Taking a page out of the professional wrestling handbook, UFC is going with an all-heavyweight gimmick pay-per-view for UFC 146 to celebrate the Memorial Day holiday.
While they are not the most nimble or technically sound fighters in the sport, heavyweights are always exciting to watch because you are almost guaranteed to see a knockout.
With five main card fights featuring 10 heavyweights, including Junior dos Santos defending the heavyweight championship for the first time against Frank Mir, the action will be fast and furious.
Here are bold predictions for all five main card fights at UFC 146.
Stefan Struve (23-5, 6 KOs, 15 Subs) vs. Lavar Johnson (17-5, 15 KOs, 2 Subs)
Johnson is taking this fight on just 10 days’ notice, after Struve’s original opponent Mark Hunt had to withdraw due to a knee injury. Having just fought Pat Barry at UFC on FOX earlier this month, Johnson should still be in top shape for this fight.
However, the stress of having two fights in such close proximity to each other is going to be incredibly taxing.
Struve is a rising star in the heavyweight division and is starting to come into his own with two straight wins, one via knockout and the other via submission. He is going to find the winner’s circle for the third consecutive fight thanks to a strong ground fighting style and Johnson overtaxing his body.
Prediction: Struve wins via second-round TKO
Stipe Miocic (8-0, 6 KOs, 1 Sub) vs. Shane del Rosario (11-0, 8 KOs, 3 Subs)
Neither fighter has a lot of UFC experience. In fact, del Rosario is making his UFC debut after fighting in Strikeforce the previous two years.
Miocic is very much a one-dimensional fighter—he wants to stand and trade with anything that moves. It has been an effective style for him so far, but he will have to show more against del Rosario.
While del Rosario is not the most dynamic fighter in the world, he does have enough of a ground game to cause problems for Miocic if he can get him down. Even if he doesn’t, del Rosario has enough power to end this fight with one punch.
Prediction: del Rosario wins via third-round Submission
Roy Nelson (16-7, 9 KOs, 5 Subs) vs. Dave Herman (21-3, 15 KOs, 5 Subs)
I am going to go out on a not-very-long limb and say that this is going to be the best and most exciting fight of the night.
Nelson, while not the best fighter in the world, is going to give you every drop of sweat and blood he has each time he steps in the cage. He has one of the best chins in the sport, which will serve him well against a knockout artist like Herman.
Herman is in that tweener area. He has a nice record with a lot of knockouts, but he doesn’t have a signature win. He is not a crisp striker. He relies more on his power to get knockouts than actually using good technique to attack an opponent.
Nelson gets the slight edge in this contest, just because I don’t see how Herman is going to knock him out.
Prediction: Nelson wins via second-round TKO
Cain Velasquez (9-1, 8 KOs) vs. Antonio Silva (16-3, 11 KOs, 3 Subs)
Silva got put in a prime spot for his UFC debut after Frank Mir was moved up to the main event. He will be looking to get back on track following a quick loss to newly-minted Strikeforce heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier in the semifinals of the Heavyweight Grand Prix.
Velasquez is coming off the first defeat of his career. He was embarrassed by Junior dos Santos at the first UFC on FOX special, losing the heavyweight title in the process.
This is a combat sport and anyone can be beaten on any given night, but it is hard to envision a scenario where Velasquez loses. He is a better all-around fighter than Silva and has the incentive of a potential title shot to push him over the edge.
Prediction: Velasquez wins via first-round TKO
Heavyweight Championship: Junior dos Santos (c) (14-1, 10 KOs, 2 Subs) vs. Frank Mir (16-5, 3 KOs, 9 Subs)
Like the Velasquez-Silva fight, dos Santos vs. Mir should not be close. Mir is talking a great game, but as far as skills go, he is no longer in the elite class of heavyweight fighters. He was getting destroyed by Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira before catching Big Nog in a kimura.
On the other hand, dos Santos just keeps getting stronger with each fight. He is the best pure striker in the division and one of the best in the sport. His boxing has carried him to this point, but his wrestling and defense have made him what he is.
Mir should be thanking his lucky stars that he is in this spot, because it will be the last time he is fighting for the heavyweight championship.
Prediction: dos Santos wins via second-round TKO
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