Cung Le vs. Patrick Cote
In a matchup clearly designed for entertainment, fan favorite Cung Le will face veteran Patrick Cote. Strikeforce tried to make Cung Le a superstar. They tried to sell his san shou background and his wrestling background and his acting credentials. But the reality is that he’s a forty year old fighter with a 7-2 career record and no significant wins. He lost in his last fight against Wanderlei Silva, which proves he is not an elite fighter at middleweight. The UFC knew this when they brought him over from Strikeforce and they are using him to generate exciting fights against fighters who will be willing to stand with him. Enter Patrick Cote. Cote gets a chance to defeat a name fighter in his return to the octagon after being let go following three consecutive losses to Anderson Silva, Alan Belcher and Tom Lawlor. In hindsight, that release may have been premature given the emergence of Belcher.
This fight is not complicated to analyze. It will take place mostly on the feet. Le will employ all of the kicks and spinning techniques fans expect from him. He will use his wrestling defensively to keep the fight standing if Cote decides to strike. Le has the technical ability to keep Cote at a distance and outstrike him. He even has the power to finish the fight if he can land a clean combination. But Cote has never been finished via KO or TKO and I don’t expect Cung Le to do what Anderson Silva couldn’t. Cote will more than likely also want to keep the fight standing. He is a more traditional striker but that doesn’t make him any less of a threat. The power in his right hand is more dangerous than any single strike Cung Le possesses. He comes into this fight on a four fight winning streak outside of the UFC and he will be looking to use Cung Le as a step toward once again competing at the top of the middleweight division.
The oddsmakers currently have Cote favored at -245 with Le the underdog at +205. I’m not surprised to see Cote favored but I am slightly surprised at the margin. That said, Cote is the more experienced and probably more dangerous fighter. His striking is good enough to neutralize Le’s unorthodox style and earn the victory either via (T)KO or decision. If Le wants to earn the upset, he will need to utilize movement and keep Cote guessing and moving backward. Either way, this should be an entertaining fight between two dangerous strikers.
Dong Hyun Kim vs. Demian Maia
In a matchup of upper level middleweights, Dong Hyun Kim will face Demian Maia as both men look to move up the ranks at 185 pounds. Kim has won six of his seven fights in the UFC excluding his fight with Karo Parisyan that was ruled a no contest after Parisyan tested positive for PEDs. Maia has struggled recently losing two of his last three fights in the UFC.
Maia has been a fixture in the UFC middleweight division for years having risen as far as a title fight with Anderson Silva. He was outclassed badly in that fight and has been up and down since then with wins over Mario Miranda, Kendall Grove and Jorge Santiago and losses to Mark Munoz and Chris Weidman. He seems to struggle when he faces the higher level of competition with his most impressive wins coming against Chael Sonnen and Dan Miller. He still possesses some of the most dangerous jiu-jitsu in the world at any weight class but his opponents have been able to neutralize that by refusing to play the ground game with him. His standup has improved over the last few years but is not at a level where he can win a striking match against a top level fighter. He will likely struggle to get Kim to the ground in this match and will need to take advantage of any opportunity he gets to grapple. More than likely, most of this fight will take place on the feet and that does not bode well for Maia. His grappling is by far the most dangerous weapon either fighter brings to the cage but unless Kim allows him to utilize it, Maia will likely be stuck in another striking match.
Dong Hyun Kim has only one official loss on his professional record and that came against Carlos Condit who is one of the best middleweights in the world. That said, Kim has yet to earn a signature victory with his biggest win coming against Amir Sadollah. Maia represents an excellent opportunity to earn a victory over a well respected middleweight and take a step up in the division. Kim was a knockout artist in Korea but that has not translated over to his UFC career as he has won all of his fights by decision. His striking is solid but not excellent and he has the defensive wrestling to keep the fight standing. He obviously has the power to finish with his strikes but has not been able to show it thus far in the the UFC. A finish against Maia would be a major statement but a decision is much more likely. He will need to keep the fight standing because even though he is competent on the ground, no one is safe against Damien Maia and he would be foolish to play that game. If he follows the appropriate gameplan and keeps the fight standing, he is capable of outstriking Maia to earn the victory.
Kim comes into the fight as the favorite at -145 with Maia the underdog at +125. The line is appropriate and this fight seems to have a clear script. Maia is always a threat if the fight goes to ground but I see no reason why Kim would allow that to happen. If the fight stays on the feet, Kim will have the advantage and he should be able to land more cleanly on his way to a decision victory.
