Jones as high as 7-1. Can so many professional gamblers be wrong?
Well, sure they could. Especially with a fighter who’s as young and untested as Jones. He’s dominated every opponent so thoroughly that it’s hard to imagine a plodding, predictable striker like Jackson surprising him with anything new. If I had to guess, I’d say Jones is thinking the same thing right now. If he goes into this fight thinking that Jackson has nothing for him, he could end up learning a painful lesson about respecting his elders. Punching power is the last desperate hope of many an aging fighter, and it’s been Jackson’s saving grace a time or two in the past. His best chance is to catch Jones slipping and rock him with one hard shot. Then again, no one’s been able to do it yet.
My pick: Jones. The betting line is clearly insane, but money ventured on Jackson is money you need to be prepared to never see again. He needs to get in close and hook in order to have a chance. I fear the closest he’ll get to Jones is during the pre-fight staredown.
Matt Hughes (+300) vs. Josh Koscheck (-450)
I love an underdog pick as much as anyone (see also: my regrettable decision to pick Jason MacDonald last week), but I don’t see how Hughes has much of a chance here. What, does he outwrestle the bigger, stronger Koscheck? Nope. Does he floor him with his polished striking? Probably not. Does he submit him off his back? C’mon son. Hughes holds no obvious advantages over a guy like Koscheck, with the possible exception that he’s been in pre-fight training mode a little longer. But even though Koscheck took this fight on short notice, both men have had comparable layoffs, and both had to deal with a new opponent three weeks out. Maybe Hughes can come right out and put some leather on Koscheck’s surgically-repaired eye, but Country Breakfast wasn’t known for his stellar hand speed even in his prime, and he’s a long way from that now.
My pick: Koscheck. Again, atrocious odds, but fitting ones. We’d probably have more fun betting on whether this will be Hughes’ retirement fight. I got a sawbuck that says it is.
Travis Browne (-350) vs. Rob Broughton (+265)
Browne is now in his fourth UFC fight, and so far the most vulnerable we’ve seen him look was when Cheick Kongo pressed him up against the fence and clung to his shorts en route to a yawn-worthy draw. Maybe that was the smart way to play it, since as Stefan Struve found out back in May, this big man can swat. That could be why oddsmakers aren’t so hot on Broughton’s chances. He’ll be giving up about four inches in height to the 6’7″ Browne, and the Brit has yet to beat any really impressive heavyweights (no offense to James Thompson and Butterbean, both of whom have losses against Broughton). His best chance might be to get Browne to the mat, where his size and reach won’t be such a problem. That’s easier said than done against this behemoth.
My pick: Browne. With all these huge favorites in my parlay, I’m going to have to find a crazier-than-usual underdog pick soon…
Nate Diaz (-250) vs. Takanori Gomi (+190)
After being overpowered at welterweight, Diaz is back in the division where he’s had the most success and is taking on one of his brother’s former foes. It seems like a match-up that’s made for Diaz. Here he has a submittable opponent who probably won’t try to out-wrestle him. All he has to do is not get knocked out. That shouldn’t be so hard, since both Diaz boys seem to have been born with iron chins. It’s a good thing, too, what with their willingness to stand there and let people test their fists on them.
My pick: Diaz. I know, another favorite. Sorry, but I just don’t see Gomi winning too many fights these days that he can’t end with a single punch.
Ben Rothwell (-300) vs. Mark Hunt (+240)
If you’re looking for a big underdog who’s worth a risk, it’s now or never. Hunt has almost zero ground game. We know this — and when I say ‘we,’ I’m including Rothwell. The smart thing to do would be for Rothwell to get it to the mat as early as possible and hope that Hunt still hasn’t learned even the basics when it comes to submission defense. And honestly, I think that’s probably what will happen. But there’s always that chance, however remote, that Hunt lands one good punch and changes everything. Every round does start on the feet, after all. And — who knows — maybe after 15 months away from the scene Rothwell thinks he has to prove something by coming in there and knocking Hunt out. It would be a bad idea, but that doesn’t mean it’s out of the question.
My pick: Hunt. Man, I do not feel good about that. If Rothwell plays it smart, I think he submits him in the first round. But all that time off, plus Hunt’s heavy hands, multiplied by my need to find a crazy underdog, equals small action on Hunt.
Quick Picks:
– Nick Ring (+120) over Tim Boetsch (-150). Call me crazy, but I don’t think Boetsch will be able to run his usual wrestling schtick here. And when that doesn’t work, he’s all out of ideas.
– James Te Huna (-155) over Ricardo Romero (+125). Te Huna’s just a little bigger and more aggressive, plus he needs this more.
The ‘For Entertainment Purposes Only’ Parlay: Jones + Koscheck + Browne + Diaz. It’s not sexy, but at least it’s secure.