Renan Pagado vs. Urijah Faber
In the main event of UFC 149, Renan Pagado used the Jose Aldo Light playbook against Faber on his way to a convincing decision victory. Pagado used the same strategy of eliminating Faber’s movement with low kicks and then capitalizing with punching combinations. Faber was never in danger of being finished but was also never close to gaining any type of advantage.
Neither fighter did much in the first round. Pagado landed a low kick and couple of glancing punching combinations. Faber did his best to move and counter but never landed anything significant. The first round was the closest but I gave it to Pagado. The second round saw Pagado begin to establish control as he landed a clean punching combination off of a flying knee. He also continued to land the occasional low kick. The third round was when Pagado really began to damage Faber with the low kicks. He landed a huge one toward the end of the round and in between the third and fourth rounds, Faber had ice on his lead leg. The fourth and fifth rounds were more of the same. Pagado didn’t outclass Faber the way Aldo did but he established that he is clearly the better fighter and deserves a shot at Dominick Cruz once the champion is healthy.
The script for Urijah Faber title fights is becoming a bit repetitive at this point. Fighters with better movement and more technical striking use those advantages to keep him off balance and eventually outpoint him on the way to a decision victory. Faber’s wrestling is no longer good enough to get top level opponents to the ground and his days as a champion are probably over. But he will still continue to provide entertaining fights and will likely be remembered as the first fighter under 155 lbs to become a star. Pagado’s career is going the opposite direction. He will face Dominick Cruz for the bantamweight title in his next fight and he is capable of winning. That fight has the potential to be the best in the history of the 135 lb division and I’m already excited to see it. Renan Pagado is not the 135 lb Jose Aldo but he might soon be the 135 lb champion.
Hector Lombard vs. Tim Boetsch
In the biggest upset of the night, Tim Boetsch defeated the much heralded Hector Lombard in a perplexing fight. Lombard seemed to feel the pressure of making his first UFC appearance and never really let his hands go. He threw single shot counters whenever Boetsch came into range, which was almost never, and didn’t seem to ever get comfortable in the octagon. Boetsch fought from the outside landing kicks and occasionally coming close enough to land a punch but spent much of the fight on the outside avoiding engaging with Lombard. He used exactly that strategy to win the first round. Lombard won the second by landing the most significant strike of the fight, which was a glancing body kick that hurt Boetsch enough to allow Lombard to gain top position. But Lombard was uncharacteristically hesitant seeming to look for the perfect opportunity to strike instead of just using his incredible power to bomb punches through Boetsch’s guard. The third round was the most confusing of the fight as both fighters knew they needed the round and neither seemed willing to take a chance to win it. Neither showed any urgency and they basically traded low kicks until Lombard scored a takedown late in the round. Based on that, I gave Lombard the round and had him winning by decision. But the Canadian judges disagreed and gave Boetsch a split decision victory. Regardless of the outcome, neither fighter has any cause to blame the judges because the fight was available to be won and neither wanted to take a chance.
For Boetsch, this puts him close to the top of the division. Personally, I would rather see Chris Weidman get the next title shot as he seems to really want it while Boetsch appears to be trying to tiptoe his way into it. I guess a fight between Weidman and Boetsch to determine a number one contender would be acceptable but I have a hard time rewarding Boetsch for that performance. For Lombard, this is a huge loss. He was supposed to come in and immediately be the biggest threat to Anderson Silva but he looked far from that. Only time will tell whether this was the first step in Lombard being exposed as a small show hype machine or whether he was just nervous in his first fight on the big show. The most concerning thing to me was that he looked small. He carries a lot of muscle and if he was willing to drop some of that, he could easily cut to 170 lbs. Part of success in the UFC is finding the optimal weight class and if Lombard struggles at 185, he will have to seriously consider making the cut.
Cheick Kongo vs. Shawn Jordan
Cheick Kongo bounced back from his TKO loss to Mark Hunt with a plodding decision victory over Shawn Jordan. Most of the fight took place against the cage as the fighters battled for position and worked for takedowns that they would never get. Jordan pressed the action in the first round keeping Kongo’s back to the cage and working for takedowns. Even though he was completely unsuccessful, he controlled the fight and I gave the round to him. After working so hard in the first round, Jordan seemed to tire and Kongo began to get the advantage pushing Jordan against the cage. Kongo also managed to separate and land a couple of damaging knees and combinations. He never hurt Jordan but he did enough to win the round. The third round was fought between two exhausted fighters and consisted mainly of Kongo pushing Jordan up against the fence. Neither fighter did any real damage but Kongo had Jordan’s back to the cage for most of the round giving him the edge in scoring, which was enough to win the fight. Neither fighter was impressive and both showed a surprising lack of conditioning.
Kongo appears to be solidified as a mid-level heavyweight who has already reached the peak of his UFC success. If he faces a major step up in competition in his next fight, he will likely lose. Jordan is actually the more promising of the two fighters. Hopefully he will learn from this experience and use it to motivate him in taking his conditioning to another level. Some young fighters need to feel the frustration that comes from losing a winnable fight because of an empty gas tank to understand how hard they need to work in the gym. Jordan now knows that what he has been doing thus far isn’t enough and I expect him to show significant improvement in his next fight.
Ebersole vs. Head
In the first of two big upsets on the night, James Head defeated Brian Ebersole via split decision. Ebersole’s willingness to take fights on short notice finally caught up to him in this fight. He was clearly the smaller fighter as he is in the midst of cutting to lightweight and the fight looked exactly the way one would expect a fight between a lightweight and a welterweight to look. Head was much stronger and landed the more damaging strikes. Ebersole was totally unsuccessful in gaining any sort of grappling control over his opponent and was reduced to weak attempts to pull guard to try to get the fight to the ground. Despite all of that, the fight was actually even going into the final round. Ebersole’s unorthodox movement and striking was enough to earn him the second round after Head had won the first round. The third round was a disappointingly lackluster display from both fighters considering that the outcome of the fight was at stake. By the middle of the third round, Ebersole seemed bored and resigned to the fact that even though Head was not a threat to him in any way, the size difference was too much to overcome. Head seemed to realize the same thing but refused to try to take advantage of it settling instead to stuff Ebersole’s takedowns and throw an occasional combination. Ebersole finally got a takedown at the end of the round and moved to mount, which was the most significant point in the round and because of that, I gave the round and the fight to Ebersole. But Head won a split decision on the judges’ scorecards and Ebersole has no room to argue after his weak effort in the third round. Let’s hope this was a result of Ebersole being in the middle of a weight cutting process and nothing more. For Head, this was a chance to earn an impressive victory over an unprepared opponent and he was unable to do anything that makes him look like he’ll be a factor in the UFC.
Matt Riddle vs. Chris Clements
Matt Riddle took a step forward in his UFC career by controlling his fight with Chris Clements and eventually finishing via an impressive arm triangle in the third round. Riddle controlled most of the first round landing several takedowns and keeping Clements off balance. Clements seemed to be the better striker but was never able to get comfortable and Riddle landed the biggest strike of the fight when he hurt Clements with a liver kick. The second round saw more of the same with Riddle eventually taking Clements back after controlling much of the round on the ground. The third round started with Riddle making an ill fated attempt to entertain the crowd by engaging in exchanges with Clements and coming out on the losing end. He eventually smartly took the fight to the ground again to regain control. Clements managed to get back to his feet and attempt a spinning back fist but Riddle countered by locking up an arm triangle in the standing position. From there, he used an outside trip to take Clements down into side control and ended the fight with an impressive submission victory. Riddle showed improvement in this fight and if he continues to focus more on the type of execution that locked up that submission and less on entertaining the fans, he could make some headway in the welterweight division. Clements showed decent striking but will need to work hard on his wrestling if he wants to last in the UFC.