The time for talking and pre-fight hype has finally passed. Jon Jones and Daniel Cormier will finally fight for the UFC light heavyweight title on pay-per-view at the MGM Grand Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday.
The question is, what on earth is going to happen?
It’s a question that makes this fight so appealing because one of two things will happen. We’ll either see a longtime champion and pound-for-pound kingpin’s mortality put on display, or we’ll see that champion take another step toward being the unequivocal greatest fighter of all time.
There’s no in-between.
Here’s a look at all the information you’ll need to catch the bout and a few final predictions for the highly anticipated main event:
When: Saturday, Jan. 3
Start Time: Fight Pass Prelims at 7 p.m. ET (subscription required); Fox Sports 1 Prelims at 8 p.m. ET; Main Card pay-per-view at 10 p.m. ET
Where: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas
Live Stream: UFC.tv
Cormier Will Win Round 1
Daniel Cormier has never lost a round in his MMA career. That won’t change in the opening frame in his fight with Jones.
For all the immense talents that Jones has in his arsenal, he’s never been the type of fighter to overwhelm his opponent in the first round. He’s been outpaced in the opening round by Alexander Gustafsson and even Glover Teixiera in his last two bouts, according to FightMetric.
Just because he was outpaced (as measured by significant strikes attempted) doesn’t mean he lost those rounds. Effective aggression is more important than pure volume, but Cormier has shown in the past that he not only sets a high pace in the first round, but he can cause some damage while he’s at it.
Jones is more apt to break down his opponents over the course of a fight, not come out guns a-blazing to make a statement. That approach will likely cost him the opening round.
Cormier Will Earn at Least One Takedown
This fight is being hyped because of the potential for Cormier to push Jones in ways he’s never been pushed before. In one literal sense that’s true. We haven’t seen Jones have to fight off of his back much in his career.
He was taken down by Gustafsson in the opening round of their UFC 165 classic and pulled guard late in a bout against Rashad Evans. Those are the only two times we’ve seen the champion work from the bottom.
If Jones’ pre-fight talk and penchant for challenging opposition at their game is to believed, Jones doesn’t fear Cormier getting him to the mat. MMAWeekly passed along the champion’s thoughts:
I love the fact that people assume that if Daniel takes me down he wins the fight. I love how people assume that he needs to get close to me and then I’m suddenly at some type of a disadvantage. Honestly man, I’m so secure in my abilities as a fighter; in the clinch, dirty-boxing, my jiu-jitsu, my top game, my bottom game, about my wrestling.
Against a shorter, stockier opponent, there’s no denying that Jones’ safest path to victory would be to maintain his striking distance and pick Cormier apart. Jones isn’t always interested in safe, though. He wants to challenge himself.
Mixing it up with Cormier will do just that. However, it’ll also put him in at least one bad position. The Olympic wrestling background of DC may seem overplayed, but it’s a very real threat to Jones. He may not ragdoll him around as easily as he did Dan Henderson and Patrick Cummins at 205, but he’s good enough to become the second man to take down Bones.
Jones Will Ultimately Have His Hand Raised
It won’t be easy. Cormier is advertised as a challenger. Breaking down this bout, Cormier has tools that no challenger before him possessed. He’s knocked out heavyweights, and his ability to throw opponents around demonstrates strength that Jones hasn’t seen.
However, we haven’t seen Cormier dominate top-shelf talent in the light heavyweight division like Jones.
In a fight where there are few dominant edges, Jones has two that could ultimately be the deciding factor—experience and length. Jones will enjoy a 12-inch reach advantage against Cormier. For all of the challenger’s tools, it’s difficult to consistently overcome that in a five-round fight.
The second advantage is that Jones has been here before. He’s gone all five-rounds in title fights three times as opposed to Cormier’s one time in the heavyweight division. But even more importantly, he’s shown an ability to keep his composure in an emotionally charged fight.
The bad blood between Jones and former teammate Rashad Evans was well-documented, but it didn’t keep Bones from methodically beating him over five rounds.
Looking at Cormier pacing around at the weigh-ins, it’s a legitimate concern as to weather DC can successfully compartmentalize his disdain for the champion and fight with the composure it takes to win a title. Should he experience an adrenaline dump after a strong first round, the champion will slowly take advantage and own the later rounds.
As much intrigue as a Cormier win would provide for fans and the division going forward, there are more ways for Jones to win. That makes him the pick by unanimous decision in what should be a memorable fight.
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